From Vermont to California -“Adapting” to Climate Change is Tough

Hard to fool-proof climate adaptation when there are so damn many fools out there. See above.
Below, in the best of conditions, California’s ongoing Park fire would have been difficult to hedge against. Even those who went thru previous fires and took precautions were taken off guard.
Below that, Vermont’s River Flooding, dredging Rivers is not a clear solution.

Washington Post:

The Park Fire demonstrates how years, if not decades, of weather patterns in a changing climate can converge to send flames raging through remote wilderness and mountain outposts at shocking speeds.

Historic drought left trees weakened or dead. Stormy winters washed debris into piles, while the rain allowed flammable grasses to thrive. Intense heat, smashing records across California this summer, dried everything out.

And then, there is the element of randomness in where fire moves after it ignites. Like most wildfires, Park was sparked by human activity. A witness saw a man push a burning car down a hill near a popular swimming hole in Chico’s Upper Bidwell Park, though the suspect told authorities it was an accident, according to local reports.

With winds flowing from the south, that meant flames fanned into some pristine and densely forested wilderness in Lassen National Forest, toward the southernmost peak of the Cascade range of volcanoes. The same treacherous terrain that made the area’s Ishi Wilderness a refuge for native Yahi people — a man named Ishi was the last of the tribe to remain there — allowed the fire to rapidly consume the rugged landscape.

Ecologists had hoped parts of the wilderness had experienced enough fire that they could weather the burn. One ponderosa forest studied for decades, known as Beaver Creek Pinery, was thought to be a prime example of a fire-tolerant and healthy forest, and scientists had been planning a prescribed burn in the area to see how it would fare.

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Florida, Gulf, On Alert for Potential Hurricane Debby

Michael Lowry in Eye on the Tropics:

On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center designated the strong tropical disturbance now moving across eastern Cuba Invest 97L, a procedural move that allowed NHC to begin running a specialized suite of computer models to better interpret its future strength and track.

Although the system has yet to form into a tropical depression or tropical storm, because it’s expected to do so and affect land areas within the next few days, NHC will likely initiate advisories for a Potential Tropical Cyclone later today, which will include tropical storm watches or warnings for parts of Florida.

If a tropical storm forms this weekend, the next name on the list is Debby.

Models struggle with 97L’s formation

Modeling the exact details of the tropical wave’s interaction with the complex terrain of the Caribbean islands is extremely difficult. We’ve seen the end result of this, which is a windshield-wipering of the forecast models from west to east and then again back east.

The first three minutes of this Accuweather report is a good descriptor on what can disrupt storms before they have a clear shot at the US mainland – the Island of Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Global Temperature Record Streak Comes to End, for Now

As the El Nino cycle fades, the streak of global temperature records comes to an end.
But don’t be fooled. We have taken yet another step-change in global temperatures, from which we cannot back down without a drawdown of heat trapping gases.

Zeke Hausfather in the Climate Brink:

Global surface temperatures have been on a tear since June 2023, shattering prior records by hereto unforeseen margins (0.3C to 0.5C above prior monthly records) in the latter half of 2023 and more modestly (0.1C to 0.2C) so far in 2024. All in all, we saw 13 new records set from June 2023 to June 2024, the second longest streak of new monthly records in the modern era (after the super El Nino event of 2016/2017).

However, the remarkable extent of the records set in summer 2023 set the bar was so high that it is becoming increasingly difficult for 2024 to set new records – particularly as El Nino conditions fade and the world potentially moves toward La Nina.1

With 30 of the 31 days now available from the Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset, we can say with certainty that July 2024 ended up with cooler monthly global temperatures than July 2023, by a small margin (~0.05C). see graph at top of page.

Wind/Solar Surpass Fossil Fuels in Europe

Guardian:

Wind turbines and solar panels have overtaken fossil fuels to generate 30% of the European Union’s electricity in the first half of the year, a report has found.

Power generation from burning coal, oil and gas fell 17% in the first six months of 2024 compared with the same period the year before, according to climate thinktank Ember. It found the continued shift away from polluting fuels has led to a one-third drop in the sector’s emissions since the first half of 2022.

Chris Rosslowe, an analyst at Ember, said the rise of wind and solar was narrowing the role of fossil fuels. “We are witnessing a historic shift in the power sector, and it is happening rapidly.”

The report found EU power plants burned 24% less coal and 14% less gas from the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2024. The shift comes despite a small uptick in electricity demand that has followed two years of decline linked to the pandemic and Ukraine war.

“If member states can keep momentum up on wind and solar deployment then freedom from fossil power reliance will truly start to come into view,” said Rosslowe.

EcoWatch:

Power plants in the European Union burned 14 percent less gas and 24 percent less coal from the first six months of 2023 to the first six months of this year, the report found, even though there was a small increase in demand for electricity following the war in Ukraine and the pandemic.

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How Batteries Help in Sudden Nuclear Outages

Predictably unpredictable nuclear outages are regularly irregular occurrences, for a variety of reasons.
Recent Texas event showed how new batteries can be a hedge against sudden wild cards.

From France, another example of heat waves playing havoc with power plant cooling systems.

Energy Live News:

The 2.6GW Golfech nuclear plant in southern France will cut its electricity production from 31st July until 5th August because of elevated water temperatures in the Garonne River.

EDF, the plant’s operator, announced that the reduction, initially expected to end on 3rd August, might be extended or adjusted based on changes in the weather forecast.

The energy giant said: “The planning and the duration of this reduction for environmental constraints will be modified according to the evolution of the weather forecast.”

In Texas, the large nuclear plant that tripped suddenly off line last week was fortunately backed by new Battery capacity.

RenewEconomy (Australia):

…last week a 1,322 MW unit at the South Texas nuclear facility suddenly tripped due to a fire in the switchyard.

According to Grid Status, which monitors grid operations in the US, the frequency excursion was arrested by a rapid response from the state’s rapidly growing portfolio of big battery projects.

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Start of Something Big? EVs Powering Homes, Grid in Maryland

People have been talking about the potential for EVs to be flexible, rolling batteries that can power homes during blackouts, but also become part of the larger grid on a daily, even hourly basis, when plugged in. (explainer above)
Important trial going on in Maryland.

Complete game changer if successful.

Canary Media:

For the first time ever, electric Ford F-150 drivers are getting paid to run their homes from their pickup truck batteries during peak hours to help meet grid demand. And the pathbreaking program is happening in Baltimore, a city better known for the creation of Old Bay seasoning and ​“The Star-Spangled Banner” than transformative grid policies.

When it rolled out the F-150 Lightning in 2021, Ford made a splash by designing a backup power mode: If the owner’s house loses power from the grid, the capacious truck battery can run the house instead. That’s a clean and quiet alternative to a fossil-fueled generator, but it hinted at something far more potent: What if you could put that battery to work all the time, for the benefit of not just the driver but the entire electricity system?

A lot of utilities are talking about this. California’s PG&E, for instance, is looking to enroll up to 1,000 customers in a similar residential pilot program, which it describes as 0 percent subscribed at this time. Other utilities have started programs internally, for employees or their families.

But Baltimore Gas and Electric, the local subsidiary of mega-utility Exelon, appears to be the first provider to actually enroll and pay customers for sending their EV batteries’ stored energy into their homes.

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