Month: February 2024

Sagan’s Pale Blue Dot Revisited

So, I’m up early today, to drive down to Brighton, Michigan and give this talk to a Church group.
It’s a Unitarian Church, of course.

Anyway, they asked me to talk about solar energy, answer some questions, and then, they asked if I wanted to do a reading.

Carl Sagan’s Pale Blue Dot was my choice.
Probably not bad to review from time to time.

UPDATE: Well, I almost made it all the way through without choking up – went over well, though.

Above, Sagan’s reading, below, his remarks at the Press Conference unveiling the image.

Carl Sagan – Pale Blue Dot:

Look again at that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every “superstar,” every “supreme leader,” every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there–on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.

The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of this pixel on the scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner, how frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds.

Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the Universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. 

In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.

Continue reading “Sagan’s Pale Blue Dot Revisited”

California Storm Strengthens Before Landfall Tonight – Buckle Up

Daniel Swain PhD at Weather West:

Unlike most winter storms that affect California, which more typically develop well to the west out over the open Pacific and often make landfall as they either maintain their strength or are already beginning to weaken, the storm slated to slam California starting later today will do just the opposite. This system did not really exist in coherent form out over the remote North Pacific, but is instead now rapidly developing “in situ” only 400-500 miles off the coast of central and southern California. This system will take the form of an explosively deepening surface low pressure center (or possibly a pair of similarly deep centers orbiting around a common center) just west of the Central California coast by late tonight. Several models are suggesting that this storm will meet the formal (latitude-adjusted) meteorological criteria for a “bomb cyclone” (i.e., a low pressure system that undergoes a rapid rate of deepening (at California’s latitude, around 17 mBb in 24 hours). Regardless of whether it meets the technical threshold, the main point is that this storm will be become rapidly stronger precisely at the moment it makes its closest approach to the Central Coast; this temporal evolution, plus its proximity to coast as it does so, will greatly elevate impacts relative to more ordinary California winter storms.

Now, North Carolina. Insurers Ask for 42% Homeowner Hike

Home Insurance is one area where everyday Americans are feeling the impact of climate extremes in their pocket books.
Starting in the obvious places like Florida, California, Texas, and Louisiana, but now working its way up the east coast as more and more powerful storms keep pounding vulnerable areas, but the rubes keep moving in.

Associated Press:

Last week’s bureau filing offered stark differences in proposed increases depending on where a homeowner lives. The bureau proposed an increase of 99.4% for properties in the beach areas within Brunswick, Carteret, New Hanover, Onslow and Pender counties — where structures are at greater risks from storms. Proposed increases on inland properties in those same counties would be 71.4% or 43%, depending on the ZIP code.

The bureau’s proposals in nearly a dozen far northwestern and far western counties, however, ranged from 4.3% to 8.5%. Proposed premium increases in Raleigh and Durham (39.8%), Greensboro and Winston-Salem (36.6%) and Charlotte (41.3%) were higher.

CTMirror (Connecticut):

Despite spending decades in the insurance industry, a few years ago I found myself in a position I never thought I’d be in: uninsured after heavy rains flooded my basement with sewage and untreated stormwater. More than a year later, I still lack the resources to return home.

I’m not alone. As my home state of Connecticut and the Northeast get battered by another storm, more and more individuals, communities, and even states in climate-vulnerable areas are being abandoned by insurance companies. Others, post-disaster, find they were inadequately insured as companies shift risk through low property value assessments or new coverage exclusions. As billion-dollar disasters become more frequent, too many people are left traumatized by the devastating shortcomings of the insurance industry.

Continue reading “Now, North Carolina. Insurers Ask for 42% Homeowner Hike”

Giant Parasol: Newest GeoEngineering Idea is Throwin’ Shade

Sure, that ought’a work.

See, doomers? Simple fix.

New York Times:

It’s come to this. With Earth at its hottest point in recorded history, and humans doing far from enough to stop its overheating, a small but growing number of astronomers and physicists are proposing a potential fix that could have leaped from the pages of science fiction: The equivalent of a giant beach umbrella, floating in outer space.

The idea is to create a huge sunshade and send it to a far away point between the Earth and the sun to block a small but crucial amount of solar radiation, enough to counter global warming. Scientists have calculated that if just shy of 2 percent of the sun’s radiation is blocked, that would be enough to cool the planet by 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 Fahrenheit, and keep Earth within manageable climate boundaries.

The idea has been at the outer fringes of conversations about climate solutions for years. But as the climate crisis worsens, interest in sun shields has been gaining momentum, with more researchers offering up variations. There’s even a foundation dedicated to promoting solar shields.

A recent study led by the University of Utah explored scattering dust deep into space, while a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is looking into creating a shield made of “space bubbles.” Last summer, Istvan Szapudi, an astronomer at the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Hawaii, published a paper that suggested tethering a big solar shield to a repurposed asteroid.

Continue reading “Giant Parasol: Newest GeoEngineering Idea is Throwin’ Shade”

EV Reality Check. Sky Actually Not Falling.

I just finished a new column on the state of EVs in the US, so look out for that. In the meantime – needed perspective in this interview with Corey Cantor, a specialist at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. (BNEF)

Latitude Media:

A recent slew of negative headlines about U.S. EVs makes it feel like the sky is falling on the market. Yet the data show robust growth. Combined battery electric and plug-in hybrid sales in 2023 were up 50% from 2022, while EV market share reached 9.5% in 2023, up from 7.5% in 2022, according to BloombergNEF. 

Still, there have been notable signs of changing expectations. GM and Ford have downsized their EV ambitions. Hertz sold off 20,000 Teslas. And Elon Musk tried to temper expectations in last week’s disappointing Tesla earnings call. 

Shayle Kann: Thank you for helping me make sense of all the public noise going on about electric vehicle sales in the United States and the outlook for them. Let’s start with what all the headlines have said. Can you just run me through the litany of recent news that has come out that is delivering a bearish sentiment to people who are looking to the EV market here?

Corey Cantor: If you went back to really September of last year, you’d be having so many bad headlines that you could fill up a whole episode, just reading takes from the Wall Street Journal saying things like “The EV bubble is deflating,” “Dealers complaining about EVs piling up on lots.” Even USA Today, I think, had a piece which isn’t politically or anti-EV in any way saying that consumers are not buying EVs despite the fact that there are generous tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. We’ve also seen specific models sitting on lots for a while. So you run the gamut, you pick the paper, people are saying that EV’s adoption is on the decline, but we at BNEF have a lot of data, so we can dive into that. I think the big takeaway when reading through these headlines and the way I like to think about it is, are EV sales actually going down or is people’s expectations of EV growth changed from where maybe it was a couple of years ago? And it’s a more macro conversation on what is a successful US EV transition and how do we get there?

I feel personally that 2023, based on the data, was a pretty successful year for the market and a lot of the open questions around 2024, but if you’re just reading the headlines, you might think the sky is falling that EV sales are actually going down. By the end of 2023, according to our data, EV sales were up almost 50% year-on-year from 2022 to about 1.45 million in total up from about 971,000. Now we’re counting both BEV and PHEV in our EV metrics, but impressive nonetheless.

Shayle Kann: So we’ll dig into that more. But I think you’re hitting on a key point that I’ve noticed in that reporting too, which is that people are talking about the EV market slowing down. The data doesn’t really support the EV market having already slowed down, at least through 2023. But what the reporters were reacting to was announcements about the future. And in particular, I think what was happening a lot in the fall, you could tell me if you feel differently, was that some of the major auto EMs were announcing, and this happened repeatedly, that they were going to scale back on planned production expansion. And so that’s an indication as you said, not that EV sales have already slowed down necessarily, but that their prior expectations of demand growth might be lower, which is still notable and we should dig into that. But it is a different thing.

Continue reading “EV Reality Check. Sky Actually Not Falling.”

Greenies: Please Don’t Amplify Big Oil Messaging on LNG

Greenies not always sharp on messaging.
“Biden banned/paused gas exports” is MAGA messaging meant to create confusion.
What’s actually happened is there has been a pause on a raft of new LNG facilities in the permitting phase, not plants currently under construction.
Bottom of this post, Energy Secretary Granholm gives some clarification. This pause has no impact on current Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports.
This is a good thing, and a first step to recognizing there is a problem for greatly expanded LNG capacity under current technology, due to the climate impacts of inevitable methane emissions in the process.

Emily Atkin on X:

First thing’s first: The Biden Administration did not “block the export of LNG to other countries.” No existing LNG facility in the U.S. is affected by this decision. The eight existing LNG export terminals around the country will continue to operate.

The Biden administration is also not stopping *new* LNG exports. None of the 10 new LNG export facilities that are already approved by the Department of Energy are affected by this decision. So not only will LNG exports continue — they will massively expand.

Continue reading “Greenies: Please Don’t Amplify Big Oil Messaging on LNG”

California Weather Event will be “Life Threatening”

El Nino has always meant extreme weather on the west coast. That’s only going to get more true with a changed climate.

Last time I felt this great a disturbance in The Force on Weather Twitter was just before the Texas Blackout of 2021.
If you live in these areas, take steps now.

Continue reading “California Weather Event will be “Life Threatening””

New 25k Tesla Planned

Reuters:

Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab has told suppliers it wants to start production of a new mass market electric vehicle codenamed “Redwood” in mid-2025, according to four people familiar with the matter, with two of them describing the model as a compact crossover.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed on a post-earnings call on Wednesday that the company expects to start production of its next-generation EV at its Texas factory in the second half of 2025.

That will be followed by Mexico and another factory outside North America to be decided later this year, he said, noting that ramping up production of the new vehicle would be challenging.

Musk has long whetted fans’ and investors’ appetites for affordable electric vehicles and self-driving robotaxis that are expected to be made on next-generation, cheaper electric car platforms.

Those models, including an entry-level $25,000 car, would allow it to compete with cheaper gasoline-powered cars and a growing number of inexpensive EVs, such as those made by China’s BYD.

BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s top EV maker in the final quarter of 2023.

Tesla on Wednesday said the next-generation vehicle would drive a new wave of growth.

“In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas,” Tesla said in a quarterly results report.

Musk had first promised to build a $25,000 car in 2020, a plan he later shelved and then revived. Tesla’s cheapest offering, the Model 3 sedan, currently has a starting price of $38,990 in the United States.

Continue reading “New 25k Tesla Planned”