Geophysical Research Letters 15 August 2006:
A new method based on global climate model pressure gradients was developed for identifying coastal high-wind fire weather conditions, such as the Santa Ana Occurrence (SAO)…..
This initial analysis shows consistent shifts in SAO events from earlier (September–October) to later (November–December) in the season, suggesting that SAOs may significantly increase the extent of California coastal areas burned by wildfires, loss of life, and property.
Hurricanes, storms, floods and other natural disasters caused an estimated $140 billion in insured losses in 2024, up from 2023 and one of the costliest years on record, Munich Re said on Thursday.
The year’s tally of losses from natural catastrophes covered by insurance compares with $106 billion recorded in 2023 and is well above long-term averages. It is also higher than a similar forecast by Swiss Re, published in December.
Munich Re, the world’s largest insurer, said the development shows that “climate change is showing its claws” as global temperatures continue to rise, contributing to more frequent and extreme weather events.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson in Yale Climate Connections:
Climate scientist Daniel Swain said on CNN that the Pacific Palisades fire alone may end up as the most expensive wildfire in history, and that he expected that collectively, the fires ravaging the region will be the costliest wildfire event in history. According to NOAA, the most expensive wildfire season on record (in 2024 USD, to account for inflation) was the $30 billion 2018 season, mostly because of severe fires in California. This included the most destructive wildfire on record – the November Camp Fire, which devastated Paradise, California, killing 85 and destroying over 18,800 buildings. That fire cost about $12.5 billion, making it the most expensive single fire in world history.
Before the fires were sparked, there were early “glimmers of hope” the home-insurance market might stabilize, said Rex Frazier, president of industry body the Personal Insurance Federation of California. Farmers Insurance, for example, last month increased its cap on sales of new home-insurance policies in the state from 7,000 to 9,500 a month.
Consumer advocates worry the latest disaster could stall, or reverse, such changes. “If these fires are not contained soon, they are likely to set back progress we’ve been seeing in California’s struggling home-insurance market,” said Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders.
It’s too soon to know the financial cost of the wildfires burning around Los Angeles. But the toll on California’s troubled insurance market could be enormous.
The fires struck just as California officials have been working to stop insurance companies from fleeing their state. That exodus, driven by rising losses from wildfires that have grown larger and more frequent, could accelerate because of this week’s fires, experts said.
“The California insurance market has been balanced on a knife edge,” said Nancy Watkins, an insurance expert and principal actuary at Milliman, a consulting firm. As homeowners begin filing claims, insurers that cover large numbers of dwellings in Southern California could see a drain on their financial reserves, forcing them to drop customers, be punished by investors or exit the state.
If insurers keep leaving California, it would drive up insurance rates that are already elevated and make coverage harder to find, said Sridhar Manyem, senior director for industry research and analytics at AM Best, a company that rates the financial strength of insurers.
There’s still gas being piped to those neighborhoods?
(Maybe the utility shut down the main valves but there is still some in the local pipes.)