Energy Secretary Chris Wright is a fracking millionaire, so no surprise, he views every global problem as waiting to be solved with more gas and more drilling (and more profits for him and his friends).
So a big thrust in Trump’s energy policy has been pushing huge investments to expand Liquified Natural Gas facilities on the US Gulf Coast, and pressuring other countries, particularly in the developing world, to become more dependent on fossil gas and US exports.
There are signs that strategy may have some blind spots. Like, do developing countries really want to be dependent long term on a country (the US) that has now shown itself to be treacherous and double dealing to it’s long time friends, much less the rest of the world, that our President so delicately calls “shithole countries”.
Pakistan has witnessed one of the most rapid and unanticipated transitions to clean energy, driven largely by homes and businesses installing rooftop solar panels. In just a few years, the country’s electric grid transformed from negligible solar power to an expected 20% of all its electricity coming from solar by 2026.
What began as modest adoption under a 2015 incentive program turned into a mass phenomenon a decade later, with households, businesses and farmers rapidly turning to solar. While energy transitions are often imagined as a complicated political process that requires long-term planning, international climate finance or industrial policy, Pakistan proves a different story is possible: A revolution driven by market forces, rather than climate-driven or state-led green policies.
Solar adoption in Pakistan resulted from a “perfect storm” of supply and demand.
On the demand side, an unprecedented hike in electricity tariffs — up 155% in just three years — rendered grid power unaffordable for many people and businesses. Industrial and residential users faced sharp price increases as subsidies were withdrawn. Simultaneously, Pakistan’s economic crisis, high global fuel prices and mandatory fixed costs to maintain underutilized fossil-fuel plants compounded the spiralling costs.
On the supply side, global solar panel prices fell by nearly 50% due to Chinese manufacturing overcapacity, while Pakistan exempted solar photovoltaic (PV) imports from duties and sales taxes until mid-2025. Together, these factors made rooftop solar systems (also known as distributed solar PV) financially attractive.
In agriculture, the removal of diesel subsidies further tipped the balance toward solar pumps, while maintaining the grid stability made solar appear more dependable than grid.
The combination of these demand- and supply-side disruptions made solar an infrastructure of necessity. It offered cheaper, more reliable and more immediate energy relief compared to the grid. Pre-existing policies which supported this included the favorable net-metering policy — which subsidized customers to sell power into the grid at a price higher than just the fuel saving; legacy subsidy programs for off-grid solar for rural households and agriculture; and policies for development of utility-scale power plants.
Between 2019 and 2025, cumulative solar panel imports surpassed Pakistan’s total installed power plant capacity by 2 gigawatts (GW). Yet only a fraction of this was utility-scale (0.7 GW) and connected to the grid suggesting a paradigm shift in the country’s power sector, with rapid growth of small solar PV systems, the actual scale of which is difficult to estimate.
The speed of solar adoption in Pakistan has been unprecedented, says Jan Rosenow, leader of the energy program at the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford. “The scale of solar being deployed in such a short period of time has not been seen, I think, anywhere ever before.”
This became apparent last year, when solar imports to Pakistan more than tripled from just one year earlier, approaching $2.1 billion, according to datafrom Renewables First, an energy and environment think tank in Islamabad. The boom looks set to continue, since Pakistan has already imported 80% of last year’s milestone amount during the first nine months of 2025.
Pakistan has urged Qatar to divert 24 of its contracted LNG cargoes to the international market in 2026 for selling purposes, as the country grapples with a deepening oversupply of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The move comes in response to plummeting domestic gas demand, mounting financial strain, and growing pressure on the country’s gas transmission network.
The Petroleum Division officials involved in the annual delivery plan discussions say the proposal will be finalised by the end of October. The request falls under the net proceed differential (NPD) clause in Pakistan’s long-term LNG agreements with Qatar.
While the clause allows for the resale of excess cargoes, it offers little financial relief: Qatar retains any profit from international sales, while Pakistan must absorb any losses if the spot market price is lower than the contract rate.
Due to a sharp decline in demand, Pakistan is facing an annual surplus of 35 LNG cargoes, including 11 from ENI. This oversupply has triggered operational challenges, with excessive gas accumulation in the RLNG pipeline system. In recent months, line-pack pressure has surged past 5.17 billion cubic feet (bcf), exceeding the 5 bcf safety threshold and raising alarms over a potential system failure.
To mitigate the risk, authorities have shut down domestic gas fields producing between 270 and 400 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd). However, this solution carries its own dangers. Officials of exploration and production companies warn that some wells may suffer permanent damage after closure, and the shutdowns are already affecting the production of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
The collapse in RLNG demand has been particularly severe in the power and export sectors. As of October 17, the power sector is consuming just 486 mmcfd—far below its committed 800 mmcfd. The export-oriented industries have cut back even more drastically, with RLNG usage plummeting from 350 mmcfd to only 100 mmcfd. Officials attribute the decline to high RLNG prices—currently around Rs3,500 per MMBtu—and an additional 5 per cent off-grid levy of Rs570 per MMBtu.
The four major RLNG-based power plants—Haveli Bahadur Shah, Balloki, Bhikki, and Trimmu—were designed to operate as “must-run” units with a 66 per cent take-or-pay obligation, based on their high efficiency levels of 62 per cent. However, in 2020, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) approved a reduction in this requirement to 50 per cent. As per Power Division, the plants now operate under the Economic Merit Order, which dispatches power only from the cheapest available sources—rendering RLNG less competitive.
A long-predicted glut in global markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is beginning to bite, with some of the world’s biggest consumers declaring they have more of the methane-based fuel than they know what to do with.
Then in late November, LNG cargo trackers at Kpler GmbH, a Vienna-based analytics firm, said seaborne shipments to China were “set to drop for a 13th straight month on an annual basis, extending a slump in purchases as domestic output and piped imports remain strong,” Bloomberg wrote. Deliveries were expected to be 5.5% lower than the same month last year.
“China’s LNG demand has been soft this year, with buyers shying away from expensive seaborne cargoes of the super-chilled fuel in favour of cheaper piped gas from Russia and Central Asia. Domestic production has also been robust,” the news agency added. The “sluggish demand” from the world’s biggest LNG importer is fuelling concerns that a long-awaited global LNG glut is on the way, with several countries about to bring new projects online.
Analyses dating back years have shown renewable energy investment and deployment in China leading toward a global “Age of Electricity”. And now, utility technology specialist Gavin Mooney sees a variant on that trend shaping up elsewhere.
“Surging solar in Pakistan has led to domestic gas demand plummeting, and LNG imports are now being redirected elsewhere,” Mooney wrote on LinkedIn.
“Pakistan has imported around 45 gigawatts of solar panels in the last few years—almost equal to the total capacity of its grid. Solar’s share of generation is now similar to countries like Australia and Chile,” he added. “The result? Significantly lower gas demand. Gas demand in both power and industry has fallen sharply—in some areas by 40 to 70%. And this isn’t unique to Pakistan. The same pattern is emerging across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe as solar outpaces LNG everywhere.”
RLNG = regasified LNG