Texas is New Ground Zero for Skyrocketing Home Insurance Prices

Dallas Morning News (Paywall):

There’s no secret that Texas has a housing affordability crisis. Too few houses built after the pandemic, high land costs and mortgage rates and burgeoning population are among key factors.

Less evident is the increasing difficulty of homeowners to obtain affordable insurance. And that’s the reason for Texas policymakers to think proactively about the repercussions of extreme weather and outdated building and land-use policies on affordability and insurability.

Insurance is all about anticipating risks, and Texas’ staggering population growth and weather patterns have added new levels of risk. Decades ago, hail would land in an empty field. Now hail will hit a $500,000 house and $45,000 car, and an insurer will have financial exposure.

This year, Texas encountered 16 weather or climate disaster events with losses of more than $1 billion, the highest yearly count since 1980. As a result, Texas Department of Insurance statistics show that homeowner premiums rose 10.8% in 2022, the highest percentage increase since 12.9% in 2012

To reduce their financial exposure this year, some carriers no longer accept new homeowners insurance business in North Texas, are choosing not to renew existing policies or are linking homeowners insurance with bundled auto policies, according to a recent Dallas Morning News story. Other companies are increasing deductibles or changing coverage terms, potentially leaving unsuspecting homeowners on the wrong side of a claim.

Even with increased weather risks in the hurricane-prone Texas Gulf and other weather risks elsewhere in the state, Texas is a better risk market than California and Florida, where insurers are bailing out. Still, Texas ranks eighth in the U.S. for overall climate vulnerability, according to Environmental Defense Fund and Texas A&M University research. And that’s during this year when hurricanes didn’t queue up on the Texas Coast as they often do.

This should be a wake-up call that more frequent severe weather patterns are in the state’s future and could make some regions uninsurable or prohibitively expensive. Unfortunately, Texas’ disaster planning focuses on preparedness and recovery when it also needs to develop comprehensive plans to adjust building and land-use practices to offset the economic impact of bad weather on homeowners and insurers.

US Real Estate May be Overvalued due to Climate Risk

A Staten Island neighborhood, pre and post Hurricane Sandy. First Street Foundation photo

I posted recently about newly identifed “Climate Abandonment” areas, neighborhoods identified in a new peer reviewed study, where residents have moved out due to increasing local climate risk.
The most common risk factor is flooding, and typically, these residents don’t move very far – they want to hold on to family structures, jobs, community – but it means that within some areas, even relatively prosperous areas, there are pockets of at-risk housing that could be, or already has been, devalued – and those residents left behind will find their holdings reduced in value.
A separate study from Environmental Defense Fund, published earlier this year in Nature Climate Change, showed that significant blocks of real estate may be overvalued due to as yet unpriced climate risks.

Environmental Defense Fund:

new study published in the journal Nature Climate Changeexamines the potential cost of unrealized flood risk in the American real estate market, finding that flood zone property prices are overvalued by  US$121–US$237 billion. Authored by researchers from Environmental Defense Fund, First Street Foundation, Resources for the Future, the Federal Reserve, and several academic institutions, the study also examined how unpriced flood risk throughout the country could impact communities and local governments, finding low-income households particularly vulnerable to home value deflation.  

“Increasing flood risk under climate change is creating a bubble that threatens the stability of the US housing market. As we’ve seen in California in the last few weeks, these aren’t hypotheticals and the risk is more extensive than expected—and that risk carries an enormous cost,” said Dr. Jesse Gourevitch, a postdoctoral fellow at Environmental Defense Fund and lead author of the study. “These risks are largely unaccounted for in property transactions, encouraging development in flood-prone areas. Accurately pricing the costs of flooding in home values can support adaptation to flood risk, but may leave many worse off.” 

Currently, more than 14.6 million properties in the United States face at least a 1% annual probability of flooding, with expected annual damages to residential properties exceeding US$32 billion. Increasing frequency and severity of flooding under climate change is predicted to increase the number of properties exposed to flooding by 11% and average annual losses by at least 26% by 2050. The increasing cost of flooding under climate change has led to growing concerns that housing markets are mispricing these risks, thus causing a real estate bubble to develop. 

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