The massive winter storm bearing down this weekend on a large swath of the nation, from the Southwest to the Mid-Atlantic, promises to cripple travel, cancel schools and civic gatherings, and impose frigid temperatures on tens of millions of Americans.
But another worry is looming for those in the path of the storm: Power outages and the very human dangers that come with them.
Other winter tempests in recent years have laid bare the frailties that exist: Freezing spells that have crippled gas production. Surges in demand that tax the grid. The buildup of snow and ice that overwhelms transmission lines and stymies crews trying to help restore power. Extended outages that can lead people to make dangerous choices, such as driving on slick roads or using unsafe heat sources inside their homes.
“I think this has the potential to rank up as one of the more consequential storms we’ve seen over the last five or six years,” said Jim Robb, president of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).
The blast of winter weather, which is expected to begin delivering snow and ice on Friday across the Rockies and Plains, is likely to cause a wave of impacts as it barrels through the Midwest, Southeast and up the East Coast through the weekend.
By Thursday, forecasters already were warning that accumulation of ice — a reality predicted throughout much of the South — could weigh down trees and overburden power lines, leaving residents across numerous states to endure the winter blast without electricity.
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In addition, many homes in Southern states aren’t built for deep, sustained cold weather, said Julia Matevosyan, chief engineer at ESIG. “When it gets cold, then the heating becomes so inefficient, it actually draws more power than during warmer weather, and that stresses the system.”
Analysis by ICF, an energy consulting firm, shows that the main grid in Texas, which is run by Electric Reliability Council of Texas, will hit its peak demand between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m. on Monday. Across the Mid-Atlantic region, on the grid managed by PJM, which includes 13 states and the District of Columbia, demand is expected to crest from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. on Tuesday. That’s when the system operator anticipates it will reach the highest winter demand in its history.
PJM also warned customers that it may extend its winter weather alert through Jan. 30. That has prompted utilities and government officials to call on large energy users like data centers to prepare to reduce the amount of power they take from the grid.
“Definitely in the PJM system things are going to be extremely thin, and frankly we are concerned,” said George Katsigiannakis, a vice president at ICF.
The anticipated demand on Tuesday is almost 10 percent higher than the highest demand last winter, Mr. Katsigiannakis said. But PJM has not added many new power plants, batteries and other resources to its system. The Texas grid, by comparison, has added many new large battery storage systems and solar farms.
During recent winter storms, the freezing temperatures shut down many power plants connected to the PJM and Texas grids.
In February 2021, the main Texas grid experienced a huge failure that left many electricity customers without power for days. More than 200 people died in that storm.
Then, over the Christmas holidays in 2022, about a quarter of the natural gas power plants in PJM’s service area failed as snow, wind and subzero temperatures froze natural gas pipelines. Various types of power plants — fossil fuel and renewables like solar and wind — failed during both the 2021 and 2022 storms. But in PJM’s case, about 70 percent of the units were fueled by natural gas.
Back in the 1980s I always appreciated having a later morning commute in Massachusetts so that all of the early commuters would heat up and dry the roads with their tailpipes. As greater percentages of vehicles are EVs, some places will have to put more effort into keeping the roads clear and dry.