Month: May 2026

America’s LNG Dreams in Danger from Hormuz Fiasco

Consulting firm Wood Mackenzie posits 3 scenarios for how the latest war for Oil will play out – short, medium and long term impacts modeled.
An extended war plays havoc with Trump administration plans for global domination with US Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).

Wood Mackenzie:

Quick Peace scenario: LNG prices soften soon after a peace deal is announced, but global LNG markets are tight until summer 2027. LNG supply from undamaged Gulf facilities take time to return to full capacity, with delays to projects currently under construction in the region. The anticipated oversupply, albeit delayed until 2028, remains inevitable once the strait reopens from June, however.   

With a major expansion in global LNG capacity under construction, supply is set to increase by about 50% from current levels, restoring confidence in LNG and driving a new phase of demand growth in emerging Asian markets. However, the combined impact of short-term demand destruction and levels of new supply results in a market imbalance. US LNG cargo cancellations are likely to be required to balance the market, more than halving European prices by 2031. Prices then recover slightly between 2030 and 2035. 

Summer Settlement scenario: prices continue to increase through summer 2026 and remain strong well into 2027. Additional delays to Gulf projects under construction reduce supply further, but this only pushes the oversupply into 2029. As countries look to reduce their exposure to LNG, demand downside risk cannot be ruled out, potentially exacerbating the oversupply after 2030. 

Extended Disruption scenario: the global LNG market is fundamentally reshaped. Prices skyrocket, potentially reaching US$40/mmbtu if the conflict restarts. Persistent geopolitical risks and sporadic Strait closures could reshape the LNG market in the long term.  

Reshaping the Grid for Renewables and AI

Bloomberg has a crackerjack video production unit.
The piece above is a great historical overview of global grid development, and includes a discussion of last year’s Iberian blackout – which have spotlighted a vulnerability of renewables on the grid – the lack of spinning mass to even out fluctuations on the grid.
The spotlighted solution includes adding in some equipment to replace that mass – and below, Undecided has a nice discussion of Flywheels – a technology with a long history whose time might have come again.

Below, there are other solutions as well, involving Batteries, which seem to be good for damn near everything.

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In Asia: Hormuz Impact Accelerates Transition

One negative blowback: In Indonesia, expanded use of biofuels, specifically palm oil, could put additional pressure on forests.
Otherwise, big push into renewables, a feared revival of coal seems less and less likely.

Oil Price:

The Hormuz crisis has already triggered an electrification drive in south and Southeast Asia as consumers struggle with fuel price spikes and even shortages in some countries. Europe and Asia are accelerating plans to install wind, solar, and battery storage capacity to protect against the highly volatile oil and gas markets in increasingly uncertain geopolitical developments.

Investors overwhelmingly expect financing for renewable energy projects to surge in the wake of the Iran conflict, a new poll by the UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association (UKSIF) showed last week.

Investment firms managing a total of around $7.4 trillion (£5.5 trillion) in assets under management completed the UKSIF survey last month, which showed 87% of respondents expect both global and UK-specific investment in renewable energy projects to increase following the war.

The survey also showed 78% of respondents felt global renewable energy investments were now “less risky relative to oil and gas” after the outbreak of the war.

Greencentralbanking:

“Despite the narrative that LNG can provide energy security through diversifying supply routes beyond fixed natural gas pipelines, in reality, we’ve seen that this has not been the case with all the cards held by a few LNG suppliers,” says Amy Kong, energy transition researcher from Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA) in a media briefing. “In essence, we’re seeing the same problems with new dealers.”

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Why “Drill Baby Drill” is Not Happening

About Troy W. Eckard

Since 1985, Troy W. Eckard has dedicated his entire career to the U.S. energy industry, giving him a wealth of knowledge and expertise for qualified individuals who seek direct ownership of oil & gas assets.

Troy has been blessed, challenged, and seen major cycles both up and down! The company’s direction today is to aggregate, maturate, and prudently liquidate as we build wealth for our partners and our firm!

Below: Oil/gas veteran Matt Randolph aka “Mr Global” on the current Iran impasse.

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20 Years Out from An Inconvenient Truth

Truth generally ages well, and only gets truer with time.

Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth” debuted 20 years ago today.
It was apparently even more inconvenient than we thought at the time.
The fossil fuel barons have since made it clear that they’re willing to lock down the world in a global authoritarian state – if that’s what it takes to maintain revenues and, more importantly, control.

I took my family to see it at a theater about 20 miles away. After it ended, my son, then about 20, mused as to whether we should walk home.
I’d been following the science of the greenhouse effect since, well, since I read about the problem in Isaac Asimov’s “Intelligent Man’s Guide to Science”, when I was 10 years old.
It came up again in the 70s, when Jimmy Carter’s Global 2000 report mentioned it as an emerging issue in 1977.

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