All the major hurricane forecasts are now in, and all are projecting record numbers of named storms and hurricanes.
Below, Storm names line up for the coming year. Meteorologists expect to use up all the names on this list and then some.
Until the 2021 season, forecasters moved to their backup plan of naming storms after letters of the Greek alphabet when the year’s list of names had been exhausted. That only happened twice – 2005 and 2020.
In 2005, the year of Hurricane Katrina, there were 28 named storms. That forced the use of six letters of the Greek alphabet as names: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta.
The record-setting Atlantic hurricane season of 2020 saw 30 named storms. That forced the use of nine letters of the Greek alphabet as storm names: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta and Iota.
After 2022’s extremely active season, meteorologists decided to reevaluate the use of the Greek alphabet for storm names.
A meeting of forecasters at the World Meteorological Organization, which is responsible for developing lists of storm names, determined the continued use of the Greek alphabet could cause confusion, especially for people in the storm’s path. For example, Zeta, Eta and Theta, which sound similar, were used within weeks of each other in 2020.
In 2021, the WMO developed the following list of 21 supplemental names to be used in the event the Atlantic’s seasonal list of 21 names is depleted. So far, meteorologists have not yet had to use this list.
Most Americans still being poorly served by weather forecasters, the two reports below manage to have extended discussions of anomalous ocean heat without mentioning the word ‘climate”.
NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.
I’m more annoyed by Norcross’ repetitive use of “normal” as in “the waters are warmer than normal.” If he would occasionally use a phrase like “what they normally were in the past” (or some other phrase that indicated that “normal” has gone bye-bye), that would make a difference.
At least most talking heads are learning to avoid the phrase “new normal” as a bad way to describe ongoing changes in our weather systems.
Damn! I just realized that was a new Berardelli video, and right there Val Simpson keeps using the term “new normal” (instead of “more likely” or some other phrase that indicates change).