If you look at the pattern of melt seasons, one thing that is clear is that if you look at the standard deviations relative to the 2007 minimum, and then look at this year’s emerging pattern; it looks like the melt season is being pushed further into the Autumn. This could also be a longer melt season than usual possibly due to the stored heat in the extra exposed & darker water.
OK, my next dumb question. Via Slashdot, Russia’s new $1b nuclear ice-breaker can cut through 4m thick ice and will help newly emerging routes open longer.
Question: what scale of human-powered ice-breaking would we need to see for it to actually accelerate the melt by exposing more to the ocean and air? Or could it only ever be a completely marginal effect?
Hmm, thought as much – though it’s not direct sea ice loss I was thinking of but indirect cleaving / breaking up as new routes are forged and become commercially viable enough for there to be an interest in keeping them open. I know zip about current shipping intensity in the region, actually, or how it’s been changing… Hmm… from this PDF: these two graphs on shipping intensity. So variable over the season – I’d love to see how that’s been changing, or what plans are being made for change. The Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment it uses appears to have been based on 2004 data only, from a quick glance through the ‘shipping database’ PDF.
Re: “Question: what scale of human-powered ice-breaking would we need to see for it to actually accelerate the melt by exposing more to the ocean and air? Or could it only ever be a completely marginal effect?”
I concur with Morin.
To put things in perspective, at the height of the melt at the end of August an area of about 70,000 km^2 per day was melting this year.
That’s the size of the Province of New Brunswick in Canada, or of the State of Missouri in the U.S, or the Republic of Ireland.
In other words, whatever an icebreaker could do is a trivial rounding error compared with what Mother Nature is capable of.
Was there an Arctic storm recently? This year will shatter the 2007 minimum…
Neil
Neil,
The was a large 10 day cyclone in early August. And another 3 day storm was supposed to be kicking in on Sept. 7.
Looks like it’s going to buzz the tower.
Hmmm, 3.4 to 3.5 million square kilometers maybe?
Otter,
You’re already someone I want to bet against.
3.5 just blew past us. You’re already behind the curve.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2222
Let me set the hook, I’ll give you good odds….
Yeah, agreed. I’m playing it like the Price is Right betting in reverse, haha.
otter,
I’m betting 3.2 extent with a severe right hand flush in the current cyclone.
What are you holding in your hand?
If you look at the pattern of melt seasons, one thing that is clear is that if you look at the standard deviations relative to the 2007 minimum, and then look at this year’s emerging pattern; it looks like the melt season is being pushed further into the Autumn. This could also be a longer melt season than usual possibly due to the stored heat in the extra exposed & darker water.
I decided to see how things are in Greenland and found http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/
This is a new site for me but the photo of Jason Box, an IPCC contributor, is familiar.
Was he interviewed in one of the This Is Not Cool vids?
In any case, the albedo this year, even compared to the last decade is well below normal, implying greater absorption of solar radiation.
interview with Dr. Box featured here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHrVOnLKjuQ
more soon
OK, my next dumb question. Via Slashdot, Russia’s new $1b nuclear ice-breaker can cut through 4m thick ice and will help newly emerging routes open longer.
Question: what scale of human-powered ice-breaking would we need to see for it to actually accelerate the melt by exposing more to the ocean and air? Or could it only ever be a completely marginal effect?
I think it would be marginal. When the summer melt is going at full tilt, the loss of ice can be over 50,000 km^2 daily.
I imagine it would take a thousand icebreakers to match that.
Hmm, thought as much – though it’s not direct sea ice loss I was thinking of but indirect cleaving / breaking up as new routes are forged and become commercially viable enough for there to be an interest in keeping them open. I know zip about current shipping intensity in the region, actually, or how it’s been changing… Hmm… from this PDF: these two graphs on shipping intensity. So variable over the season – I’d love to see how that’s been changing, or what plans are being made for change. The Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment it uses appears to have been based on 2004 data only, from a quick glance through the ‘shipping database’ PDF.
Re: “Question: what scale of human-powered ice-breaking would we need to see for it to actually accelerate the melt by exposing more to the ocean and air? Or could it only ever be a completely marginal effect?”
I concur with Morin.
To put things in perspective, at the height of the melt at the end of August an area of about 70,000 km^2 per day was melting this year.
That’s the size of the Province of New Brunswick in Canada, or of the State of Missouri in the U.S, or the Republic of Ireland.
In other words, whatever an icebreaker could do is a trivial rounding error compared with what Mother Nature is capable of.
It looks like we have now passed 3.5 million square kilometers?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
And it is continuing down…
Neil