New paper discussed is here.
Some smart people pretty concerned about these findings.
In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 ± 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958[1], while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 ± 0.5%[2,3]. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened.
Concerning paper from Cornell about our global carbon sink – here is a 🧵on the findings:
The average CO2 growth rate during 2013-2022 was 2.42 ± 0.08 ppm per year.
In 2023, it increased to 3.37 ± 0.11 ppm per year at the Mauna Loa station (MLO) and 2.82 ± 0.08 ppm per yr 1/
The OCO-2 satellite observations showed a growth rate of 3.03 ± 0.14 ppm per year.
The higher MLO growth rate compared to MBL in 2023 indicates a potential CO2 source anomaly in the tropics.
Emissions increased by 0.1 to 1.1% in 2023 relative to 2022, which only partially explains the growth rate anomaly.
This suggests that natural carbon sinks in the land and oceans were significantly reduced in 2023.
Global temperatures in 2023 were 0.6°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels.
Extreme summer temperatures and droughts in the northern mid-latitudes contributed to weaker carbon sinks.
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Global emissions estimates are based partly on expectations that carbon sinks would soak up carbon dioxide and help mitigate climate change. They were not expected to shrink as much as they have.
The pre-print paper content, revealed today by its worried authors, shows that, despite relatively moderate El Niño and global greening at its third highest since records began in the 1980s, land carbon sinks absorbed about 0.44 gigatonnes of carbon in 2023 – the lowest level since 2003.
Over the period 2010–2022, the average land carbon sink level was almost 5 times higher at 2.04 gigatonnes of carbon per year.
Last year was the hottest year on record.
The problem with geoengineering tech that could cool the earth without reducing atmospheric CO2 is that the cooler oceans would start absorbing much more of that CO2 and become more acidic. Jellyfish would rule!
This threshold was predicted years ago; I’ve read many discussions of whether we had already passed the switch from sinks to sources. That discussion is no doubt what prompted this study to be done.