“A small but non-zero chance” of 2 degrees above pre-industrial before 2030.
fuck.
World Meteorological Organizations:
Global climate predictions show temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Key messages
- 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record
- 86% chance that at least one of next five years will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average
- 70% chance that 5-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 °C
- Long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C
- Arctic warming predicted to continue to outstrip global average
- Precipitation patterns have big regional variations
The WMO report forecasts that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900.
There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024). And there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level. The report does not give global predictions for individual years.
There is a forecast 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5°C, according to the report. This is up from 47% in last year’s report (for the 2024-2028 period) and up from 32% in the 2023 report for the 2023-2027 period.
Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels.
These statistics are highly Optimistic! Can not back up my statement with data, however, will take bets.
Or simply Fuck!
Recent partial quote from a Gwynne Dyer op-ed:
Two years ago this month (June 2023) the average global temperature jumped by a third of a degree Celsius in a single month. That shook the climate science world to its foundations, because the orthodox predictions assumed about one-tenth of a degree of warming every five years.
The June 2023 event was “non-linear.” Like most major shifts in natural systems, the pressure built up and up, and then suddenly the system flipped into a different stable state. It took more than another year — until last December — to figure out what actually happened.
Ninety per cent of the extra heat in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels goes straight into the ocean. That heat was bound to affect the ocean currents, and sooner or later one of those currents would start returning very warm water to the surface.
The water gave up its heat to the air — and suddenly, two years ago, the low-level clouds over the eastern North Atlantic started to thin out, letting in much more sunshine to warm the ocean’s surface. This chain of events, where the warming we cause triggers further changes in the climate, is called a “feedback” — and since we didn’t cause it directly, we can’t turn it off.
So two years ago we got three-tenths of a degree of warming in one huge lurch — from 1.2 C to 1.5 C in June 2023 — and since then about one-tenth of a degree more in slow but steady warming. The average global temperature has been around 1.6 C for the past year.
Many scientists had hoped that we could hold the warming down to 1.5 C at least until the mid-2030s, but that’s already past. This means more and bigger forest fires, floods, droughts, cyclones and killer heatwaves, which is bad enough — but it also turns the future into a minefield.