Jeff Berardelli is Chief Meteorologist at WFLA in Tampa.
Think July was hot in the desert SW? Aug says hold my beer. A monster heat dome likely by next weekend – the most intense yet this summer. Magenta indicates where all-time record heights are forecast. This on top of PHX so far beating its hottest month on record by almost 4F!!
So far in July PHX avg temp is 102.9 Old record 98.9 in 2020. To beat your hottest month’s temp by ~4 degrees is remarkable. Enter August… This next heat dome is forecast to be around 4 sigma. These heat “ridges” measure the column heat by how high the 500mb pressure sfc is.
Since hot air expands, the hotter the column is, the higher it pushes the height in which you would have to ascend to reach a pressure of 500 millibars. Now, this is just a forecast. It may not verify. But the models have had significant support for it. So it seems legit.
Since 1970, average summer temperatures have increase by 3.8F. The hottest major city in America continues to get hotter due to greenhouse warming and urban heat island effect.
This is not a strong El Nino, yet. The BOM Australia El Niño tracker is at alert stage, an El Nino is coming. I dread a strong 1997 type El Niño.
I wouldn’t mind some of that El Niño rain south and central Texas got in 1998.
Am wondering if Oz has a slightly different definition (unlikely) of El Nino than North America? The Indian Ocean has way more influence here than there.
Or maybe the northern hemisphere weather persons do not consider that is only a 99% El Nino is not worth mentioning. Not important, Hot is Hot.
I think the definitions are a little different
BOM Australia http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
NASA https://www.weather.gov/mhx/ensowhat#:~:text=The%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%2DSouthern%20Oscillation,and%20eastern%20tropical%20Pacific%20Ocean.
NASA pays more attention to the temperature anomalies BOM to the wind patterns. In the End it is a bit of tom-ah-to, tom-ay-to. You will get a little argument over the exact starting time and just how strong but they will more or less agree.
“Something weird is going on”:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/29/something-weird-is-going-on-search-for-answers-as-antarctic-sea-ice-stays-at-historic-lows