Mathew Cappucci in The Washington Post:
After a long stretch of silence, it’s looking like Atlantic hurricane season may awaken once again. Two areas to watch have been outlined on National Hurricane Center outlooks, including one that could become a problem for the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week.
The disturbance, located over the central tropical Atlantic, has a 40 percent chance of development according to the Hurricane Center. It’s rather disorganized right now, and different weather models simulate varying degrees of intensification.
By early next week, it will be closing in on the Lesser Antilles, the island chain that separates the open tropical Atlantic Ocean from the Caribbean Sea, perhaps as a tropical depression — the precursor to a tropical storm.
Behind it, another tropical wave has been highlighted by meteorologists as having at least a low chance of eventual development. It’s more likely to stay out to sea, but it bears watching nonetheless.
The disturbance, located over the central tropical Atlantic, has a 40 percent chance of development according to the Hurricane Center. It’s rather disorganized right now, and different weather models simulate varying degrees of intensification.
By early next week, it will be closing in on the Lesser Antilles, the island chain that separates the open tropical Atlantic Ocean from the Caribbean Sea, perhaps as a tropical depression — the precursor to a tropical storm.
Behind it, another tropical wave has been highlighted by meteorologists as having at least a low chance of eventual development. It’s more likely to stay out to sea, but it bears watching nonetheless.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season roared in like a lion, but has been unusually quiet as of late. In late June, Beryl became the southernmost, and earliest-forming, Category 4 on record in the Atlantic. By July 1, it was a record-early Category 5, as well as the fastest-intensifying storm on record in the Atlantic before September. Beryl eventually clobbered Houston with 80 to 90 mph winds.
Since then three other storms have formed, including Debby, which unloaded flooding rains from Florida to New York, and Hurricane Ernesto, which swept through Bermuda. But that was on August 17. There haven’t been any named storms in the past ten days.
Looking ahead, any storm that forms will have exceptionally warm water to draw energy from. Waters over large parts of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea are record-warm. The warm oceans serve as high-octane fuel for nascent storm systems.