Whew, glad that’s settled.
When Kevin Trenberth talks, scientists listen.
This interview is from a Singapore TV broadcast.
Ever wonder how economists sometimes come up with climate damage estimates that seem..overly optimistic?
Continue reading “Climate Economic Impact Underestimated”Financial institutions often did not understand the models they were using to predict the economic cost of climate change and were underestimating the risks of temperature rises, research led by a professional body of actuaries shows.
Many of the results emerging from the models were “implausible,” with a serious “disconnect” between climate scientists, economists, the people building the models and the financial institutions using them, a report by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter finds.
Companies are increasingly required to report on the climate-related risks they face, using mathematical models to estimate how resilient their assets and businesses might be at different levels of warming. The International Sustainability Standards Board last week launched long-awaited guidance for companies to inform investors about sustainability-related risks, including the climate scenarios chosen in their calculations.
Countries including the UK and Japan have said they plan to integrate these standards into their reporting rules. Companies will also have to report the full scope of their emissions, including those from their supply chains, from the second year they begin to report under the guidelines due to come into effect in 2024. That was a particular “challenge”, since companies would need to collect the data from all their suppliers, said George Richards, head of ESG reporting and assurance at KPMG.
In California, lawmakers are expected to vote in coming months on a bill that would require big companies doing business in the state to report the full scope of their emissions. Some models were likely to have “limited use as they do not adequately communicate the level of risk we are likely to face if we fail to decarbonise quickly enough,” the paper released on Tuesday said. It also found that significant factors were sometimes missing from models.
Somehow this came across my feed, Senate Testimony before the Senate Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Hazardous Wastes and Toxic Substances, chaired by Minnesota Republican David Durenberger, and held on December 10, 1985.
Hard to remember that there was a sane Republican Party at one time.
Anyway, among the Witnesses was was Carl Sagan, and I’ll post that at the bottom of this.
What’s interesting here that I had not seen before is the testimony of Syukuro Manabe, one of the true pioneers of atmospheric modeling, who won a Nobel for his contributions to that science.
While it is frustrating for those of us deeply involved in these matters to hear voices from 40 years ago sounding such a clear and urgent warning, it is important that new generations be continually reminded of the long-term nature of the climate denial enterprise, and, as is so clear from watching the tenor and tone of the hearing in total, how toxic the war on science and fact has been on the world’s greatest deliberative bodies.
Underlining that, at the very beginning of this hearing, Republican Durenberger offered time to his newly elected Democratic colleague, Al Gore, who had already established a lengthy record of statements, concern, and legislative hearings on this issue. The contrast with today’s accepted behavior is sobering.
See Mr Gore’s remarks below.
David Ferdinand Durenberger (August 19, 1934 – January 31, 2023) was an American politician and attorney. Durenberger represented Minnesota in the United States Senate as a Republican from 1978 to 1995. He left the Republican Party in 2005 and became a critic of it, endorsing Democratic presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in 2016 and 2020, respectively.[1][2]
Syukuro “Suki” Manabe (真鍋 淑郎, Manabe Shukurō, born 21 September 1931)is a Japanese-American meteorologist and climatologist who pioneered the use of computers to simulate global climate change and natural climate variations. He was awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics jointly with Klaus Hasselmann and Giorgio Parisi, for his contributions to the physical modeling of earth’s climate, quantifying its variability, and predictions of climate change.
Below,, from Zeke Hausfather, a comparison of the various computer model projections of climate warming, including Manabe’s, dating from the 1970s, with actual observations in the bold black line.
Clear evidence of the overwhelming, uncanny accuracy of climate models and the deep understanding scientists have had for half a century.
Below, Senator Gore’s testimony.
Continue reading “Climate Models from 1985: Syukyo Manabe in Senate Testimony”Brutal heat is catching some Americans unaware.
Lessons the Heartland is learning this summer.
Climate change is not just something to read about on Google news.
July 4, 2023
Heavy rainfall caused flooding across the Chicago metro area Sunday. Cars were submerged and basements were flooded. Officials are using all means necessary to alleviate the waters, including reversing the flow of the Chicago River and asking residents to limit water usage to allow more room in the wastewater system.
Associated Press:
Heavy rains that flooded Chicago neighborhoods, rendered freeways impassable and wreaked havoc on NASCAR street races downtown Sunday are serving as stark reminders of urban centers’ vulnerability during extreme weather events.–
With projections calling for more frequent and powerful storms as climate change continues, cities like Chicago will have to look for new ways to mitigate flooding, said Max Berkelhammer, an associate professor in earth and environmental sciences at the University of Illinois-Chicago.
“That’s really where the challenges are,” Berkelhammer said. “You can build a lot of infrastructure but in a city like Chicago, in a storm like yesterday, you have to find a place for (the run-off) to go.”
Sunday’s flooding was caused by a storm system that stalled over the northeastern corner of Illinois. Instead of moving east over Lake Michigan, the storm pinwheeled around Chicago, dumping as much as 9 inches (23 centimeters) of rain in some areas over the course of Sunday afternoon.
Ed Staudacher, assistant director of maintenance and operations for the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago, said so much run-off flowed into the city’s sewer system that it filled one of the city’s three reservoirs with almost 5 billion gallons of water.
The Chicago River rose six feet (2 meters) during the storm, forcing workers to close a series of locks and reverse the river’s flow from west to east into Lake Michigan to prevent more flooding, he said. The mayor issued a statement asking people to refrain from taking showers and washing dishes to prevent even more run-off from filling the sewers.
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Meanwhile, in one Northwest Chicago Suburb, a long term drought has caused a breakdown in the local water system.
Village of Hawthorne Woods, Illinois:
July 2, 2023
The Village of Hawthorn Woods is in receipt of the following updated message regarding Aqua Illinois water system. This is for Aqua Illinois water customers only.
“Due to the severe drought facing our region, Aqua Illinois is addressing low pressure and water outages in the Hawthorn Woods, Kildeer and the Lake County Public Works systems. As a result we have issued a precautionary boil water advisory, asking all customers to use bottled water or to boil all water for consumption.
Continue reading “In Chicago, Climate Whiplash Brings Flooded Basements, Sewage Overflow, and Water Shortage”
I may have to learn how to spell “Zaporizhzhia” – this problem is not going away.
Following the destruction, by Russia, of a massive Ukrainian dam, threats to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear plant have taken on new credibility, particularly following warnings by Ukrainian intelligence of ominous movements by Russian military and nuclear personnel.
Russians appear to have a different idea of nuclear safety practices, which includes regular beatings of critical safety workers.
Continue reading “World Watching Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant for Signs of Sabotage”Never before has one of the world’s largest nuclear facilities fallen into the bull’s-eye of a large-scale war. Already, parts of two reactors have been hit by artillery and by a large-caliber bullet, though most engineers believe the plant is strong enough to withstand such attacks.
The Ukrainian engineers keeping the plant from melting down are reaching their own breaking point. They have been working for months at gunpoint, according to interviews with current and former employees. And Russian soldiers have dragged scientists and technicians off to a place called “the pit” where they were interrogated and beaten, a former director said.
Now the Ukrainian army is on the march, trying to prove to itself and the world that it can reclaim territory that the much bigger Russian Army has seized. As the long-awaited counteroffensive begins to show small gains, Ukrainian officials say Russian troops at the plant are increasingly desperate.
