Above, Sarasota still feeling long term effects of Hurricane Debby’s torrential rains.
Mary Anna Mancuso is a political strategist and a spokesperson for RepublicEn.org, a growing group of conservatives who care about climate change.
Mary Anna Mancuso in The Invading Sea:
Tropical Storm Debby might not have packed the wallop of a major hurricane, but she left behind unprecedented damage in her wake. As a Category 1 hurricane, Debby wouldn’t typically be seen as a catastrophic threat. Yet, some areas saw historic flooding.
Sarasota and Bradenton saw as much as 18 inches of rain, the fourth most in the state behind Ruskin (21.7 inches), Palm Harbor (20.34 inches), and Parrish (18.86 inches). At the Sarasota Bradenton International Airport, a National Weather Service monitor recorded 11 inches of rainfall, the highest one-day total since recording began in 1911.
When Debby made landfall, she brought the usual suspects: heavy rain, gusty winds and a storm surge. Debby’s deluge on Florida’s Gulf Coast broke records, turning streets (and golf courses) into rivers and flooding homes. The flooding caused by Debby serves as a stark reminder that the rules of the game are changing — and climate change is the new referee.
For decades, Category 1 hurricanes and tropical storms were generally considered manageable by comparison with Category 4 or 5 hurricane. They’d knock down some trees, cause power outages and make a mess of your backyard, but they weren’t expected to flood entire communities.
However, as the planet warms, the atmosphere holds more moisture — about 7% more for every 1°C of warming. The physics are straightforward: Warmer air holds more water vapor, and when that moisture is released during a storm, it can result in devastating floods. Which means storms like Debby are now capable of unleashing torrential downpours that would have been unthinkable in the past.
This trend isn’t just a fluke. Scientists have been sounding the alarm for years, warning that climate change would lead to more intense rainfall and increased flooding, even from storms that aren’t classified as major hurricanes.
As the cleanup continues and the reality of Tropical Storm Debby’s aftermath sets in, one thing is clear: The old assumptions about storm intensity and damage potential no longer hold water. The storms are evolving faster than our preparedness measures, leaving communities such as Sarasota and Tampa Bay vulnerable to devastating impacts from what were once considered “manageable” storms.
Karen Clark & Company (KCC) has estimated that privately insured losses from Hurricane Debby will amount to approximately $1.4 billion in the US, according to its high-resolution reference model.
The breakdown of the estimated losses includes $845 million from wind damage, $130 million from storm surge, and $440 million from inland flooding.
The estimate covers privately insured damage to residential, commercial, and industrial properties, as well as automobiles and business interruption. However, it excludes losses related to boats, offshore properties, and those covered by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
Hurricane Debby made its first landfall on August 5 as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80mph in Florida’s Big Bend region. It made a second landfall on August 8 as a tropical storm with 50mph winds in South Carolina.
Debby’s slow forward motion allowed it to deliver significant rainfall, leading to widespread inland flooding along the east coast. Rainfall totals exceeded a foot in some areas of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. As the storm continued northward, several inches of rain were recorded from Virginia to Maine.