“I’ve never seen anything like it” seems like a catch phrase for the next century.
As we are now seeing, whether a new system actually develops into a hurricane or not is no longer an issue, as we are seeing hurricane level damages without the hurricane under a warmer climate regime.
It’s a new world.
It’s a scenario South Floridians know all-too-well. A major surge of saturated tropical air from the Caribbean will bring rounds of heavy rainfall and a prolonged, multi-day flood threat – but this week on the other side of the Gulf to parts of northern Mexico and much of South Texas.
And this time, the culprit won’t be a stalled front and jet stream energy, but a developing tropical system pinwheeling in from the southern Gulf.
As of 8 AM ET Monday, the National Hurricane Center gives this area a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days. Whether or not it becomes Alberto, the first named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, is inconsequential, as the impacts will be boatloads of rain to a state that’s water-logged on one side and water-starved on the other.
For parts of South Texas, the Lower Rio Grande Valley, areas of the Hill Country, and Big Bend, reservoirs are needing replenishing rains. Falcon Reservoir on the Rio Grande is less than 10% full – some of the lowest levels in 20 years – while Medina Lake in the Texas Hill Country, an important source for local irrigation, dropped to less than 3% capacity.
On the other side of the ledger, the Houston-Galveston area has been plagued by heavy rains and floods this spring and spots just to the north – like The Woodlands and Huntsville – saw as much as 600% of their normal May rainfall. The last thing many of these places need is another big rain event.
Hope it shifts west: Mexico really could use the rain.