Geothermal energy presently only meets less than 1 per cent of global demand. But the IEA, one of the world’s most respected sources of energy data and analysis, said that if governments and businesses invested the $2.8tn required to develop full geothermal potential, it could provide up to 8 per cent of the global electricity supply by 2050. “New technologies are offering the possibility of meeting a significant portion of the world’s rapidly growing demand for electricity securely and cleanly,” said Fatih Birol, head of the IEA.
He added that it was a “major opportunity to draw on the expertise of the oil and gas industry”. The idea of drilling wells to draw heat from underground reservoirs to the surface is more than a century old, but is now used at scale in only a handful of countries that have suitable sources close to the surface, notably the US, Indonesia, Turkey, the Philippines, Kenya, Iceland and New Zealand.
Two new technologies were offering to transform the sector, said the IEA. One involves artificially fracking rocks to create the conditions needed to inject and heat water. The other is a closed-loop system where water is contained within pipes that are built deep into the earth. The IEA said that “with the right support, costs for next-generation geothermal could fall by 80 per cent by 2035”.
Reaching this would require the overcoming of hurdles such as the speeding up of project approvals and achieving significant corporate investment.
At that point, it estimated that geothermal plants could generate electricity for around $50 per megawatt-hour, making them “one of the cheapest dispatchable sources of low-emissions electricity, on a par or below hydro, nuclear and bioenergy”. The IEA added that geothermal would also be “highly competitive” with solar and wind power paired with battery storage.
With continued technology improvements and reductions in project costs, geothermal could meet up to 15% of global electricity demand growth to 2050. This would mean the cost-effective deployment of as much as 800 GW of geothermal power capacity worldwide, producing almost 6 000 terawatt-hours per year, equivalent to the current electricity demand today of the United States and India combined
Geothermal can provide around-the-clock electricity generation, heat production and storage. As the energy source is continuous, geothermal power plants can operate at their maximum capacity throughout the day and year. On average, global geothermal capacity had a utilisation rate over 75% in 2023, compared with less than 30% for wind power and less than 15% for solar PV. In addition, geothermal power plants can operate flexibly in ways that contribute to the stability of electricity grids, ensuring demand can be met at all times and supporting the integration of variable renewables such as solar PV and wind.
The full technical potential of next-generation geothermal systems to generate electricity is second only to solar PV among renewable technologies and sufficient to meet global electricity demand 140-times over. This is a key finding of first-of-a-kind analysis of geothermal potential conducted for this report in collaboration with Project InnerSpace.Geothermal energy potential increases as developers access higher heat resources at greater depths. New drilling technologies exploring resources at depths beyond 3 km open potential for geothermal in nearly all countries in the world. Using thermal resources at depths below 8km can deliver almost 600 TW of geothermal capacity with an operating lifespan of 25 years.
If ‘IFs’ and ‘COULDs” were peas and puds, nobody would go hungry and beggars would ride.
Can be part of the solution.
So far I’ve been pleasantly surprised to see both the schedule and the cost reduction from Fervo’s steep learning curve. The primary bit of concern I have is that the water going through the fracked rock will pick up minerals—silicates, specifically—as well as heat. As it is cycled over and over the silicates may be deposited in the fractures (called a “skin”), effectively sealing them more quickly. That would affect how long a given pair of drill holes would last.
(This is not an issue for the piped water version of the technology, but installing pipe seems to make geothermal much more costly.)
That is correct, and the huge list of other difficulties and Costs does not change the fact it is a bluddy good idea. Unlike fusion, it actually can make a difference but only as a bell and whistle on the worlds energy requirements. Time frame is optimistic too.
A company named Deep Fission is working on boreholes one mile deep, with four bundles of uranium fuel rods (same as in light water reactors) at the bottom. The 5000 ft column of water gives 160 atmospheres of pressure, a mile of rock does the containment which, at the surface, needs an expensive aircraft-proof dome. When the fuel is exhausted, just put another four bundles on top of it. https://fire2fission.com/podcast/065-liz-muller-ceo-of-deep-fission/
Massless storage?:
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a63312135/structural-battery-unlock-massless-energy-storage/