Tropical Depression 4 looks like it will become Hurricane Debby Saturday or Sunday, and impact Florida north of Tampa as maybe a Cat 1.
Then it gets interesting.
It crosses Florida and heads out over water again, according to models, but then the storm stalls or meanders.
Recent history shows that this behavior is becoming more common, and it is significant because a stalled storm can then become a catastrophic rain maker, depending on how it sets up.
In 2015, Hurricane Joaquin did not make landfall in the Southeast, but as it dawdled off shore, pushed abundant moist air onto land and created a “1000 year” rain event in South Carolina.
Despite staying well offshore, Joaquin has wreaked havoc on the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. President Obama on Saturday declared a state of emergency in worst-hit South Carolina.
It is the sort of weather event expected only once in 1,000 years, Haley told an afternoon news conference in the capital, Columbia. She called it “historic rainfall.” The Congaree River, which flows south of Columbia, was at its highest level since 1936, she said.
“This is not an incident that we’ve dealt with before,” Haley said.
She said there had been three flood-related fatalities in the state and urged residents to stay inside. “If you are in your house, stay in your house. This is not something to be out taking pictures of.”
Here, Jennifer Francis on Storms that stall.
Stalling off the coast would make Debby a big beach-eater.