Second year of drought across US grain belt.
Water levels on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers are falling for a second straight year, raising the prospect of shipping problems along the all-important US freight routes.
In Cairo, Illinois, where the Ohio joins the Mississippi, water levels have dropped more than 6 feet (1.8 meters) in the last week and are forecast to fall more than 4 feet further by the end of July, pushing the Ohio River into its so-called low stage — when barges can run aground and shipping lanes are forced to narrow. In St. Louis to the north, the Mississippi could fall another 3 feet; in Memphis, it’s forecast to decline by twice as much, putting it in its low stage, too.
Widespread drought across the Midwest and lower than normal rains in parts of the eastern US are behind the falling river levels, which last year also plummeted to concerningly low depths. The Mississippi and Ohio rivers and their tributaries are major US freight arteries for moving coal, oil, natural gas, chemicals and commodities.
“We’re starting off this year low and pretty dry,” said David Welch, a hydrologist with the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. “We’re not seeing a lot of relief in sight.” Currently about 64% of the Midwest is in drought, the most in more than a decade.
The Mississippi River has returned to low-water levels brought on by the prolonged stretch of dry weather across the Midwest this summer.
The Mississippi River saw historically low water conditions in the fall of 2022, followed by high water conditions due to significant snowfall in the upper Midwest in late winter and spring.
“Even in the midst of the high water conditions a couple months ago, my concern was that we could quickly return to low water levels on the Mississippi River given how much of the region’s ground was dry and most reservoirs were still low. The worry was that any prolonged period of dry weather could result in the pendulum swinging back to low water conditions. This unfortunately has occurred,” according to Mike Steenhoek, Executive Director of the Soy Transportation Coalition.
“It serves as a reminder that drought not only inhibits the ability to grow a crop, but it also inhibits the ability to transport that crop,” says Steenhoek.
Recent low river gauge readings in St. Louis and Memphis show how barge transportation could be challenging when the export season picks up in late summer and early fall. Low levels may again force companies to reduce tow sizes and freight amounts.