The Oil Industry can stall, but ultimately can not avoid unstoppable market forces.
Climate scientists and environmentalists have warned that the bill could seriously harm air quality, jeopardize public health and accelerate planet warming by encouraging more fossil fuel use. But according to research firm BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025, there’s still some reason for optimism: EVs are expected to continue displacing millions of barrels of crude oil each year.
Even if the U.S. slowdown results in 14 million fewer EV sales globally by 2030, the broader transition towards cleaner energy will continue to march on across the world, according to BNEF.
In fact, the future of the oil and gas industry is looking weak, even though it managed to bag a chest-thumping victory this week in the U.S. with the passage of the Trump administration’s Big Beautiful Bill—that victory will only give petroleum companies short-term benefits. Over the long term, oil consumption is still on track to go down drastically and EV sales are expected to grow with new and more competent models.
According to BNEF’s economic transition scenario, the first million daily barrels of road fuel displacement happened in 2018 thanks to early adoption of EVs. Owners who bought EVs stopped visiting gas stations, meaning the petroleum companies started losing those regular customers. Plus, studies show the vast majority of car buyers who make the switch to EVs don’t return to gas cars.
It took another six years for the next million barrels of road fuel to get displaced—by 2024 the world was displacing two million barrels of road fuel per day. For reference, that’s almost equal to how much the whole of South Korea uses in a single day.
By the end of the decade, EVs are expected to displace more than five million barrels of road fuel per day. For context, the U.S. consumed around 20 million barrels of oil daily in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Had the clean energy policies survived, that number might have dropped even faster. But with Europe and China charging ahead with EV adoption, the U.S. will now be left behind.
This projected decline in oil demand means the world’s leading oil producers now have EVs on their minds. Big Oil has grand plans to become Big EV, as Business Insider said in 2023. The torchbearers of fossil fuels are already making huge bets on EV charging and the mining of lithium, a key raw material used in batteries.
Chevron said in June that it had acquired 125,000 hectares of land in Texas and Arkansas for lithium extraction. BP is rapidly purchasing charging hardware from Tesla and Alpitronic. And Shell Recharge, the oil company’s charging division, is already investing in charging stations worldwide. It opened its largest charging station in Shenzhen in 2023 with 258 fast-charging stalls at just one location.
The global momentum for EVs and other forms of clean energy means oil displacement will continue to grow, just without America in the lead
General Motors’ electric vehicle plans are already paying dividends. With a dozen models across multiple segments, the automaker is breaking sales records and chipping away at Tesla’s market share. And despite the expiration of federal tax credits and a generally hostile regulatory environment for EVs, GM isn’t letting off the throttle.
GM said on Monday that it will upgrade its Spring Hill, Tennessee, factory to incorporate the local production of low-cost lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries for its EVs. The Spring Hill battery factory is owned by Ultium Cells, a joint venture between GM and Korean battery giant LG Energy Solution, which is also the main battery supplier for several major car companies in the U.S., including Hyundai, Kia, Toyota and Rivian, among others.
Across the industry, lower-cost LFP batteries are seen as key to more affordable EV options. The largest single cost on any EV is its battery, and lowering those costs should bring car prices down as well.