If you wonder why the Trump administration, and Energy Secretary and grifting Frack Baron Chris Wright have been so focused on sabotaging Wind Energy, this is why.
Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis:
Natural gas’ share of electricity generation in the market run by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) fell to a record low on May 16, dropping to just 3.1% of total generation. That day was not an outlier either; from May 13-17, gas’ share of daily CAISO output was less than 10%.
In 2021, gas’ generation share never fell below 20% and was 40% or higher on 99 of those 135 days. In 2025, the number of high-market-share days (more than 40%) dropped sharply, to 56, but gas’ minimum daily share still never fell below 20%. This year has been a different story. There have been 68 days already when gas’ market share fell below 20%, and there has not been a single day when gas accounted for more than 50% of CAISO generation.
Less gas-fired generation means less need for gas. The amount of gas used for power generation in California has fallen to its lowest level in at least 25 years. For the 12 months ending in March, the state used an average of 35.7 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas each month, a 34% decline from the average just three years ago in March 2023 and less than half the record high of 76.7 bcf recorded in December 2001.
The massive build-out of battery storage in the California market has played a key role in reducing gas generation. CAISO releases a monthly statistical report about installed capacity and generation totals for the prior month. Battery storage was not included in that analysis until August 2021, when CAISO reported that 1,500 megawatts (MW) of storage capacity were installed across the system. In its April 2026 analysis, CAISO reported 16,251 MW of installed battery storage capacity.
That capacity has changed system operations. Battery storage now routinely supplies 20% or more of system-wide demand in the evening, beginning to send power into the grid around sunset and continuing to discharge until late in the evening.
On May 16, for example, battery storage supplied 20% of demand from 7:05 p.m. to 11:10 p.m., time-shifting low-cost solar from earlier in the day to the evening. During that same period, gas-fired generation never supplied more than 3% of demand, a low unheard of even a year ago.
Another reason for gas’ decline is a rise in wind generation sent to California. In early May, power began flowing from the 3,650 MW SunZia project in New Mexico. The project is connected to the CAISO grid through a 550-mile-long, high-voltage direct current line running from the wind farm to south-central Arizona. There, the power is converted to alternating current and fed into transmission lines running to California. CAISO has purchased 3,167 MW of the project’s capacity, although imports will initially be limited by transmission constraints; it currently holds only 2,131 MW of transmission rights on the Palo Verde line into the state.
Still, the project’s start-up can already be seen on the CAISO grid. The system has set five new wind generation records since April 13, the latest on May 15, when output hit 8,294 MW, almost 1,600 MW higher than the record before SunZia power began flowing into the state. Importantly, the SunZia generation is likely to be strongest at night, sending power into the grid when gas demand has traditionally picked up. Looking again at May 16, gas generation in the 12 a.m. – 6 a.m. period averaged about 3,600 MW in 2025. During the same period this year, gas generation was roughly 560 MW—the equivalent of just one gas plant running across the entire system.
The difference was wind. This year, wind generation averaged about 7,000 MW during the overnight period on May 16, compared to just about 4,000 MW a year ago. That is bad news for gas.
Even more wind is on the way. CAISO is currently working on two transmission projects designed to bring up to 5,000 MW of new capacity into the system. The Southwest Intertie Project will have 2,000 MW of capacity and expand links between CAISO, Nevada, and Idaho; it is expected to begin commercial operation in 2028. The second, Transwest Express, is expected to go online in 2031. Designed specifically to bring wind generation from Wyoming into California, this project is a 732-mile-long, combined high-voltage direct and alternating current line.
Data from the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) short-term energy outlook projects that solar generation in California will top gas generation for the first time this year, with the gap widening in 2027.
