My column in the Midland Daily News.
Alternative Title: I Iran the Zoo.
Implications are dire if war continues.
A lot of people will needlessly suffer and die, and it remains to be seen how much the global economy will be disrupted. America’s reputation and economy will be decades recovering, if ever.
Peter Sinclair in the Midland Daily News:
Can we talk about Oil Wars?
Has anyone noticed the pattern of the United States leaping into conflicts with nations that have massive hydrocarbon reserves?
Is there anyone who believes we would be attacking Venezuela or Iran if their primary export was broccoli?
Can we make an assessment based on the last 3 decades of experience as to the effectiveness of these adventures?
25 years ago, the Bush administration believed the Iraq war would be a “cakewalk”, and that, following invasion, Iraqis would rise up, throw off their government, and install a Jeffersonian democracy in Baghdad.
That war, of course, was a brutal, bloody, 6 trillion dollar quagmire.
Forgetting that sad history, Donald Trump indicated to an interviewer he believed that Iran would capitulate, the way Venezuela recently did, in a few days, and that the US would select a new leader that would “make Iran great again”.
In another interview, the President admitted that the officials he hoped would take over the reins in Iran had been killed in the first rounds of US bombings..
Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Hegseth have made public statements that they expect the war to last “4 to 6 weeks” – giving Iran a convenient timeline and blueprint for how to take the initiative in this conflict.
Knowing that timeline, and that an election is approaching, that this war is in large part a distraction from the Epstein files scandal, puts Iran in the driver’s seat, as they also know that, having bombed 7 or 8 countries now in the last year, the US is running short of key ammunition, especially missile interceptors, which are slow to manufacture.
It remains to be seen how much of Iran’s drone capability has been held back while the US punches itself out in the early going.
The unsustainable nature of utilizing million-dollar interceptors against cheap Iranian drones is not unnoticed in strategic circles.
China is watching, and quietly helping Iran replenish its drone and missile stocks. They know that every interceptor we fire over the Gulf is one we don’t have to defend Taiwan.
Republican congressional leadership or discipline has been non-existent, while military voices that might have pushed back have been purged or silenced by Hegseth.
This level of self delusion is making George W Bush look like Winston Churchill.
Meanwhile, the larger developing world is learning a deep lesson about the dangers of dependence on America in general, and fossil fuels in particular.
In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and cutoff of natural gas to Europe signaled the danger of dependence on unreliable partners for critical resources.
This week, former Department of Energy official Jigar Shah posted “The moves in Venezuela and Iran this year are accelerating efforts by oil importing countries to deploy technologies that destroy oil demand growth globally.”
In the wake of this war, he said, every solar company has now doubled in value.
China wins in this arena as well, with a surplus capacity to produce solar panels, wind turbines, and EVs that enable the world’s fastest growing markets to ditch their oil dependence.
A great example is Ethiopia, which has banned internal combustion engines, is moving strongly to EVs, and quickly expanding reliable, domestic solar, wind and hydro to power them.
Similarly, rapidly developing markets like Mexico, Brazil, Nepal, Thailand and Vietnam are leapfrogging combustion vehicles and going directly to EVs – both 4 wheeled and 2 wheeled.
India and Pakistan are adopting renewables, especially solar, at a much more rapid pace than China did at similar stages.
Canadians, having been insulted and bullied by the Trump administration, have dropped a 100 percent tariff against Chinese EVs, to 6 percent, and Chinese manufacturers may soon be producing inexpensive, high quality vehicles here in North America that radically outperform US offerings.
The world is now drawn not only to China for its products, but – with America now acting as an aggressive, untrustworthy, imperial bully – as a more attractive political and economic partner as well.
Donald Trump’s implementation of the fossil fuel industry’s agenda is destroying America’s reputation and influence globally, and showing the world’s fastest growing, most important markets the risk of continued reliance on the very gas and oil US fossil fuel oligarchs hope to sell them – leaving America, increasingly, like a decaying, bombastic, and blustering Blockbuster Video, trying desperately to force VHS tapes on an rapidly digitizing Netflix world.
