Republican politicians continue to be driven helplessly before a renewed wave of climate denial and disinformation, even as critical independent voters harbor increasing uneasiness about repetitive weather extremes.
I know because of observations in conservative communities, and conservatives who have reached out to me with questions about climate change, that these findings have merit. Climate still remains a bit of a 9000 pound gorilla in the room for middle aged and older Republicans, but for the young, it is as much an issue as it is for Democrats.
The 2020 presidential election may have swung to Joe Biden‘s side thanks to fears surrounding climate change.
A new report from CU Boulder’s Center for Environmental Futures (C-SEF) revealed that many voters in the 2016 and 2020 elections were driven to cast their ballots based on climate change concerns. This influence may have won the Democrats the election in 2020.
The researchers say the same concerns could influence votes in the coming 2024 election.
The report concluded that if it wasn’t for the climate change issue, the Republicans may have won a 3-percent swing, enough to win the 2020 election.
“We analyzed multi-issue polling data from the voters in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. We found that how important voters considered climate change to be as an issue was one of the strongest predictors of whom they voted for in 2020, especially among independents,” the report said.
The report revealed that around twice as many votes are concerned about climate change than those who are not, with 57 percent of voters preferring a candidate who supports actions preventing climate change, compared to 16 percent preferring a candidate who opposed these actions, according to a 2023 Yale University survey.
“Voters who stated that climate change was a ‘somewhat important’ or ‘very important’ issue to them represented 67 percent of voters, and 77 percent of these voters voted for the Democratic candidate (Joe Biden). Therefore, climate change opinion represents an electoral advantage for the Democrats,” the report stated.
Additionally, many Republicans who see climate change as a key issue may have been swung in 2020: around a quarter of Republicans who thought climate change a “very important” issue voted for Biden.
“This is obviously information that politicians and advocates across the political spectrum will want to know, heading into the 2024 election cycle,” Matthew Burgess, CIRES Fellow and C-SEF director, said in a statement. “How to reduce political polarization of climate change is one of the questions our research group is most interested in currently, and this provides some insight.”
University of Colorado Center for Environmental Future:
We find that climate change opinion has had a significant and growing effect on voting that favors the Democrats and is large enough to be pivotal to the outcomes of close elections. We project that climate change opinion probably cost Republicans the 2020 presidential election, all else being equal. We are aware of many possible implications of our findings for policymakers and advocates from a variety of political persuasions. However, we do not editorialize about or discuss these implications. Instead, we lay out our methods and results as matter-of-factly and objectively as possible, and we let our findings speak for themselves.
Polling in recent years has shown that younger conservatives are diverging from their older counterparts when it comes to the environment. In an August Granite State Poll, 41 percent of Republicans ages 18-34 said climate change was human-caused, while just 11 percent of Republicans ages 50-64 said the same.
In fact, polling suggests that younger voters of any age bracket, regardless of political party, are prioritizing the environment and climate change more so than older Republicans. In a sense, it’s a harkening back to the Republican Party of the past.
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At the first GOP national debate, an ACC Action audience member asked the only climate-related question. Barnard said young people weren’t overly impressed with the candidates’ responses, though Nikki Haley did emerge with some authority on the issue by acknowledging climate change on a national stage.
“Is climate change real? Yes, it is,” she said. “But if you want to go and really change the environment, then we need to start telling China and India that they have to lower their emissions.”
That piqued the interest of Isaiah Menning, a senior at Dartmouth College. Recognition of climate change is one of the non-negotiables he’s looking for in a Republican nominee.
I’d have to delve into the process of this study to refute it, but the term “all else being equal” suggests a very large assumption on their part. It’d be nice to think the Republicans have screwed themselves irretrievably in the Presidential race, but multiple polls show Trump leading Biden in the swing states, which in our messed up system is the only thing that counts.
The economy is the leading factor:
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/economics-is-pushing-us-swing-voters-pick-trump-2024-01-16/
There are also definite signs that Democrats won’t vote in the numbers they did in 2020. There is very serious reason to be concerned about the election. I’d suggest considering not taking this study for granted, and for now at least, not taking its findings as absolute truth rather than wishful thinking.
Here I was hoping that the response to the Dobbs decision (overturning Roe v. Wade) would be the key in the US: It’s more personal and provides a more straightforward link to GOP politicians. Consider a campaign ad (like the one in Kentucky) that depicts the personal tragedies that have resulted from the cruel policies of the GOP versus one that tells you that the car you’re driving is part of the problem.
While I’m an atheist, I feel it’s rather pathetic that the Democrats seem to hang their chances for winning in 2024 running on the right for women to kill their babies in the womb. And of course, the Republican dominated SCOTUS preserved such a right at the state level as determined by their political leadership.
Trump will win in 2024 and get us out of the Paris Accords once again. He will put a stop to the AGW alarmism nonsense and we can stop wasting $Ts in a feckless attempt to control the weather.