If you read my last post, on whether Trump can stop the energy transition, do so now, then come back to this.
Don’t bet against an energy transition that will continue, and even accelerate.
The speaker mentions projections from the European think tank Rystad, which I think are still valid.
Taking a global view, a new narrative has emerged on the premise that 1.5°C is no longer a credible target for global warming. In Rystad Energy, however, we remain optimistic, as we believe several recent developments may have been overlooked by more pessimistic forecasts.
First, two new policy commitments that will curb heating have come into play: the global methane pledge made last year has the potential to curb heating by 0.2°C, while the follow-up pledge to end deforestation could reduce warming by a further 0.1°C. Second, disruptive technologies – referring to innovations that are cheaper and better than existing technologies – tend to penetrate markets much faster than anticipated. This is now the case for electric vehicles, which have seen sales numbers soar and which are likely to push gasoline and diesel cars out of the market within a decade or two.
The same goes for solar cells and wind turbines in the power market, which are now delivering power at a cost significantly below fossil fuel levels. Our studies of supply chain capacities show that solar PV capacity is poised to grow by 1000 GW per year in new installations by 2030, which is the capacity needed to deliver 1.6°C according to our calculations. A similar story is developing for wind and batteries, as the current pace of expansion will deliver the capacity needed to push coal and gas out of the power market in the 2030s.
Gerard Reid and like-minded pundits focus on the speed of deployment, and decline in costs, of solar, wind and batteries. They don’t say much about whether that is actually bringing about a concomitant fall in CO2 emissions. If they did, it would make talk of transitions or revolutions sound premature, at best. California has been a world leader in battery deployment; Texas has recently caught up with it in solar, and surpassed it in wind generation. Yet the emissions intensity of the California grid has been the same for the last five years, while emissions have actually gone up – more power is being used, more gas burnt. CO2eq went from 37.4 million tonnes in 2019 to 48.7Mt in 2023
Texan generation emissions intensity has gone down steadily – by 26% since 2018 – but since 2020 consumption has gone up slightly faster, so emissions are still rising slightly.