Giant batteries that ensure stable power supply by offsetting intermittent renewable supplies are becoming cheap enough to make developers abandon scores of projects for gas-fired generation world-wide.
The long-term economics of gas-fired plants, used in Europe and some parts of the United States primarily to compensate for the intermittent nature of wind and solar power, are changing quickly, according to Reuters’ interviews with more than a dozen power plant developers, project finance bankers, analysts and consultants.
They said some battery operators are already supplying back-up power to grids at a price competitive with gas power plants, meaning gas will be used less.
The shift challenges assumptions about long-term gas demand and could mean natural gas has a smaller role in the energy transition than posited by the biggest, listed energy majors.
In the first half of the year, 68 gas power plant projects were put on hold or cancelled globally, according to data provided exclusively to Reuters by U.S.-based non-profit Global Energy Monitor.
Recent cancellations include electricity plant developer Competitive Power Ventures decision announced in October to abandon a gas plant project in New Jersey in the United States. It cited low power prices and the absence of government subsidies without giving financial detail.
British independent Carlton Power dropped plans for an 800 million pound ($997 million) gas power plant in Manchester, northern England, in 2016. Reflecting the shift in economics in favour of storage, this year it launched plans to build one of the world’s largest batteries at the site.
“In the early 1990s, we were running gas plants baseload, now they are shifting to probably 40% of the time and that’s going to drop off to 11%-15% in the next eight to 10 years,” Keith Clarke, chief executive at Carlton Power, told Reuters.
Online search queries related to “climate anxiety” have risen, according to data gathered by Google and shared exclusively with BBC 100 Women.
Studies also suggests that women are more affected by climate anxiety than men.
The rise of wildfires, floods and droughts around the world are just some of the highly visible signs of climate change.
What is reported less is the impact of climate change on human minds.
Climate anxiety – defined as feelings of distress about the impacts of climate change – has been reported globally, particularly among children and young people.
Data from Google Trends shows that search queries related to “climate anxiety” have increased dramatically.
Search queries in English around “climate anxiety” in the first 10 months of 2023 are 27 times higher than the same period in 2017.
There have been surges related to climate anxiety in other world languages over the same period.
Search queries in Portuguese have risen by 73 times
Search queries in Chinese languages have risen by eight-and-a-half times
Search queries in Arabic have risen by a fifth
These are not the languages with the most commonly searched queries around climate anxiety but are just some of the world languages the BBC asked Google to look at.
Searches may be higher among speakers of languages with greater awareness of climate anxiety, or among those who use Google most often and do not necessarily suggest that people in countries with bigger shares of search queries are more prone to experiencing climate anxiety.
The Google Trends data combines search queries for “climate anxiety” and “eco-anxiety”, terms which are often used in the same way but which have slightly different meanings.
Generation Atomic is a 501(c)3 non-profit organization, that works with its 501(c)4 political advocacy arm GAMMA (Generation Atomic Movement Mobilizing Alliance) to save today’s nuclear reactors and lay the groundwork for deploying the reactors of tomorrow.
A plan to build a novel nuclear power plant comprising six small modular reactors (SMRs) fell apart this week when prospective customers for its electricity backed out. Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS), a coalition of community-owned power systems in seven western states, withdrew from a deal to build the plant, designed by NuScale Power, because too few members agreed to buy into it. The project, subsidized by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), sought to revive the moribund U.S. nuclear industry, but its cost had more than doubled to $9.3 billion.
“We still see a future for new nuclear,” says Mason Baker, CEO and general manager of UAMPS, which planned to build the plant in Idaho. “But in the near term, we’re going to focus on … expanding our wind capacity, doing more utility-scale solar, [and] batteries.” NuScale, which was spun out of Oregon State University in 2007, declined to make anyone available for an interview. But David Schlissel of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis says, “The communities and their ratepayers have avoided a giant financial debacle.”
With nuclear stumbling, it’s never been more clear that any zero carbon scenario requires a LOT of wind and solar. Solar is easiest to build, but as a new report makes clear, a balance of generation makes most sense.
The global average capacity factor for solar in 2022, according to BloombergNEF data (which may well exclude some small-scale generation), was 13.2%, assuming the average new solar farm came online mid-year. In contrast, wind farms had a global average capacity factor in 2022 of 27.2% by the same methodology. Hydro plants ran at a global average of 40% in 2022, and geothermal at 68%. While new wind and hydroelectricity plants are likely to produce more electricity per megawatt due to technology improvements, low capacity factors are a structural feature of solar.
Solar is cheap (it is usually the cheapest source of bulk electricity) and easy to site, making it a quick technology to deploy. Tripling global renewables capacity by 2030 could be achieved with solar alone. However, because of solar’s low capacity factor and high seasonality, a rapidly- decarbonizing world that is overly reliant on solar while tripling renewables capacity will not see the same impact on electricity generation, nor emissions reductions, as one with a more diverse fleet of renewables.
There is even some danger that high solar generation in the daytime and in summer could cannibalize the returns of other clean power plants such as wind farms, preventing build and driving more fossil fuel use at night and in the winter. Addressing emissions requires a balanced deployment of clean power technologies, and consideration of the time of day and year when different sources are likely to be available – not merely tripling the capacity deployed. Wind and solar often have complementary output profiles, and solar generates more at times of year when hydro generation is often low. A mixed portfolio will also make it easier to remove the last 10-30% of emissions from the power sector.
Reasons why progress and price drops on battery storage will continue.
Above, breakthrough in Silicon nano-tech makes much more energy dense, faster charging battery possible.
Below, advances in Sodium ion technology promise batteries with no Lithium, nickel, or cobalt. Recharge News reports the new cell is “safer, more cost-effective and sustainable than ones based on nickel, manganese, cobalt or iron phosphate chemistries. It is also produced with minerals such as iron and sodium that are abundant on global markets.”
Swedish battery maker Northvolt AB has developed its first sodium-ion product, a technology that could cut reliance on scarce raw materials and lay the foundation for the company’s next generation of electric-car batteries.
The cell has a “best-in-class” energy density of more than 160 watt-hours per kilogram, and was made without any lithium, nickel, cobalt or graphite, the company said Tuesday. While the first sodium-ion cells are designed primarily for energy storage, coming generations may be able to deliver higher energy density for electric mobility.
“Our sodium-ion technology delivers the performance required to enable energy storage with longer duration than alternative battery chemistries, at a lower cost,” Chief Executive Officer Peter Carlssonsaid in a statement.
Northvolt’s new product, which is based on a hard carbon anode and high-sodium Prussian white cathode, is more cost-effective and sustainable than conventional batteries made with nickel, manganese, cobalt or iron phosphate, according to the company. And with better safety at high temperatures, Northvolt sees it as especially attractive for energy storage in markets such as India, the Middle East and Africa.
The company — Europe’s only major homegrown battery maker — is expanding EV battery production in Sweden and has plans to build factories in Germany and Canada. It has so far raised more than $9 billion in equity and debt, bolstered by more than $55 billion in orders from automotive clients including BMW, Volvo Cars, Polestar and Volkswagen. Northvolt has said it plans to eventually go public.
Even without major breakthroughs, MotorTrend reports how incremental changes will continue to push down prices and raise performance. Long, worthwhile article, brief excerpt here.
There will come a time when electric cars will routinely offer in the high hundreds of miles of range from batteries that last for decades and recharge even quicker than you can fill a tank of gasoline. Plenty of scientists around the globe are working tirelessly to make that sort of next-generation performance a reality. But those quantum leaps perpetually seem a couple of years away, which isn’t much good for anyone looking to buy an EV soon.
America’s transition to electric vehicles is running into an unexpected snarl.
A surprising crash in prices for lithium, cobalt and other metals used in EV batteries is hitting mining companies, which are suspending or delaying new projects and expansions. The disruptions are threatening to deepen shortages of those materials in coming years and hit the brakes on the Biden administration’s timeline for weaning the country off gas-powered cars.
“This situation is a bit dangerous because the mines aren’t going to get built,” said Anthony Milewski, chief executive of nickel producer Nickel 28, who is a longtime investor in battery metals. “We should be building those mines now and we’re not.”
An absolutely bonkers example of the bad-news bias (and a failure to take Econ 101) in econ reporting: The @WSJ observes that the price of metals used in electric vehicles are crashing, and somehow infers that it will create shortages and snarl adoption of EV's. pic.twitter.com/nG9eM8EEP6
Battery-grade lithium prices are down more than 60% this year, while nickel, graphite and cobalt have lost about 30%, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. A big factor behind the declines: a weaker-than-expected economic recovery after Covid-19 lockdowns in China, the world’s largest consumer of metals.
The sliding prices mark a turnaround from when carmakers rolled out ambitious plans to switch their fleets to EVs and metal prices rocketed higher in what many analysts believed would be a yearslong supercycle.
The enthusiasm reflected the huge potential for growth: Electric vehicles accounted for 8% of U.S. auto sales in the third quarter, according to Cox Automotive. The Biden administration has said it wants half of all new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030. This year’s plunge in metal prices shows getting there won’t be a smooth ride.
Mines can take years between discovery of a metal and production, meaning the slowdowns could result in material shortages in coming years and leave carmakers scrambling for scarce supplies.
For now, lithium supply and demand are relatively balanced. But by 2030, demand for the metal is expected to more than triple to 3.1 million metric tons and outpace supply by nearly 400,000 tons, according to Benchmark estimates. Cobalt and nickel are also expected to be in short supply.
Not all mining companies are worried about falling prices, given the volatile nature of commodity prices. Surging prices a couple of years ago caused producers to flood the market with supply, leading to a short-term glut in some materials that subsequently pushed prices down.
Prices for key battery metals required for the clean energy transition – such as lithium and nickel – have collapsed since the start of the year amid a supply glut and Chinese consumers reducing demand for electric vehicles.
RIO DE JANEIRO — Taylor Swift postponed an Eras Tour concert in Rio de Janeiro Saturday after a 23-year-old fan died during her Friday night show, according to a message posted on the singer’s Instagram.
“I’m writing this from my dressing room in the stadium. The decision has been made to postpone tonight’s show due to the extreme temperatures in Rio,” the singer said in a handwritten note on Instagram. “The safety and well being of my fans, fellow performers, and crew has to and always will come first.”
– Fans who attended the Friday show said they were not allowed to bring water bottles into the stadium even though Rio and most of Brazil have had record-breaking temperatures this week amid a dangerous and lasting heat wave. The daytime high in Rio on Friday was 39.1 degrees Celsius (102.4 degrees Fahrenheit), but it felt much hotter. –
Apparent temperature — a combination of temperature and humidity — hit 59 C (138 F) Friday morning in Rio, the highest index ever recorded there.
Elizabeth Morin, 26, who recently moved to Rio from Los Angeles, described “sauna-like” conditions inside the stadium.
“It was extremely hot. My hair got so wet from sweat as soon as I came in,” she said. “There was a point at which I had to check my breathing to make sure I wasn’t going to pass out.”
Morin said she drank plenty of water but saw “a good amount of people looking distressed” and others “yelling for water.” She said she was able to get water from the sidelines of the area she was standing in, but that water was a lot harder to access from other parts of the stadium, “especially if you were concerned about losing your specific position.”
During the show, Swift paused her performance and asked from the stage for water to be brought to a group of people who had successfully caught the singer’s attention, according to Morin.
“They were holding up their phones saying ‘We need water,'” she recalled
The fiery freshman lawmaker’s victory Sunday night has thrust the country into the unknown regarding how extreme his policies will be following a campaign in which he revved a chainsaw to symbolically cut the state down to size.
With almost all votes tallied, Milei handily beat Economy Minister Sergio Massa, 55.7% to 44.3%. Milei won all but three of the nation’s 24 provinces, and Massa conceded even before the electoral authority began announcing the preliminary results.
Milei, 53, a libertarian economist, started to outline some of his planned policies on Monday morning. He said in a radio interview that would quickly move forward with plans to privatize state-run media outlets he received negative coverage from during his campaign and which he deemed “a covert ministry of propaganda.”
The president-elect also said that state-controlled energy firm YPF should eventually be privatized but first must be repaired so it can be “sold in a very, very, very beneficial way for Argentines.”
“Everything that can be in the hands of the private sector will be in the hands of the private sector,” he told Bueno Aires station Radio Mitre.
Milei, a self-described anarcho-capitalist with a disheveled mop of hair, made his name by furiously denouncing the “political caste” on television programs. His pledge for abrupt, severe change resonated with Argentines weary of annual inflation soaring above 140% and a poverty rate that reached 40%.
Once in office, he has said he would slash government spending, dollarize the economy and eliminate the Central Bank as well as key ministries, including those of health and education.
An admirer of former U.S. President Donald Trump, Milei has likewise presented himself as a crusader against the sinister creep of global socialism with plans to purge the government of corrupt establishment politicians. In the weeks before the runoff, though, he walked back some of his more unpopular proposals, such as loosening gun controls and sweeping, indiscriminate privatization.
“To decarbonize our energy grid, we need about a thousand gigawatts of solar deployment, up from a hundred fifty gigawatts today. That doesn’t require a ton of land, about six million acres of land, or only about a third of a percent of all the land in the contiguous United States.”
Dr. Becca Jones-Albertus, Director, Solar Energy Technologies Office, US Department of Energy
Above, big energy companies seeing a combination of Agriculture and solar as a win-win. No one should oversell this just yet. It is a long way from being able to grow corn or soybeans under solar panels. Some leafy green crops do well under panels, but there is more development to be done on seeding, cultivation and harvesting techniques that will fit with a solar array. Raising solar panels high enough to allow large farm machinery would be significantly more expensive.
Sheep grazing is a good fit at this time, as the sheep are small enough to graze under the panels, and docile enough that they do not damage the equipment. Below, Aaron Ostrander is a young farmer in Azalia, Michigan, hoping to combine solar panels with grazing.
