Earth Will Exceed 1.5° C Threshold. Then What?

But you knew that.
A creeping sense of dread suggests that even at the current level of warming, the actual effects are more severe than we hoped they would be, and prospects for serious impacts are becoming more real to humanity at large.

The energy transition is proceeding, but not nearly fast enough. Pulling carbon down seems no closer than it ever was.
The current El Niño seems to be heading into uncharted territory, and it’s unclear how much of this, but certainly some, is amplified by climate warming.

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Tariffs Tough on Solar, But US Domestic Producers Soaring

Like everything else, Trump’s trade policy is affecting the price of solar.
Near term, this could affect the spread sheets of clean energy developers. Longer term, as more US manufacturers jump in the space, could negate that objection that I’ve heard so many times, that “solar panels are all made in China”. (they aren’t btw)

Politico:

The trade wars are going electric — and the planet and your pocketbook might be paying the price.

From tariffs on solar panels to export controls on critical minerals, countries are dragging the entire electrification supply chain into growing trade tensions. Just last month, President Donald Trump issued broad restrictions on imported grid equipment — a move widely seen as the latest attempt to keep out Chinese-made technology.

Such trade barriers threaten to raise costs for companies, slow economic growth, and complicate ongoing efforts to address climate change and adopt renewable energy technology.

That isn’t a warning from activists; it’s coming from bankers, utilities and grid operators.

“Trade fragmentation makes green products more expensive worldwide relative to non-green products,” European Central Bank analysts warned earlier this year. “This undermines the adoption of green technologies, leading to higher greenhouse gas emissions in the global economy.”

Rising power demand and efforts to slash planet-warming pollution are boosting clean technology markets. But those much-needed goods are becoming pricier and harder to get as governments throw up trade barriers to protect domestic industries and counter China.

Industry data shows U.S. tariffs on copper have increased costs for wire by 11.4%, for switchgear by more than 4% and for capacitors that store power by more than 6%. Domestically made transformers now cost 10% more to produce than when Trump took office, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures.

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Mr Global: The Moment I Knew We’d Lost Our Way (Covid)

NIH: Selfless or Selfish? The impact of message framing and egoistic motivation on narcissists’ compliance with preventive health behaviors during COVID-19

COVID-19 is one of the greatest international health crises in recent years. Due to the highly contagious nature of the virus, the World Health Organization has recommended that people comply with a set of preventive measures to reduce the infection rate (e.g., social distancing, wearing a face mask, thorough personal hygiene). However, people typically differ in the extent to which they are willing to comply with such recommendations, as they imply certain personal restrictions. The present study aimed to investigate whether narcissism levels and message framing strategies affect individuals’ willingness to accept personal restrictions and, consequently, comply with a set of preventive health behaviors. Results reveal that people high (vs. low) in grandiose narcissism are less likely to accept personal restrictions and comply with preventive health behaviors, with negative (vs. positive) message framing constituting a more effective strategy for convincing such individuals to comply with said restrictions and behaviors. This effect can be explained through a more pronounced willingness of participants high in grandiose narcissism to accept personal restrictions to protect themselves (egoistic motivation) but not through a willingness to protect vulnerable people (altruistic motivation). Our findings suggest that individuals who remain uncooperative during pandemics could be more effectively addressed with adapted message framing strategies and incentives tailor-made for their distinct personalities.

War and Weather mean “The Crisis is Here” for Food and Fuel

Energy Analyst Jeff Currie points to a poly crisis in energy – not only the Strait of Hormuz, but the Red Sea affected by the US war for oil.

Meanwhile, another (arguably) war for oil in Ukraine is squeezing Russian oil, gas, and food supplies, while climate enhanced drought is choking off the major river systems of Europe.
The Crisis is here.

Below, Aljazeera report on European River traffic.

Cleaner Air, Better Brains. Renewables Make us Smarter

Almost as if they wanted to create more Fox News viewers.

New York Times:

The air in New York City has gotten a lot cleaner over the past few decades, and children are smarter for it.

That’s according to a recent study published by researchers at Columbia University who followed more than a thousand children between 1998 and 2020, testing their cognitive development from around age 1 until they turned 3.

During that period, clean air and climate policies substantially reduced local air pollutants like nitrogen dioxide and the fine particulate matter known as PM2.5. When mothers breathed cleaner air during pregnancy, their toddlers’ scores on mental development tests later trended upward.

As city policies limiting pollution from vehicles and buildings took effect between 1998 and 2016, local concentrations of PM2.5 fell by about 32 percent. Nitrogen dioxide, which worsens conditions like asthma, followed a similar trend. When air quality improved, so did toddlers’ cognitive development: At 3, the group of children born most recently averaged about 26 percent higher on a benchmarking test than the children born before climate rules took effect.

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Tornado Vid has Horror Movie Vibe

I don’t normally just post random tornado vids, but this one is kind of special.
There are two vignettes, and in both of them, the vibe is like one of those monster movies where the audience can totally see the Big Bad coming, first as evidenced by a few small, but ominous signs, gradually building, until you’re on your feet and screaming “Get the hell out of there for God’s Sake!”.

In Texas, Talarico Tiptoes Tightrope with Carbon Capture

Video above should start about 4:30, where Democratic Senate candidate from Texas James Talarico was challenged about proposing 2021 legislation, as a state legislator, what would have targeted limits for Texas’ carbon emissions.

Talarico answered that an “all of the above” approach leaning on carbon capture technology.

In a close race, Talarico has been touted as a Dem that could make a long hoped-for breakthrough in Texas’ MAGA dominated politics.