I’m hoping the growing used EV market will get people in.
After a series of unfortunate events have been resolved, my 2015 Leaf will be collected today for a car auctioneer that handles donated cars (proceeds to the charity I select). By today’s standards the battery is low capacity (~85 miles on a charge), but that’s more than enough for city driving, especially since it’s so efficient with stoplights, stop signs and stop-and-go traffic.
With the recent drop in gasoline prices, maybe that month’s delay in the donation (some guy ran into the car in broad daylight while it was parked on the street) will lower the amount the charity gets at auction. Ah, well….
In San Jose, Calif. — the heart of Silicon Valley — the median income is about $84,000, and an “affordable” new car purchase price is about $33,000 — close to, but still below, the average new car price.
In Hartford, Conn., where the median income is about $29,000, an affordable purchase price is about $8,000 — about a quarter of the average new-car price.
Between the improvement in manufacturing and the expansion of mainstream dealers into “certified used cars”, the quality of used cars has gone up in recent decades. There are a lot of people who think that buying a new car is a bad investment and a sucker’s game (and like to point out how much the sale value drops the moment you drive it off of the lot).
Sure, it sounds good on paper, but it will take YEARS for the U.S. to ramp EV battery production up to the necessary levels, therefore years for any of these tax credits to work. Meanwhile, are we sure the tax credits can’t be removed if a Republican wins in 2024?
I see it as a trick by Manchin. He talked about how he hated the EV tax credit. He must have figured out a way to sabotage it and Schumer was dumb enough to accept it – because it ‘sounds’ good.
Can you imagine requiring ICE vehicles in the US to only run on domestic fuel?
Will forcing batteries being made in the U.S. make EVs cheaper?
Forcing batteries to be made in the US is a way to ensure that the US consumers will not be held hostage by a supply dominated by the Chinese. This is a classic national politics rather than consumer issue.
In a sense, though, Li+ batteries are fungible, in that “virtuous” ones will be shunted to those where the consumer can get a refund/subsidy, and the Chinese-sourced portion can still go to unsubsidized buses and trucks and grid batteries. Businesses would try to leverage as much of that subsidy as possible.
“Can you imagine requiring ICE vehicles in the US to only run on domestic fuel?”
No, because U.S. oil demand is almost 2x higher than U.S. oil production.
I won’t argue the middle paragraph – of course you’re right. But, it’s far from likely to make EVs cheaper to U.S. consumers. China dominates the battery trade for many reasons, but one of them is that they also dominate the mining for them. The U.S. can’t just snap its fingers and voila 100% EV battery production. Many very expensive steps will have to first be taken to even make it possible.
Last paragraph – again, years for the throughputs of that to work effectively. Those years effectively neuter the EV tax credit in the bill.
‘“The $7,500 credit might exist on paper,” Bozzella said in a statement, “but no vehicles will qualify for this purchase over the next few years.”’
‘The industry says the North American battery supply chain is too small right now to meet the battery component requirements.’
‘Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat and a leading ally of Detroit automakers, complained that Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a critical Democratic vote, had opposed any tax credits for EV purchases.
“I went round-and-round with Senator Manchin, who frankly didn’t support any credit of any kind, so this is a compromise,” Stabenow told reporters Monday. “We’ll work through it and make this as good as we can for our automakers.”’
I tend to resent the victory laps being taken right now, mostly by moderates, that some amazing thing has just happened. The “largest climate legislation ever” is also virtually the first U.S. climate legislation ever. 0.05% > 0.00%.
In actual context, the IRA solves climate change like Obama’s Affordable Care Act solved U.S. healthcare. We ‘should’ be more deeply ashamed that this is the best we can do rather than celebratory and throwing out words like “superhero” to describe Biden – because like the ACA was mostly written by health insurance lobbyists, the IRA was heavily influenced by a coal baron.
The EV tax credit was supposed to be one of the best things about this bill – and it’s coming out that it was poison-pilled by Manchin.
Manchin was pressed to change it, and he refused. So, the Democrats accepted the “good” over the “perfect” (while in reality, they accepted “the barely working” over the “good”).
Am I saying the bill should be canceled because of it? No. It is the best we can do about climate change in the U.S. at this point in time. But, let’s also not kid ourselves and throw a party about it.
Sure hear you on that. Am constantly conflicted whether to call out trumpeted ‘good news’ or just let it pass. Generally only point out scams and leave the hope.
The EV tax credit in the bill wouldn’t apply to any current EVs:
https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/8/23296678/ev-tax-credit-qualify-battery-supply-chain-china
And just as a reminder, NYT yesterday in EVs:
The New York Times: Electric Cars Are Too Costly for Many, Even With Aid in Climate Bill.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/08/business/energy-environment/electric-vehicles-climate-bill.html
I’m hoping the growing used EV market will get people in.
After a series of unfortunate events have been resolved, my 2015 Leaf will be collected today for a car auctioneer that handles donated cars (proceeds to the charity I select). By today’s standards the battery is low capacity (~85 miles on a charge), but that’s more than enough for city driving, especially since it’s so efficient with stoplights, stop signs and stop-and-go traffic.
https://www.motor1.com/news/594263/used-hybrid-ev-prices-jump-gas/
With the recent drop in gasoline prices, maybe that month’s delay in the donation (some guy ran into the car in broad daylight while it was parked on the street) will lower the amount the charity gets at auction. Ah, well….
New Cars Are Too Expensive for the Typical Family, Study Finds
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/02/your-money/new-cars-are-too-expensive-for-the-typical-family-study-finds.html
Study: http://www.bankrate.com/finance/auto/where-a-new-car-is-most-and-least-affordable.aspx
In San Jose, Calif. — the heart of Silicon Valley — the median income is about $84,000, and an “affordable” new car purchase price is about $33,000 — close to, but still below, the average new car price.
In Hartford, Conn., where the median income is about $29,000, an affordable purchase price is about $8,000 — about a quarter of the average new-car price.
Between the improvement in manufacturing and the expansion of mainstream dealers into “certified used cars”, the quality of used cars has gone up in recent decades. There are a lot of people who think that buying a new car is a bad investment and a sucker’s game (and like to point out how much the sale value drops the moment you drive it off of the lot).
I can live with that sort of incentive for EV makers.
Sure, it sounds good on paper, but it will take YEARS for the U.S. to ramp EV battery production up to the necessary levels, therefore years for any of these tax credits to work. Meanwhile, are we sure the tax credits can’t be removed if a Republican wins in 2024?
I see it as a trick by Manchin. He talked about how he hated the EV tax credit. He must have figured out a way to sabotage it and Schumer was dumb enough to accept it – because it ‘sounds’ good.
The main point of getting EVs to take over the market is to make them affordable – and what we’re getting is stuff like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8CRBmwmeN0
Where is the EV Model T?
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-price-increases-model-3-50k/
Will forcing batteries being made in the U.S. make EVs cheaper?
Can you imagine requiring ICE vehicles in the US to only run on domestic fuel?
Forcing batteries to be made in the US is a way to ensure that the US consumers will not be held hostage by a supply dominated by the Chinese. This is a classic national politics rather than consumer issue.
In a sense, though, Li+ batteries are fungible, in that “virtuous” ones will be shunted to those where the consumer can get a refund/subsidy, and the Chinese-sourced portion can still go to unsubsidized buses and trucks and grid batteries. Businesses would try to leverage as much of that subsidy as possible.
“Can you imagine requiring ICE vehicles in the US to only run on domestic fuel?”
No, because U.S. oil demand is almost 2x higher than U.S. oil production.
I won’t argue the middle paragraph – of course you’re right. But, it’s far from likely to make EVs cheaper to U.S. consumers. China dominates the battery trade for many reasons, but one of them is that they also dominate the mining for them. The U.S. can’t just snap its fingers and voila 100% EV battery production. Many very expensive steps will have to first be taken to even make it possible.
Last paragraph – again, years for the throughputs of that to work effectively. Those years effectively neuter the EV tax credit in the bill.
More info on the crippled EV tax credit:
https://apnews.com/article/electric-vehicles-tax-credit-cfd3d9322230446f65d629b05c2ae551
‘“The $7,500 credit might exist on paper,” Bozzella said in a statement, “but no vehicles will qualify for this purchase over the next few years.”’
‘The industry says the North American battery supply chain is too small right now to meet the battery component requirements.’
‘Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat and a leading ally of Detroit automakers, complained that Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a critical Democratic vote, had opposed any tax credits for EV purchases.
“I went round-and-round with Senator Manchin, who frankly didn’t support any credit of any kind, so this is a compromise,” Stabenow told reporters Monday. “We’ll work through it and make this as good as we can for our automakers.”’
Positive steps that are sub perfect are still positive.
Of course. A net positive is still a positive.
I tend to resent the victory laps being taken right now, mostly by moderates, that some amazing thing has just happened. The “largest climate legislation ever” is also virtually the first U.S. climate legislation ever. 0.05% > 0.00%.
Here’s Paul Krugman a few days ago:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/08/opinion/climate-inflation-bill.html
Krugman – Democrats just saved civilization
In actual context, the IRA solves climate change like Obama’s Affordable Care Act solved U.S. healthcare. We ‘should’ be more deeply ashamed that this is the best we can do rather than celebratory and throwing out words like “superhero” to describe Biden – because like the ACA was mostly written by health insurance lobbyists, the IRA was heavily influenced by a coal baron.
The EV tax credit was supposed to be one of the best things about this bill – and it’s coming out that it was poison-pilled by Manchin.
There was a news report about it a week ago that slipped under everyone’s radar:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/automakers-press-senator-manchin-for-changes-to-ev-tax-credit-proposal.html
Manchin was pressed to change it, and he refused. So, the Democrats accepted the “good” over the “perfect” (while in reality, they accepted “the barely working” over the “good”).
Am I saying the bill should be canceled because of it? No. It is the best we can do about climate change in the U.S. at this point in time. But, let’s also not kid ourselves and throw a party about it.
Sure hear you on that. Am constantly conflicted whether to call out trumpeted ‘good news’ or just let it pass. Generally only point out scams and leave the hope.