“More fundamentally, carbon emissions in the U.S. are declining. They have dropped 7 percent in the last four years. That started out as a result of the economic downturn, but it’s continuing. The two principal sources of carbon emissions are coal plants and burning gasoline, and we’re making enormous progress on both fronts,” he noted.
New regulations are one source of change and people’s preferences are another, according to Brown. “Fuel-efficiency standards are going up. The ones now on the books mean that new cars sold in 2025 will use half as much gasoline as cars made in 2010. In fact, cars in 2025 will have to average 56 miles per gallon [23.8 km per liter], and today’s Toyota Prius is rated at 50 mpg [21.3 kpl], so the new standards are pretty ambitious,” Brown explained.
At the individual level, too, the demographics of automobile use are changing, he noted. “The number of cars in the U.S. is actually beginning to decline, and even if it’s only by 2 or 3 percent it’s a trend. Young people are not part of the car culture in the same way older generations were, when cars were part of our socializing. Now young people socialize with smartphones and the Internet,” he observed.
“On the other end of the age spectrum, the baby boomers are beginning to retire, and when people retire their gasoline consumption drops between 30 and 50 percent because they end their daily commute,” he pointed out.
“I’m really bullish on the potential for cutting carbon emissions, and I don’t think the analysts have picked up on this yet, partly because they deal with economic models — so they miss some social trends,” Brown added.
Brown is also very bullish about wind power, which he sees scaling up quickly across the U.S., Europe and China.
“Three states in northern Germany have between 40 and 60 percent of their energy coming from wind. Two U.S. states — Iowa and South Dakota — are at 20 percent and climbing. Texas, too, is about to take off with a new transmission line slated to be finished in a year or so,” he noted.
In China, especially, Brown sees the potential of wind being realized. “There are eight new mega-complexes being built in China today and they will average nearly 20,000 megawatts. The largest will generate 38,000 MW, and when it is completed it will produce enough electricity to supply a country the size of Poland,” he explained. In comparison, the largest coal-burning plants generate up to 5,000 MW — while nuclear power facilities might reach 7,000 MW.
Nuclear, though, Brown sees declining worldwide. “The economics of nuclear energy are really becoming difficult as the real, full costs are being realized. Most people don’t realize that the nuclear industry has almost disappeared, so when you want to build a plant you have to search to find the people with skills, the parts, the manufacturing needed. That’s one reason why costs are going up. There just aren’t many plants being built in the West, and there’s not much of an industry to do that sort of construction,” he pointed out.
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I thought that a major contributor to the decline of CO2 emissions was the switch from coal to natgas.
While I’m pleased that the old, nasty coal plants are being shut down, I’m concerned about the impact of hydrofracking.
=> Shale Gas a Disaster for Climate
=> Air sampling reveals high emissions from gas field
“War time mobilisation” Yes. That’s essential now. Just think how much was invented in Britain in just 6 years of siege in the war…radar, computers, bouncing bombs, floating harbours…Anything is possible once everybody’s shoulders are agaist the same wheel.
7% less carbon emissions in 4 years (Japanese Times?) is just a drip in the ocean. It’s also due to the recession and higher fuel prices. The headline, “New World Climate Leader – The United States?” is vastly exaggerating therefore.