Ridley Scott’s 1982 Epic Blade Runner was set in 2019 – a little off for Androids to be watching “Attack Ships on fire off the Shoulder of Orion” – but looks like it may be getting the weather right for future Los Angeles, as throughout the film, it never stops raining.
But I will say, since last week, Weather twitter has been glittering like C-beams in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate.
I wanted to reiterate some recent findings from our own research specifically addressing extreme #AtmosphericRiver storms in a warming climate. 1) CA will more extreme ARs in a warming climate, mainly (~80%) due water vapor increases.
Extreme CA ARs in a warming climate will not only be more intense, but they may also have preferentially more southerly (deep subtropical) origins (like present one!).
Integrated vapor transport, a measure of AR intensity, may increase at a “super Clausius-Clapeyron” rate (>>7%/C), especially over Southern California!
Additionally, we also find that the most intense hourly rainfall *rates* within such extreme ARs will likely increase much faster than total precip accumulations–perhaps twice as fast! This is very important for flash flood/debris flow risk
As part of #ARkStorm 2.0 scenario research, we did find that climate change is dramatically raising the risk of a severe multi-week storm sequence capable of causing widespread, catastrophic floods (and has already doubled the odds!)
But, importantly, ARkStorm scenarios involve *much longer, more severe, and more widespread storm sequence than is currently occurring.* Good news? Feb 2024 isn’t an ARK2-like scenario. Bad news? A real such occurrence would be much worse.
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Below, Swain discussed his ARK storm studies with me a few years ago.
Again, a lot of water capture strategy needs to adapt to more erratic rainfall patterns. Rather than thinking in terms of a rainy season, some places would benefit to capture the less frequent but heavier deluges for multi-year storage. The generally dry Northern Territory of Australia, for example, could benefit from capturing as much as possible from the occasional typhoon.
Problem with harvesting that loverly monsoon is the flat terrain and lack of suitable holding area. Really really a shame!