One of the earliest predictions, and now well observed effect, of climate science, is that “wet areas get wetter, dry areas get dryer.”
New research says drying is winning.
Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO data to show that the continents have undergone unprecedented TWS loss since 2002. Areas experiencing drying increased by twice the size of California annually, creating “mega-drying” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry/wet areas continue to get drier/wetter, dry areas are now drying faster than wet areas are wetting. Changes in TWS are driven by high-latitude water losses, intense Central American/European droughts, and groundwater depletion, which accounts for 68% of TWS loss over non-glaciated continental regions. “Continental drying” is having profound global impacts. Since 2002, 75% of the population lives in 101 countries that have been losing freshwater water. Furthermore, the continents now contribute more freshwater to sea level rise than the ice sheets, and drying regions now contribute more than land glaciers and ice caps. Urgent action is required to prepare for the major impacts of results presented.
Can be a cause of civilization collapse. Will be a factor in SHTF. Anybody willing to bet it won’t?
Civilization has always existed in pockets*. If I hadn’t grown with National Geographic Magazines (and my parents’ awareness) to show me the world outside of my local bubble, I wouldn’t have know how many hundreds of millions of people live on the margins, struggling to survive on a daily basis.
China will probably adapt by focusing more on water efficiency, aquifer management, and technology to filter (recirculate) or desalinate water. They are a can-do nation.
Some spots in the US are already starting to address this: Towns in California’s Central Valley are constructing explicit aquifer recharge structures to capture more of the rainy seasons’ output before it runs off.
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*One recurrent theme in science fiction—from The Time Machine to Woody Allen’s Sleeper to The Hunger Games—is a population of Haves spared from want while the majority (in the caves or the rubble or the outlands) live off of scraps.
I’d always used the analogy of the atmosphere as a sponge, and that global warming was making the sponge thicker. So when the sponge was dry, it was more capable of sucking water out of the ground, and when it was wet, it was more capable of deluging the ground when conditions conspired to wring it out. More wet and more dry. It hadn’t occurred to me that there’s only so much freshwater to go around, so if the sponge is capable of holding more of it, the ‘more’ it is holding came from the ground. More wet and more dry, but more dry than wet.
Excellent and informative video from PBS once again, here’s a little hopium at least for the wealthier countries:
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It could “contain enough fresh water to supply a metropolis the size of New York City for hundreds of years,” he told CNN, and raises hopes it could “alleviate shortages for coastal populations in the future.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/17/climate/freshwater-aquifer-atlantic-ocean-water-crisis
With 800 million people lacking access to safe drinking water and 2.2 billion facing unreliable supplies, desalination is no longer an option but a necessity.
https://smartwatermagazine.com/news/smart-water-magazine/desalination-a-turning-point-search-energy-efficiency
Not doing great:
Oil, coal and gas production plans bury climate change goals : NPR
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/22/nx-s1-5545645/oil-gas-china-fossil-fuels-climate-paris-agreement
Another important recent article:
Fossil fuels harm health from ‘cradle to grave’: Report
https://phys.org/news/2025-09-fossil-fuels-health-cradle-grave.html