The Weekend Wonk: Greta Thunberg Interview

Discussion with Greta Thunberg, half hour.

Preview clip below.

Rod Serling Reminds Us “Never Again”

I did not remember this episode, with young Dennis Hopper, but it’s chilling, and more demonstration if any was needed, of Serling’s genius.

Jennifer Francis on Hurricane Fiona

Hurricane Fiona looking more and more like Superstorm Sandy.

I spoke to good friend and Ocean and Atmosphere expert Jennifer Francis this afternoon, from her home in Massachusetts.

Mathew Gross on Twitter:

The severity of what’s about to occur in Nova Scotia on Friday night cannot be overstated! A hybrid hurricane will result from the violent phasing of a sharp cutoff trough and major hurricane Fiona moving into the same waters well east of New England.

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The Buoys: As Fiona Blows Up, Sail Drone Tracks from Within

Incredible footage.

Yale Climate Connections:

NOAA oceanographer Greg Foltz knew it was going to be a long night last fall when he saw Hurricane Sam‘s trajectory. Glued to the National Hurricane Center data, Foltz, who works in NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, examined the storm’s tracking and intensity and conducted an analysis of the satellite images and data.

He needed to estimate the hurricane’s trajectory over the next 12-24 hours so he could position his instruments. He wasn’t trying to pull his costly equipment away from the hurricane’s path, though. In fact, he was doing the opposite. He wanted to position an uncrewed surface vehicle (USV) called a Saildrone right in the path of the storm. A direct hit by the ferocious Category 4 storm was just what he was looking for.

As he closely monitored the storm, Foltz sent messages to Saildrone’s “mission control” when he wanted to change the vehicle’s path. For example, if he thought the storm would veer a little further to the west, he would send the team a new waypoint to adjust it.

“It was a constant back and forth adjusting the location that we wanted the Saildrone to be in to go through the strongest part of the storm,” Foltz says. “I was directing in real time where to take the Saildrone to get it in the best spot to go through the strongest part of the hurricane, and that was exciting. I didn’t really sleep at all the night before as I was trying to get it into the right position.”

Equipped with a “hurricane wing,” the Saildrone could be remotely controlled, with scientists adjusting the sail from afar in order to steer the craft. The hurricane Saildrones differ from some of the company’s other products, which are used for projects like ocean mapping, ocean data collection, and maritime domain awareness,

“It’s that difference of a smaller, stubbier, hardier wing that we use with the hurricane drones to help improve their endurance and capability to survive during some of the very rough weather they may find themselves in during hurricane season,” says Matt Womble, Director of Ocean Data Programs for Saildrone, Inc.

As Hurricane Sam’s powerful Category 4 winds and monster waves battered the USV, the team waited and watched. Live data and video footage rolled in, allowing them a peek into the storm’s fury. After the weather calmed, they were able to steer it to Bermuda to retrieve it, mostly unscathed.

Expanding Hurricane Saildrone project this hurricane season

After last year’s successful mission, NOAA and Saildrone are expanding the project this year by adding two additional Saildrones, for a total of seven. Hurricane season runs from June to November, and this year two drones are positioned in the Gulf of Mexico and five others are in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The researchers deploy them to locations where they think there is a good chance a storm will develop. Last year, the Saildrones collected data about Hurricane Sam, in addition to four tropical storms, as well as a few weaker tropical depressions and storms.

Continue reading “The Buoys: As Fiona Blows Up, Sail Drone Tracks from Within”

Fiona has Echoes of Sandy

Meteo Twitter check if I’m wrong – But Fiona has echoes of Sandy

Above, shortly after Hurricane Sandy blew up along the US Northeast coast, I asked Dr Kerry Emanuel of MIT to give me a “play by play” analysis of the storm’s development.

The notices I’m seeing from Meteorology twitter about Hurricane Fiona’s path toward Canada feel like a similar situation. Tell me if I’m wrong.

NASA: Arctic Sea Ice Reaches Annual Minimum

National Center for Snow and Ice Research:

On September 18, Arctic sea ice likely reached its annual minimum extent of 4.67 million square kilometers (1.80 million square miles). The 2022 minimum is tied for tenth lowest in the nearly 44-year satellite record, with 2018 and 2017. The last 16 years, from 2007 to 2022, are the lowest 16 sea ice extents in the satellite record.

In the Antarctic, sea ice extent has hit record lows through most of the growth season. Starting in early August, sea ice began expanding rapidly, exemplifying the strong degree of variability in Southern Hemisphere sea ice. As such it is too early to assume that the maximum has been reached as storms may still expand or compact the extended ice edge. The maximum for Antarctic sea ice typically occurs in late September or early October.

Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.

Oxford: Shift to Clean Energy Could Save Trillions

Yale e360:

The world would save at least $12 trillion by phasing out fossil fuels and shifting to renewable energy by 2050, according to a new analysis from the University of Oxford. 

“Renewable costs have been trending down for decades. They are already cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations and, our research shows, they will become cheaper than fossil fuels across almost all applications in the years to come,” Doyne Farmer, an economist at Oxford and co-author of the study, said in a statement. “And, if we accelerate the transition, they will become cheaper faster. Completely replacing fossil fuels with clean energy by 2050 will save us trillions.”

For the study, researchers compared the predictions of leading energy models with data on the actual cost of solar, wind, and battery storage over the last several decades. They found that models have consistently overestimated the future cost of clean energy, with solar costs falling twice as fast as even the most optimistic projections. The swift drop for renewable energy “is different from anything observed in any other energy technologies in the past,” the authors write.

Extrapolating from recent trends, the new study takes a more optimistic view of future clean energy costs. Researchers modeled a scenario in which solar, wind, batteries, electric vehicles, and other green technologies displace fossil fuels by mid-century, with the world using 55 percent more energy than it does today. In that scenario, the shift to increasingly cheap renewable technologies would save upwards of $12 trillion, far more than if countries continue burning fossil fuels past 2050. The findings were published in the journal Joule.

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“A Wake Up Call” – Angelina Jolie on Pakistan’s Flooding

Angelina Jolie has become known for humanitarian work with struggling communities in the developing world, and she’s not a stranger to difficult situations.
I think her remarks here are worth a listen, so have included two links that are slightly different cuts.
Working on a piece about this crisis now, and the more I look, the more I suspect that this disaster and it’s ripple effects will be with us for a very, very long time.