For a long time, although the stats on solar energy growth have been spectacular, I have not allowed myself to hope the momentum would continue, or even grow.
It does seem, however. like this is happening.
A decade ago, MIT scientist Ray Kurzweil explained the plain math behind the compounding growth of solar deployment. The power of doubling every two years.
Current stats show this continuing.
Both in deployment and investment.
Since the beginning of the industrial age, the global economy has required more and more fossil fuels — coal, oil and gas — to power growth.
It is increasingly clear, however, that China’s aggressive efforts to sell batteries, solar panels and wind turbines to the world is on course to bring that era to an end, a new report says. The Chinese dominance of clean-energy industries is “creating the conditions for a decline in fossil fuel use,” according to a report by Ember, a research group focused on the prospects for clean-energy technologies.
The report includes a sprawling set of data to support its claim.
The scale of Chinese production since 2010 has driven the price of these technologies down by 60 to 90 percent, the researchers found. And last year, more than 90 percent of wind and solar projects commissioned worldwide produced power more cheaply than the cheapest available fossil-fuel alternative, they said. That cost advantage might have seemed laughable before China began pumping billions of dollars of subsidies into the sector.
“China is the engine,” said Richard Black, the report’s editor. “And it is changing the energy landscape not just domestically but in countries across the world.”
If Beijing is trying to wrest the future of energy from anyone, it would be the United States, the world’s biggest oil and gas producer and exporter. The Trump administration has eliminated almost all federal support for renewable energies and has pressured countries to purchase American fossil fuels as part of trade deals.
The falling cost of renewable energy, though, means that many countries, particularly poorer ones, have a strong incentive to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.
Just as I looked forward to universities ramping up their output of battery engineers fifteen years ago, I see practical knowledge of solar power installation and special configurations growing as fast as you can say “unemployed grease monkey.” Small African businesses are as flexible and adaptable as you’ll see anywhere, and learning how to correctly wire up solar arrays, or reconfigure a house/community for solar+storage doesn’t take that long (as technology goes).
And all of those cities going from streets full of loud, smelly and toxic vehicles to the soft whine of EVs will improve the quality of life of everyone who lives there.