I like watching Sam Evans, the Electric Viking, not because he’s a great journalist, but because he’s an energizer bunny ferreting out the latest news that other journalists are reporting on clean energy. Also, because Australian accents are automatically engaging and fun to listen to.
Here he pointed me to useful update on fossil fuel’s ongoing collapse, especially in Europe.
Europe’s coal electricity generation tanked by 26% and gas by 15% in 2023, according to a new report from energy think tank Ember.
That collapse resulted in an impressive 19% reduction in the EU’s power sector emissions. What’s more, for the first time, wind power, which grew by 18%, surpassed gas, which only accounted for 17% of Europe’s electricity.
Wind and solar power are now taking center stage. Together, they hit a new high, generating 27% of the EU’s electricity in 2023. Solar covered 9% of the EU’s electricity needs. With hydroelectric power also bouncing back, renewables reached a record 44% share of the EU’s power mix.
The EU accelerated its shift away from fossil fuels in 2023, with record falls in coal, gas and emissions. Fossil fuels dropped by a record 19% to their lowest ever level at less than one third of the EU’s electricity generation. Renewables rose to a record 44% share, surpassing 40% for the first time. Wind and solar continued to be the drivers of this renewables growth, producing a record 27% of EU electricity in 2023 and achieving their largest ever annual capacity additions. Furthermore, wind generation reached a major milestone, surpassing gas for the first time.
Clean generation reached more than two-thirds of EU electricity, double fossil’s share, as hydro rebounded and nuclear partially recovered from last year’s lows alongside the increase in wind and solar.
Coal was already in long-term decline, and that trend resumed in 2023. The temporary slowdown in coal plant closures during the energy crisis did not prevent a huge fall in coal generation this year, with a wave of plant closures imminent in 2024. Gas generation fell for the fourth consecutive year, and as coal nears phase-out in many countries, gas will be next to enter terminal decline.
In addition to clean growth, falling electricity demand also contributed to the drop in fossil fuel generation. Demand fell by 3.4% (-94 TWh) in 2023 compared to 2022, and was 6.4% (-186 TWh) lower than 2021 levels when the energy crisis began. This trajectory is unlikely to continue. With increased electrification, this rate of demand fall is not expected to be repeated in the coming years. To reduce fossil fuels at the speed required to hit EU climate goals, renewables will need to keep pace as demand increases.
The EU is firmly on its way to transition from a fossil-based system to one where wind and solar are the backbone. In 2023, 24% of hours saw less than a quarter of electricity coming from fossil fuels, a major step up from just 4% of hours in 2022. As this shift becomes even more evident, so does the importance of enablers of a clean power system. Alongside wind and solar growth, grids, storage and demand side response will determine the power system of the future.
While coal represents a shrinking percentage of China’s grid power, the absolute amount of coal being burned is still increasing. That means their CO2 emissions from their power grid is increasing (though they’re probably seeing a slight decrease in tailpipe emissions.