they form far offshore, many days before they can threaten much more than a passing ship
scientists study them and develop forecasts of their future path and strength
while they wait, people have days to hunker down or evacuate, if need be, depending on the storm’s expected power
Climate change is disrupting that rhythm in dangerous ways. It isn’t necessarily making hurricanes more frequent, but it is making them much more likely to develop into Otis-like monsters overnight.
The fastest-strengthening Atlantic tropical storms intensified almost 29% more quickly, on average, between 2001 and 2020 than similar storms 30 years earlier, according to a study published last week in the Nature journal Scientific Reports. The number of storms that have gone from a Category 1 or weaker to a Category 3 or stronger in just 36 hours has more than doubled in that time. Prime examples include 2017’s deadly Hurricane Maria; Harvey and Irma from that same year; Ida in 2021 and Ian in 2022.
How has climate change made this more likely? The oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the heat humans have created by burning fossil fuels and releasing carbon dioxide and other planet-warming greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. That has pushed ocean water to record highs. And that superheated water is like funny-car fuel for hurricanes.
Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.
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These results suggest that a storm that intensifies 60 kt in the 24 h just before landfall, occurring on average once per century in the climate of the late twentieth century, may occur every 5–10 years by the end of this century, while 24-h prelandfall intensifications of 100 kt, which are essentially nonexistent in the late twentieth-century climate, may occur as frequently as once per century by the end of this century. Even holding the overall basin frequency constant, the incidence of storms that intensify rapidly just before landfall increases substantially as a result of global warming.
There’s a strong possibility that hurricanes may become less frequent if global warming leads to stronger wind shear as that should disrupt storm formation.
I’d rather we not find out, one way or the other
The storms that survive wind shear are going to be much stronger. We may not notice or care that there are fewer of them.
Also, with rapid intensification (RI) being much more rapid, that affects time to implement civil response efforts (setting up evacuation routes, prepping city infrastructure, etc.).
Then there’s the likes of Tropical Storm Alison hitting Houston where wind speed is less of an issue than a storm just pumping lots water out of the sea and dumping it on land.
And Otis hit in a place that isn’t used to hurricanes in the first place.
There’s a strong possibility that hurricanes may become less frequent if global warming leads to stronger wind shear as that should disrupt storm formation.
I’d rather we not find out, one way or the other
The storms that survive wind shear are going to be much stronger. We may not notice or care that there are fewer of them.
Also, with rapid intensification (RI) being much more rapid, that affects time to implement civil response efforts (setting up evacuation routes, prepping city infrastructure, etc.).
https://i0.wp.com/yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/823-hurricane-damage-potential.png
Then there’s the likes of Tropical Storm Alison hitting Houston where wind speed is less of an issue than a storm just pumping lots water out of the sea and dumping it on land.