Month: October 2024

Late Summer, the Doyo, and NOAA

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In Traditional Chinese Medicine, there are five elements and five seasons, with the latter part of Summer considered a special time of year in the cycle of seasons and elements. Late, or Indian Summer is that fifth season – a special time between summer and autumn when there is often a glorious hot spell. Nature is rich and full — with apples and corn and harvests galore. This is also an important period of preparation and readiness for the work ahead and the darker half of the year.

In the Chinese system, the center is the direction associated with the Earth element and the word “Doyo,” (pronounced “dough – yo”) meaning life transition, is used to describe this time. Doyo relates not only to the summer-to-autumn transition but to the times of seasonal change, which come four times a year for about two to three weeks each, basically ten days before and after each of the two solstices and equinoxes. This period has some aspects of all the seasons, or elements so that it can seem a bit chaotic – often the weather can be “unseasonably” hot, cold or some other extreme during these periods.

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Column: Physics Finds a Way – the Science of Stronger Storms

The new column is 10 days late because the storms wouldn’t stop coming.

Midland Daily News:

After the last three weeks, it should be clear to everyone that hurricanes and storms in a climate-altered world are different and much more dangerous threats than what humanity has dealt with historically.

The Smoky Mountain region is still counting up damages from massive Hurricane Helene, that drove from the Gulf of Mexico, deep into the heartland, delivering 42 trillion gallons of water to mountain terrain already saturated from previous storms, hydraulically pulverizing billions of dollars of infrastructure, businesses, and homes.

For comparison, the previous flood of record in the area was in 1916, when, according to Accuweather, “The Swannanoa River at Biltmore rose to 21.70 feet, a record that stood for more than 100 years, until Helene sent it to 26.10 feet, breaking that record by 5 feet.”

Accuweather estimated Helene’s damages at $250 billion or more. 

Milton, which quickly followed, added another $50 – $100 billion in still-spiraling damage estimates.

Basic physics describes the factors that are turbocharging storms in a warmer world.

First, a warming atmosphere holds more moisture, which is latent energy for storms. Hot ocean waters are also like gasoline for hurricanes.

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Has an Exodus from Florida Begun?

Wall Street Journal:

  • Much of Florida’s housing market is cooling off because of a surplus of inventory and dwindling buyer interest. Analysts worry that a price correction in some cities could follow.
  • Surging insurance costs are pricing many homeowners out of the market. Insurance premiums in Florida are up as much as 400% over the past five years in certain areas.
  • Insurance premiums are likely to become even steeper following this hurricane season. Institutional investors are starting to sell some of their Florida properties because of the climbing insurance costs and the current interest-rate environment. This is another sign the market is approaching an inflection point.

Across much of Florida and especially along the western coast, a surplus of inventory and dwindling buyer interest are slowing sales and keeping homes on the market longer. That is cooling off what had been one of America’s biggest housing booms this decade. 

Tropical storms and hurricanes, increasingly hitting the state’s western coast, are making matters worse.

Wall Street Journal:

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.—Kellen Driscoll bought his home here in 2019, settling in the coastal enclave of Shore Acres. It flooded for the first time four years ago after tropical storm Eta dumped more than 3 feet of water.

Hoping it was a fluke, Driscoll tore out the affected drywall and started fresh. After all, the four-bedroom home built in 1960 had no flood history. 

But then it happened again, and again. Like many others in the community, he put his home up for sale in the spring of this year. After seeing little interest, he cut the asking price. 

On Friday, Hurricane Helene deposited more than 6 feet of storm surge in the neighborhood. The rushing waters ripped the “For Sale” sign off his front lawn, and etched a waterline that reached halfway up his front door, just underneath the doorbell. He reduced the asking price for a fifth time.

“We flooded here four times in the last four years,” said Driscoll, as he threw his television sets, furniture, appliances and other belongings to the curb. “I’m just hoping I can sell the house. It’s a good neighborhood for sure, but dealing with the floods is horrible.”

As the CBS report above notes, populations are still growing in many high climate risk areas. But that may be changing post Helene/Milton
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Shoe Drop: North Carolina Home Insurers ask for 42% Rate Hike

ABC News:

With many western North Carolina residents still lacking power and running water from Hurricane Helene, a hearing began Monday on the insurance industry’s request to raise homeowner premium rates statewide by more than 42% on average. 

A top lieutenant for Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey opened what’s expected to be multiple weeks of witnesses, evidence and arguments by attorneys for the state Insurance Department and the North Carolina Rate Bureau, which represents insurance companies seeking the increase. 

In over 2,000 pages of data filed last January, the Rate Bureau sought proposed increases varying widely from just over 4% in parts of the mountains to 99% in some beach areas. Proposed increases in and around big cities like Raleigh, Charlotte and Greensboro are roughly 40%. 

Across 11 western counties that were hit hard by Helene, including Asheville’s Buncombe County, the requested increase is 20.5%. The percentages are based on insurance payouts of years past and future claims projections.

After taking public comment, Causey rejected the request in February,prompting the hearing. In previous rounds of premium rate requests, the industry and the commissioner have negotiated settlements before a hearing. Before the last such hearing set for early 2022, they settled weeks earlier on a 7.9% average premium rate increase after the bureau had sought 24.5%.

Damage from Hurricane Helene near Asheville, North Carolina
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