Government forecasters issued their first outlook for the upcoming 2025 hurricane season on Thursday.
Experts at NOAA and the National Weather Service that it operates – including forecasters from the National Hurricane Center – are signaling another active hurricane season on the horizon, predicting 13-19 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes across the Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean, with 3-5 becoming Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes.
On average 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 Category 3 or stronger hurricanes occur in a typical Atlantic hurricane season.
NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above average hurricane season with only a 10% chance of a below average season.
Though above the long-term averages, the forecast is notably lower than in 2024 when experts issued their highest spring predictions since official hurricane outlooks beganalmost 30 years ago.
The 2024 hurricane season saw a remarkable start that included Category 5 Hurricane Beryl on July 1st –besting Hurricane Emily in 2005 as the earliest Category 5 on record in the Atlantic – and through middle July the busiest start in the 174-year hurricane record books.
Waters fell uncharacteristically quiet, however, after hurricanes Debby and Ernesto in the first half of August, and nearly 3 weeks passed between August 20th and September 9th – typically one of the busiest 3-week stretches of the hurricane season – without a single named storm, the first time that’s happened since at least 1941.
The season quickly made up for lost time in September with a barrage of backloaded activity culminating with Hurricane Helene in late September and Category 5 Hurricane Milton two weeks later. Helene’s catastrophic flooding hundreds of miles inland across western North Carolina and the southern Appalachians was the worst the region had experienced in more than a century. Helene was the deadliest U.S. mainland hurricane since Katrina, and together Helene and Milton were responsible for an estimated $113 billion in damages in the U.S.
By November, activity met hyperactive criteria and in total five hurricanes had struck the U.S., the most of any hurricane season since 2005.
The last two hurricane seasons have been dominated by extreme, unprecedented warmth across the tropical waters of the Atlantic. While water temperatures aren’t necessarily the be-all, end-all, the marine heatwave has been so severe that it’s counteracted other factors – such as a strong El Niño during the 2023 hurricane season – that would have otherwise dampened hurricane activity.
Mercifully, the tropical Atlantic came back to earth this spring and is nearing seasonal averages for the first time in two years.
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Climate change is not expected to increase the number of these storms globally. But a warming planet is thought to increase the chances of them reaching the highest wind speeds, bringing heavier rainfall and a higher likelihood of coastal flooding.
This year’s above average forecast is expected for two main reasons.
Firstly, sea surface temperatures are above average across most of the tropical Atlantic, although they are not as extreme as this time last year.
Warmer seas provide the fuel source for hurricane growth as they track westwards across the Atlantic.
Secondly, the natural weather pattern known as El Niño – which makes it harder for Atlantic hurricanes to develop – is not expected this year, according to NOAA.
Neutral or weak La Niña conditions – which favour Atlantic hurricanes – are considered more likely, though this early on it is difficult to say.
Other conditions have to be right for hurricanes to develop, and those aren’t possible to predict months in advance.
Localised air movements and even the amount of dust in the atmosphere can play important roles in shaping whether these storms develop or not.
“We can’t really predict all that stuff this far out,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist at Colorado State University, which has also predicted an above-average season.
But NOAA’s pre-season forecast is still giving scientists cause for concern – and not just because of the meteorological backdrop.
Since the beginning of President Trump’s second term, hundreds of NOAA staff have been laid off, with the aim of cutting US government spending and costs to the taxpayer.
This has left the National Weather Service – NOAA’s weather forecasting and hazard-warning branch – critically understaffed ahead of the hurricane season, several scientists told the BBC.
“I know that the people remaining are trying their absolute hardest to provide accurate forecasts, but when you’re reduced to such few staff, it’s going to lead to burnout,” said Zack Labe, a climate scientist who was recently laid off by NOAA.
The office in Houston for example – Texas is particularly vulnerable to hurricanes – is effectively without its top three management positions.
Other offices are struggling to maintain 24/7 operations. Experts with contacts at NOAA told the BBC of battles to get basic maintenance over the line, from computer systems to toilets.