Month: April 2023

Does not specifically mandate carbon capture, but would force limits on carbon emissions, which, barring some technological breakthrough, would probably force most fossil plants to close – if the regs indeed go into force, and survive future administrations.

New York Times:

President Biden’s administration is poised to announce limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants that could compel them to capture the pollution from their smokestacks, technology now used by fewer than 20 of the nation’s 3,400 coal and gas-fired plants, according to three people who were briefed on the rule.

If implemented, the proposed regulation would be the first time the federal government has restricted carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants, which generate about 25 percent of the planet-warming pollution produced by the United States. It would also apply to future plants.

Almost all coal and gas-fired power plants would have to cut or capture nearly all of their carbon dioxide emissions by 2040, according to the people familiar with the regulation, who asked not to be identified because the rule has not been made public.

The proposed rule is sure to face opposition from the fossil fuel industry, power plant operators and their allies in Congress. It is likely to draw an immediate legal challenge from a group of Republican attorneys general that has already sued the Biden administration to stop other climate policies. A future administration could also weaken the regulation.

The regulation, proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency, is being reviewed by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, and could still be adjusted.

Maria Michalos, an E.P.A. spokeswoman, said the agency is “moving urgently to advance standards that protect people and the planet, building on the momentum from President Biden’s Investing in America economic agenda, including proposals to address carbon emissions from new and existing power plants.”

It would not mandate the use of carbon capture equipment, a nascent and expensive technology; rather, it would set caps on pollution rates that plant operators would have to meet. They could do that by using a different technology or, in the case of gas plants, switching to a fuel source like green hydrogen, which does not emit carbon, according to the people familiar with the matter. But the regulation could lead to the broader adoption of carbon capture technology, the people said.

Robert Rohde PhD on Twitter:

OISST daily average ocean temperatures presented as anomalies from the 1982-2011 mean. Currently the highest anomaly value on record, and sharply above every other year for this date.

Above average temperature nearly everywhere. Major heatwave in the Northern Pacific and near South America. The latter is likely a developing El Niño, though not official till it spreads westward.

Below, the way Kevin Trenberth explained it to me just before the 2016 El Nino took off and set the current global temp record.

Continue reading “Oceans Hinting at Strong El Nino, Hot Year Coming”

I’ve been beating the drum about Eavor, a geothermal company with a technology that does not require a volcanic site, as we have traditionally seen in places like Iceland, California, and Italy.
The Eavor process is technically elegant, takes advantage of high tech drilling techniques advanced by the oil and gas industry in the last decade, and can drill deep enough to access the heat that is available literally anywhere on the planet. Best news of all, they have now proven their process and have over 200 projects in the pipeline.
Serious dark horse energy play set to explode in the next 5 years.

BBC:

If you could shape an ice cube out of all the ice losses from Greenland and Antarctica over the past three decades, it would stand 20km high.

An international group of scientists who work with satellite data say the acceleration in the melting of Earth’s ice sheets is now unmistakable.

They calculate the planet’s frozen poles lost 7,560 billion tonnes in mass between 1992 and 2022. 

Seven of the worst melting years have occurred in the past decade.

Mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica is now responsible for a quarter of all sea-level rise.

This contribution is five times what it was 30 years ago.

The latest assessment comes from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise, or Imbie.

This project, which is supported by the US and European space agencies, issues regular reviews of the state of the planet’s ice sheets.

UPI:

“All this has profound implications for coastal communities around the world and their risk of being exposed to flooding and erosion,” the study’s leader, Dr. Ines Otosaka from Britain’s Center for Polar Observation and Modelling, told the BBC.

Researchers found large variability in the rate of melting both between and within the two polar ice caps, but that it is increasing and most of the increase occurred in the latter seven years of the study.

Melting from Greenland contributed about a half inch, or 66%, to the sea level rise from the ice caps while Antarctica’s was much smaller at 0.3 inches, or about 33%.

Whilst people try to flee the political crisis in Sudan – let’s not forget the climate crisis is also driving that country into chaos. People are fleeing in temperatures of around 43C or 109f. pic.twitter.com/nOV4mtPeiq

— Peter Dynes (@PGDynes) April 24, 2023

Washington Post:

Chaos, lawlessness and fear grip much of Sudan. It’s been a week since tensions between the country’s two most prominent generals exploded into full-blown battles that have sprawled across the country of some 46 million people, turning the teeming capital, Khartoum, into a ghost town and triggering a wave of refugees fleeing for safety. Temporary cease-fires, including one over the Eid holiday, failed to stem the conflict, which at its root is a contest for power between Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, commander of the Sudanese armed forces and the de facto head of state, and Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, universally referred to Hemedti, who heads the influential paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

In the shadow of their clashes, the Sudanese state is coming apart at its seams. Lacking power, water and vital supplies, or hit by heavy weapons, many hospitals have been forced to shut down. Armed groups of varying affiliation have looted houses and businesses, compelling civilians who have not found a way to escape to weigh the grim choice between hunger and deprivation indoors and the security risks outside. “Anything we hear in the news is a lie,” a Khartoum-based science teacher told my colleagues. “The fire is getting stronger. We can’t stay here. If you do not die from the bombs, you will die of hunger. There is nothing in the markets to eat.”

“A Climate driven military posture.”

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:

Biologist Eric Regehr and his colleagues at the US Fish and Wildlife Service began studying polar bears from the American side of the Chukchi Sea, which stretches from Alaska to Russia, in 2008. But as the region warmed, and the increasingly thin spring sea ice off the Alaskan Coast made helicopter landings unsafe, he knew he would need to find another base from which to survey the health and size of the population.

Russia’s remote Wrangel Island made an ideal alternative: A large proportion of Chukchi Sea polar bears take refuge here during the summer, and the Russian Federation had, in 2000, signed an agreement with the United States to protect this population. Collaborating in the field, Russian and American scientists were eventually able to confirm, in 2016, that the population of 3,000 animals appeared to be faring well, despite the rapidly receding sea ice and Indigenous subsistence hunting.

After a two-year hiatus because of Covid-19, Regehr, now with the University of Washington, was eager to return to his research on Wrangel. But when Russia invaded Ukraine last February, his plans abruptly changed. So did those of virtually every government, university, institute, and nonprofit scientist working with Russian colleagues. Suddenly, nearly every international collaborative effort with Russia in the Arctic—from polar bear and whale studies to research on commercial fishing, permafrost thaw, sea-ice retreat, peatland ecology, and wildfires—was on hold.

“So much of what we need to know about these impacts is being lost,” Regehr says. “It’s hard to see how we are going to be able to resume the science without the government and non-government funding [for] us and the Russians, and without us being there to work with their scientists.”

The cessation of scientific collaboration comes at a precarious moment for the Arctic. Environmental risks associated with sea ice loss, pollution, and shipping are increasing; Russia and other Arctic states are proposing new boundary lines along the continental shelf that would expand their claims over the Arctic Ocean seabed; and peatlands have been continuing to burn after a year of record-setting wildfires in northern Russia, adding substantially to the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. (Russia is the world’s fourth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases.) In addition, China is ramping up its economic interests in the Arctic.

“The Arctic has long been a model for optimism and international cooperation,” says Evan T. Bloom, a senior fellow at the Wilson Center, in Washington, D.C., and a former US diplomat engaged for nearly three decades on Arctic governance. “The disruption of cooperation is necessary because of the [Ukraine] crisis, but there can be no progress on pan-Arctic issues without Russian participation.”

Worth a review.

We knew.

And if you missed PBS’ “The Power of Oil” special, see if you can find a re-run, and look for part 2 next week. Powerful and sobering deep dive into climate denial history.

Twenty five years ago, on this #EarthDay, Apr 22 1998, the #HockeyStick reconstruction of temperatures was born (https://t.co/JZq8P0bufm). Here's an interview I did on @CBSEveningNews with @JohnRobertsFox (anchor @DanRather): https://t.co/XVXon55vw3
🧵

— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) April 22, 2023

I interviewed Mike in 2014, below, when 15 years of data, and many international groups, had more than confirmed the finding.

Brave new tech advocates going full speed on (above) geoengineering, (below) clean energy tech.

New York Times:

Decarb bros believe it’s all going to be OK.

They believe that I.P.A.s go best with party chat about smart-grid management and electric vehicle infrastructure. They believe in trading memes on Twitter and in messaging groups, formed around their zeal for technology as the answer to a lower-emissions future.

And the bros, a loose affiliation of mostly young researchers, climate tech workers, policymakers and people following along online, believe in making fun of themselves, at least a little. See: “Decarb bros,” a term they have embraced regardless of gender identity or weight-lifting ability.

What they do not believe in is wallowing.

“We are against doomerism,” said Billy Casagrande, who works at Scale Microgrids, a climate tech start-up. He was referring to a pessimistic view that humanity has passed the point of being able to do anything about climate change.

The consensus among young people seems to be “that we are screwed as it relates to climate,” the self-described decarb bro, who is 25, continued. Mr. Casagrande, one of dozens at a monthly meet-up in Brooklyn’s Williamsburg neighborhood for clean energy enthusiasts, believes there is another way.

“The solutions are here. We just need to deploy them.”

“Deploy” has become a rallying cry for decarb bros. They argue that deploying climate technology solutions — solar panels, wind turbines, heat pumps, electric cars, meat alternatives (the list goes on) — will decarbonize the economy while generating eye-popping financial returns.

“The environmental movement has been traditionally seen as altruistic,” said Kyri Baker, an assistant professor of engineering at the University of Colorado and a self-described decarb bro. “It was about giving away stuff and making sacrifices.”

The decarb bro flips those associations on their heads, rejecting pure doom and putting faith in business innovation and government spending to fight climate change.

The bro label has historically been associated with negative connotations of toxic masculinity and exclusivity, Dr. Baker said. But she thinks the term is undergoing a shift and taking on a gender-inclusive status. The decarb bro is “someone who’s working toward something that we all care about” without adopting the sacrificial tone of traditional environmentalism, she said.

Dr. Baker sees aspects of the decarb bro culture as an antidote to the wonkiness and self-seriousness of parts of the environmental movement. In particular, she cited the Twitter account Bros for Decarbonization, which shares memes that connect bro-approved activities — namely drinking, lifting weights and making money — with decarbonizing the economy.

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Video below of futurist Ray Kurzweil, speaking about a decade ago on potential for solar energy. His message then was, “no worries, solar is growing so fast our energy problems will be solved by 2030”. I’m not sure if we’re still on the same doubling curve – engineers let me know..

Continue reading “DeCarb Bros Gung Ho on Climate Solutions”