If this summer has shown us anything, it’s that a storm doesn’t have to be even developed enough to be named, to have major destructive, climate juiced power.
Helene, though, is the real deal, and will deliver a blow across a wide area that is still recovering from this summer’s flooding.
Detailed post is at Michael Lowry’s Eye on the Tropics, excerpts here.
Michael Lowry – Eye on the Tropics:
Helene continued to steadily strengthen as it grazed the northeastern tip of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula Wednesday morning. The storm is on the cusp of becoming Hurricane Helene and is projected to deliver a devastating blow to Florida’s Gulf Coast tomorrow as a major hurricane.
Forecasts have been strikingly consistent showing a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) landfall in Florida’s Big Bend between Mexico Beach to the west and Cedar Key to the east. The official forecast takes the center of Hurricane Helene inland just south of the state capital at Tallahassee between St. Marks and St. George Island as a Category 3 hurricane Thursday night or very early Friday.
Helene is forecast to be a remarkably large hurricane, with tropical storm winds extending nearly 430 miles across as it nears Florida tomorrow.
Only four named storms this century have been as large as Helene is forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico: Irma (2017), Ike (2008), Ivan (2004), and Isidore (2002).
On its projected track, Helene is expected to deliver a life-threatening and potentially catastrophic storm surge to Florida’s Big Bend, with up to 10 feet of coastal inundation forecast for coastal Franklin County – including places like St. George Island and Apalachicola eastward to Alligator Point – and up to 15 feet of extreme surge-induced flooding into lower Wakulla County southward to Citrus County – including coastal towns like St. Marks, Steinhatchee, and Cedar Key.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
Again, the Saffir-Simpson categories that we all know and love are based solely on the highest wind speed, and don’t reflect the size of the wind field, the amount of rain, or the storm surge.