Paul Douglas Updates Saturday morning:
Threat Increases for New Jersey, Metro New York, Long Island, Boston and coastal New England.
Don’t be misled into thinking the threat has eased because “Sandy” is a tropical storm. All the models show a rapidly re-intensifying storm tonight and Sunday as an approaching surge of Canadian air energizes the system; a dramatic contrast in barometric pressure producing hurricane-force winds into Monday over a broad, 200-250 mile wide arc approaching coastal Delaware, New Jersey and far southern New England. Sandy is still a force to be reckoned with, still a potentially historic storm from Cape May and Atlantic City northward to New York City and bedroom communities of coastal Long Island.
Latest models are strongly suggesting a heightened risk for New York City, Long Island, Providence, Cape Cod and the islands (Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard). The northward wobble I talked about earlier today continues, and there is now a 70-75% risk that Sandy will pass just south of New York City Monday morning.
The worst-case scenario for New York is a track just south of the city, with sustained hurricane-force southeast winds, capable of funneling water into New York Harbor and right up the Hudson and East Rivers. That scenario now looks considerably more likely than it did 12-24 hours ago.
UPDATE: Sandy has now re-strengthened to Hurricane force.
Sandy’s bringing its own stimulation and bail-out package to create jobs.
They’ll be bailing out the subway with buckets for months.
Re: “there is now a 70-75% risk that Sandy will pass just south of New York City Monday morning.”
I’m wondering what Paul Douglas is basing this on?
The National Hurricane Center now has the storm coming ashore late Monday on the southern/central New Jersey coast. Atlantic City? It’s toast. (Maybe this storm is Barack’s revenge on The Donald?)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
It’s been my experience over the past seven years (since Katrina created a new obsession for me) that the NHC is rarely wrong in its 3-day projections.
If the storm lands kerplunkt on Atlantic City, there’s about 90 miles of NJ coast that will bear the brunt of the storm surge to the north. NYC Harbor should be beyond the worst of it. Perhaps what we’re looking at here is the Pine Barrens temporarily transformed into Sandy Bottoms. Once again, America the Land of Exceptionalism dodges a bullet.
The full moon high tide at the impact should also provide a teachable moment – on rising sea levels later this century. To turn the ghost (goblin?) of Ayn Rand loose on the denialist Romney/Ryan fans on Wall Street – “Brother, you asked for it” (John Galt; Atlas Shrugged).
Perhaps Sandy will clean up Wall Street in a way the politicians refuse to do.
Re: “Perhaps Sandy will clean up Wall Street in a way the politicians refuse to do.”
Umm, much of Wall Street is now in Greenwich, CT if not in Midtown in high rise towers far above any level Sandy might inconvenience.
The closest we’re likely to come is with Occupy Goldman Sachs’ encampment at Lloyd Blankfein’s house. And OWS has a contingency plan for that.
http://www.occupybendor.org/news.php?1309
http://www.occupybendor.org/news.php?1313
Dr. Jeff Masters is upping his estimate for storm damage in an extensive and informative blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2277
Hey y’all,
Do you recall that crazy real estate guy who couldn’t stop commenting on the North Carolina beach erosion article that Peter posted? Well here is his neighbor down in Florida:
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2012/oct/26/sandys-waves-collapse-garage-2-mercedes-inside-stu/?partner=popular
Word on the internet street (i.e. gossip) is/was that that fella (Marshall Taschman) is one of those pain management doctors down in Florida who trades office visit fees for your choice and quantity of Oxycontin, Percocet, M.S. Contin, and other high-schedule narcotic pain pills people like to get high on: A ‘pill mill’ doctor.
Wrong! Wrong! WRONG!
Finding the humor in the grey skies, some twitter traffic on Hurricane Sandy:
“I should dress up as Frankenstorm and just carry around a bucket of water and throw it on people.”
“Hurricane Sandy would be a good costume if you had a firehose to blast children off your porch.”
“Not all the news from Sandy is bad. They are saying Congress won’t meet during this time.”
“Undoubtedly. name wise, Horrorcane > Frankenstorm.”
“Is it Frankenstorm or Hurristein?”
“A Frankenstorm is cool but I was hoping for a Dracucane.”
“Everyone ready for the Frankenpocalypsicane?”
“”There’s a run on toilet paper, a serious run on it. Don’t want to be caught empty handed” – best News promo about #Frankenstorm ever!”
“Watching two 5-year-olds. The Frankenstorm has arrived at my house.“
Tropical Tidbit with a daily update:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/comment.html?entrynum=579
Good discussion about how a hurricane is about to precipitate (sic) a snowstorm.
They don’t call it “global weirding” for nothing. 🙂
In the interview that Peter did with Jennifer Francis from Rutgers, Dr. Francis expressed a concern that the excess moisture released when the warmed arctic waters refroze would potentially cause problems. A Friday article in the Herald Tribune had this:
….
Jennifer Francis, a research professor and expert on Arctic climate at Rutgers, recently predicted that the milestone would give rise to “crazy” weather this year, triggered by blocking.
The unusual storm heading toward the east coast this weekend falls in line with that prediction.
“It’s exactly the kind of thing I was talking about,” Francis said. “I can’t say for sure this particular pattern was influenced by the ice loss, but it is certainly the kind of thing we were expecting to see more of.”
….
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20121026/ARTICLE/121029673?p=3&tc=pg