Chinese Chickens Coming to Roost for Climate Denying Republicans

Above, Republican congressperson Bob Inglis, right after he lost his South Carolina primary in 2010, in large part because he woke up to the science of climate change and said so.
He made some statements about the direction that climate denial and clean energy denial would lead us – and 15 years later we can begin to evaluate whether his vision was clear.
Worth noting that not only have the technological trends become clearer, the continued warming of the planet has only accelerated, even beyond what was predicted 15 years ago.

Thomas Friedman in New York Times (gift link):

The Chinese simply can’t believe their luck: that at the dawn of the electricity-guzzling era of artificial intelligence, the U.S. president and his party have decided to engage in one of the greatest acts of strategic self-harm imaginable. They have passed a giant bill that, among other craziness, deliberately undermines America’s ability to generate electricity through renewables — solar, battery and wind power in particular.

And why? Because they view those as “liberal” energy sources, even though today they are the quickest and cheapest ways to boost our electricity grid to meet the explosion of demand from A.I. data centers.

It is exactly the opposite of what China is doing. Indeed, Beijing may have to make July 4 its own national holiday going forward: American Electricity Dependence Day.

You cannot make this up: Even Saudi Arabia is doubling down on solar power to meet the needs of the A.I. data centers it wants to recruit from the West, while Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” actually does just the opposite. It quickly phases out tax credits enjoyed by utility-scale solar and wind — as well as electric vehicle tax credits. This virtually guarantees that China will own the future of solar energy, wind power and electric cars and trucks, as well as autonomous vehicles.

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US Energy Policy on Roller Coaster

Businesses and investors like predictability.
This administration is bringing anything but.

Axios:

What to watch: Critics and clean-energy analysts warn the policies in the GOP bill could ripple across industries, supply chains and geopolitical fault lines.

  • Growth in solar, wind, electric vehicle sales, and clean tech manufacturing will likely decelerate, as investment stalls and incentives disappear.
  • Tech companies will face fresh challenges meeting AI’s voracious energy needs, especially as supply chains for gas-fired turbines remain backlogged into the 2030s.
  • Power prices may rise, with new projects delayed just as U.S. electricity demand climbs for the first time in 15 years. Wind, solar and batteries make up roughly 95% of the projects proposed to connect to the grid.
  • China could widen its lead in low-carbon energy sectors that are becoming increasingly central to global power and competitiveness, even as the U.S. retreats on climate change.

Reuters:

 U.S. power sector emissions are already at their highest levels in three years, but will likely climb further during the peak summer months as greater use of air conditioning systems drives higher generation from coal and natural gas plants.

Over the first five months of 2025, U.S. power sector emissions from the burning of fossil fuels were up 5% to around 640 million metric tons, according to data from Ember.

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Horrible No Good Very Bad Bill Will Kill US Technological Leadership

Exactly as intended.
Fossil fuel industry has grown weary of democracy and rule of law, and aims to remake the US as an theocratic, authoritarian resource colony.

Arnaud Bertrand on X:

This absolutely stunning chart comparison by the NYT might prove to be the most important geopolitical visualization of the 21st century. The two major superpowers are each cornering a competing energy platform. China bets everything on clean energy, the US on fossil fuels. It’s incredibly rare, probably even unprecedented in history, to see 2 superpowers making completely opposite trillion-dollar bets on the underlying technology that literally powers the world. Let’s see how it plays out… One interesting related statistic: 87% of the Global South’s new energy investments go to clean tech , so it’s pretty crystal clear which future they back.

RMI:

The revolution has begun. In 2024, 87% of Global South capex on electricity
generation will flow into clean energy, and the IEA expects new solar and wind
capacity to increase by 60% to 77 GW. Solar and wind generation has been growing at 23% per year for the past 5 years, supplies 9% of electricity generation, and is only 5 years behind the Global North. Electrification is already at 75% of Global North levels, and growing faster.

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Republican War on Science Goes Full Scorched Earth

CNN:

The Trump administration’s proposed budget seeks to shut down the laboratory atop a peak in Hawaii where scientists have gathered the most conclusive evidence of human-caused climate change since the 1950s.

The Mauna Loa laboratory in Hawaii has measured atmospheric carbon dioxide, which — along with other planet-warming pollution — has led directly to climate change, driving sea level rise, supercharging weather and destroying food systems.

The president’s budget proposal would also defund many other climate labs, including instrument sites comprising the US government’s greenhouse gas monitoring network, which stretches from northern Alaska to the South Pole.

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Senate Version of No Good, Horrible, Very Bad Bill Gives Hope to Clean Energy

Best case: Someone, no one will say who, slipped a “kill shot” for clean energy into the Senate’s version of the No Good, Horrible, Very Bad Bill over the weekend. It was stripped out in the version that was passed last night.
Anyone’s guess what happens in the House, but with any luck this tells us that some quick reality checking went on in the Senate about the real-world consequences of zeroing out clean energy – ie major damage to US economy, blackouts, brownouts, chaos and unemployment.
Similar to what happened to a suite of measures introduced in Texas this year, meant to pull the plug on renewables – that failed, on the strength of a coalition made up of Chamber of Commerce types, conservative property rights advocates, a few urban greenies, and even the fossil industry itself which needs the cheapest energy ( renewables), paradoxically, to power their extraction of oil and gas from the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.
Clean energy is showing some resilience in the face of the most withering assault that the fossil fuel interests can mount.
Let’s see what happens.

TipRank:

BMO Capital analyst Ameet Thakkar notes that the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act – OBBBA – is positive for First Solar (FSLR) as it removes the risk to reduction of 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit and that the company can continue booking $0.17/w of stacked credit vs falling to $0.07/w.

For SunRun (RUN), the solar lease eligibility for Section 48E ITCs – Investment Tax Credits – is also unexpectedly back in until 2027-end, and given high short interest and greater dependence on ITCs for residential solar economics to support the company’s balance sheet, the firm expects a strong positive reaction, BMO stated. Fluence Energy (FLNC) should also react positively as the Energy Storage/Batteries are largely unscathed from any changes to phase out timeline and FEOC changes that likely curtail utility scale solar in FY27, BMO noted.

John Ketchum in Fortune:

To maintain American dominance on a global stage, the U.S. must build 450 gigawatts of generation over the next five years—to put that in perspective, that’s the equivalent of adding enough generation to power 75 Miami metro areas or 11 Floridas. For context, just over 40 gigawatts of new natural gas and nuclear has been built over the last five years in the U.S.

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Senator Tillis Calls out Climate Denying BS Artist “Philosopher”

Alex Epstein is a pseudo intellectual phony that the fossil fuel denial complex has elevated to pundit status on the strength of his formulating the so-called “moral case for fossil fuels.”
You can think of “Philosopher” Epstein as “the smartest guy at the Frat House Kegger”.
Epstein has been all over Congress this week shilling for what I call the No Good Horrible Very Bad Bill.
One legislator that was not impressed was Senator Thom Tillis, who, (politely) called Epstein out as the phony that he is.

Research Proves: Joe Rogan is a Climate Disinforming Dumbass

Above, Joe Rogan raises a point of contention about climate change, pretending to have read about a study in The Washington Post that, he says, raises questions about human caused climate change.
In the video, Dr Michael Mann follows up and gently points out that if Rogan had indeed read the article, (on a study that Mann himself had reviewed) – then perhaps Rogan’s reading comprehension needs remediation.

Washington Post:

An ambitious effort to understand the Earth’s climate over the past 485 million years has revealed a history of wild shifts and far hotter temperatures than scientists previously realized — offering a reminder of how much change the planet has already endured and a warning about the unprecedented rate of warming caused by humans.

The timeline, published Thursday in the journal Science, is the most rigorous reconstruction of Earth’s past temperatures ever produced, the authors say. Created by combining more than 150,000 pieces of fossil evidence with state-of-the-art climate models, it shows the intimate link between carbon dioxide and global temperatures and reveals that the world was in a much warmer state for most of the history of complex animal life.

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Heat Domes, Flooding, Have Tripled Since 1950s

Penn Today:

  • New research shows that stalled atmospheric events linked to heatwaves, floods, and wildfires—driven by a phenomenon called  quasi-resonant amplification (QRA)—have nearly tripled since the 1950s.
  • QRAs occur when large planetary waves in the jet stream become amplified and trapped, causing extreme weather to persist over one region for longer periods.
  • Today’s climate models struggle to capture QRAs accurately, meaning they may underestimate the likelihood and severity of prolonged extreme weather events.

Presidential Distinguished Professor in Penn’s Department of Earth and Environmental Science Michael E. Mann, postdoctoral researcher Xueke Li, and other researchers offer fresh insight into the atmospheric mechanics behind these extremes—and troubling evidence that they’re becoming more common.

Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , the paper shows that a specific and destructive jet stream behavior, known as quasi-resonant amplification (QRA), is happening more frequently and is tightly linked to human-caused climate change.

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More Union Push Back on Awful, Horrible, Very Bad Bill

Ryan Charney of the IBEW union spoke up in support of Little Trout Solar farm near Rogers City, Michigan, a few years ago.
Union support was critical in getting this project permitted at that meeting. Major unions are now pushing back against Trump’s No Good, Horrible, Very Bad Bill, including IBEW.

International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers:

IBEW International President Kenneth W. Cooper issued the following statement on Senate Republicans’ draft reconciliation bill released Sunday night:

“This budget reconciliation bill is a direct attack on working families, shoveling tax breaks to the rich while turning its back on the people who power this country. 

“The IBEW strongly opposes any proposal that guts infrastructure investment, especially plans like this one that sacrifice existing economic development while providing no clear benefit to working Americans. At a time when we should be investing in energy independence at home, this bill forces our economy to rely on foreign adversaries while dramatically increasing energy bills for every household and draining local communities of the jobs they rely on. 

“Make no mistake, this bill will cost hundreds of thousands of good-paying construction jobs, billions of work hours, and hundreds of billions in lost wages and economic benefits to America’s middle class. 

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