Month: April 2022

Conservative islanders on Tangier Island in Chesapeake Bay, don’t believe in Sea level rise. They say what’s eating up their island is “erosion”.
Yeah, that’s what sea level rise does.

WMTV Portland, Maine:

Cape Air, which provides commuter service to Portland, Augusta and Rockland, has signed a letter of intent to purchase 75 fully-electric airplanes from Eviation Aircraft.

The Eviation Alice can carry nine passengers and two crew. It has a range of about 500 miles on a charge with a top cruising speed of nearly 300 miles per hour.

“Together with Eviation, we are creating the next generation of air travel, in which electric flight will be the industry standard,” said Cape Air board chairman Dan Wolf.

“Cape Air remains committed to sustainability, growth and innovation,” said Cape Air president and CEO Linda Markham. “Our communities will benefit from emission-free travel.”

I was not clear when the planes would be in service.

Market Info:

BAE Systems will design, test, and supply energy management components for electric aircraft in the megawatt power class.

BAE Systems has been selected by GE Aviation to provide energy management solutions for the recently announced hybrid electric technology demonstrator program. As part of the NASA research project, BAE Systems will design, test, and supply energy management components for electric aircraft in the megawatt power class.

NASA’s Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project aims to progress hybrid electric flight technologies for commercial aviation. The project includes ground and flight-test demonstrations to be conducted over the next five years.

“We are harnessing our expertise in energy management systems and flight critical controls to support the development of electric propulsion systems for the future of flight,” said Ehtisham Siddiqui, vice president and general manager of Controls and Avionics Solutions at BAE Systems. “This effort continues our longstanding relationship with GE.”

In addition to energy storage, BAE Systems will provide the high-integrity controls and cables for the demonstrator’s power management system, which will be tested on CT7-9B  turboprop engines. The company will also leverage its investment in aircraft electrification and expertise in flight-critical systems to provide guidance for electric flight certification requirements.

Continue reading “Quiet, Clean: Electric Flight Moving to Reality”

Ukraine War is doing to fossil fuels what a Javelin Missile does to Russian tanks.

Kingsmill Bond in GreenBiz.com:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means that global demand for fossil fuels has very likely peaked — for good. The world’s policymakers have been working toward this tipping point for years. Now, the twin forces of national security and energy economics are driving permanent system change away from fossil fuels quicker than ever.

This framing is directly contrary to the perspective of most fossil fuel industry participants. Their hope is that energy scarcity and high fossil fuel prices will kill the energy transition. On one level this is a basic error of economics: after all, higher prices for anything — including fossil fuels — mean lower demand. But it is also a failure to realize that the world has changed since earlier oil shocks. Today, the alternative energy solutions are large enough to supply demand growth and do so at a lower cost.

The math behind peaking demand for fossil fuels is not complex. If we take BP data for the decade to 2020, global energy demand has grown at 1 percent per year. Solar and wind supply grew at an average rate of 20 percent per year over the decade and made up around 4.4 percent of primary energy supply in 2021. A year of even 15 percent growth would see them make up 0.66 percentage points of the growth in total energy supply.

In other words, under a steady-state environment, solar and wind are meeting about two-thirds of the growth in energy demand. Added output from hydro, nuclear and biomass supply is enough to make up the rest of the demand growth. This leaves very little room for incremental demand for fossil fuels.

The impact of COVID has muddied the waters by introducing a cyclical crash and recovery, but the structural shift is clear. BP’s Accelerated Transition scenario illustrates the story below. Fossil fuel demand reaches a peak in 2019, moves along a plateau for a few years, then falls off a cliff in the second half of the decade.

However, Putin’s war will turn this bumpy plateau into a cliff edge. If we assume for the sake of argument that efficiency increases by 1 percentage point and solar and wind growth increases by 5 percentage points to 20 percent, then the decline in fossil fuel demand would turn into a rout. Fossil fuel demand would fall by 25 percent this decade and then collapse in the 2030s.

As the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, Russia sits on the fault lines of this shift. Its largest customer is Europe. Rising conflict between the two will inevitably mean a long period of uncertainty and stress for fossil fuel markets, a reckoning which will galvanize the energy transition.

Continue reading “Michael Mann on Climate and Conflict”

Has #Ukraine #War ended the #FossilFuel Era? @@MichaelEMann https://t.co/2QUWzIBkvs

— Thom Hartmann (@Thom_Hartmann) April 20, 2022

Above, Michael Mann hints in an interview, at the long time involvement of Russia in the climate denial movement.

Below, three senior retired military officers describe the national security implications of uncontrolled climate change.

Dennis Laich, Larry Wilkerson and Erik Edstrom in Yale Climate Connections:

The US military is about to find itself committed to yet another unwinnable mission costing trillions of dollars.

No, we are not referring to the possibility of American escalation in Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine: We are referring to the grim prospect of the American military’s having to attempt to provide national security in a rapidly warming world.

In the zeitgeist of this moment – Ukraine’s city and dwindling population of Mariupol cut off from proper access to food and water by Russian troops, 40-year high inflation rates, and COVID-19-related crisis fatigue – the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, focusing on mitigation, might receive short shrift.

This would be a mistake.

The climate crisis is here, it is inextricably intertwined with American national security, and it requires that our nation take urgent, sweeping action to protect our military from its worst effects. The most recent IPCC report made it clear that nations are not doing nearly enough to prevent global warming from increasing to dangerous levels within the lifetimes of most people on Earth today.

Climate change’s effects are far larger in both magnitude and breadth – and therefore should be treated as a far larger threat to Americans – than the negative-sum wars of the past two decades. For that, our government was willing to commit 20 years, 8 trillion dollars, more than 7,000 US military lives, and yet climate change, an existential threat, receives a much smaller share of public investment and of public attention. This is not a rational, threat-based allocation of resources … and it is to this nation’s collective detriment.

Continue reading “Is the Ukraine War Ending the Fossil Era?”

Or not.
I truly wish them luck, but there are hurdles.
One that seems particularly daunting is that the idea is to mass produce small reactors in order to gain economies of scale. So the first one is getting $546 million.
At what point do the “economies of scale” kick in? at 2 or 3, 10, or a hundred reactors?
Who finances the production of those first few dozen reactors?
Also, what if you produce a few dozen, then find out that, like the Boeing 737 Max, there’s a critical flaw?
Back to square one?

Reuters:

Britain has backed a $546 million Rolls-Royce funding round to develop the country’s first small modular nuclear reactor, in a drive to reach net zero carbon emissions and promote new technology with export potential.

Hitting its emissions goal by 2050 requires a huge increase in low-carbon power generation such as wind, solar and nuclear, but while large-scale new nuclear projects have struggled for funding, Britain is now banking on smaller versions.

“This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the UK to deploy more low carbon energy than ever before and ensure greater energy independence,” Britain’s Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said on Tuesday.

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) can be made in factories, with parts small enough to be transported on trucks and barges and assembled more quickly and cheaply than large-scale ones.

Each mini plant can power around 1 million homes and Rolls-Royce (RR.L)forecast that the SMR business could create up to 40,000 jobs based on British and export demand.

It said the global export potential was “unprecedented”, fitting with a government plan to increase clean tech jobs as part of its so-called green industrial revolution.

Britain wants to reduce power generated from gas, a desire strengthened by this year’s dramatic price rise, which has resulted in several small energy suppliers going bust.

It is also seeking to replace aging nuclear plants, with all but one of Britain’s existing nuclear fleet, which provide around 20% of the country’s electricity, set to close by 2030.

The SMRs will not be available until the early 2030s and all new nuclear power projects need approval from Britain’s Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) and its Generic Design Assessment, which can take around four years to complete for large plants.

Greenpeace criticised the government’s 210 million pounds ($283 million) investment, which is being made alongside 195 million pounds ($263 million) from Rolls-Royce and two partners, BNF Resources UK and Exelon Generation, over three years.

“The immediate deadline for action is sharp cuts in emissions by 2030, and small reactors will have no role in that,” Greenpeace chief scientist Dr Doug Parr said.

National Grid is a big utility serving the US Northeast. Above, the CEO discusses proposals for big offshore wind, as well as green gas projects for the area. There is an urgent need for economical clean energy options in the area.

New York Times:

Today’s energy crisis has a familiar ring. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy supplies have faltered and prices have skyrocketed. Americans are seeing costly gasoline, and in Europe, natural gas prices are around five times typical levels for this time of year, driving up the price of electricity and even threatening bankruptcies across industries that depend on gas.

After previous global energy crises — 1973, 1979, 1990 and 2008 — tensions abated, prices fell, people forgot and governments turned to other priorities. And global dependence on oil and gas kept rising.

This time could be different. Western nations have aggressively employed sanctions against Russia, and those sanctions are expected to tighten and include Russian oil and gas exports, as Europe and other importers gain confidence that they can replace those supplies. But what really matters for the long term is whether the West can lower its dependence not just on Russian exports, but on fossil fuels altogether.

To do that, companies and investors have to take risks on new, clean technologies, but many won’t if governments don’t give them the signal. What’s new in this crisis is how the European Union, in particular, is using the war in Ukraine to give investors a big green light.

Continue reading “Big Offshore Wind, Green Gas Projected for Northeast”

Worth a review.

We knew.

And if you missed PBS’ “The Power of Oil” special, see if you can find a re-run, and look for part 2 next week. Powerful and sobering deep dive into climate denial history.

Rochester Times Union:

Plug Power will now supply Walmart machinery with green hydrogen power. 

The Latham manufacturer reached a long-term agreement with the multinational retailer to provide it up to 20 tons of liquid green hydrogen per day that will be used to power material handling trucks, such as forklifts, across its U.S. distribution centers

The deal is one of Plug Power’s first green hydrogen supply contracts. A Plug Power spokesperson said it is the “biggest green hydrogen deal to date in North America,” without disclosing how much the company would profit from it in an email to the Times Union.

It will deliver the clean energy source using its fleet of liquid transporters that it gained from acquiring Applied Cryo Technologies.

Plug Power produces green hydrogen through water electrolysis – using electric currents to catalyze chemical reactions – with electricity from zero-carbon sources. 

Walmart first started working with Plug Power in 2012 when it launched a pilot program. The superstore’s green fleet has increased to include 9,500 machines since then and is growing as it continues taking strides to decarbonize its operations.

Associated Press:

Sprawled like a gigantic swimming pool atop a bluff overlooking Lake Michigan is an asphalt-and-clay pond holding enough water to produce electricity for 1.6 million households.

It’s part of the Ludington Pumped Storage Plant, which uses simple technology: Water is piped from a lower reservoir — the lake, in this case — to an upper one, then released downhill through supersized turbines.

Supporters call these systems “the world’s largest batteries” because they hold vast amounts of potential energy for use when needed for the power grid.

The hydropower industry considers pumped storage the best answer to a question hovering over the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy to address climate change: where to get power when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.

“I wish we could build 10 more of these. I love ’em,” Eric Gustad, community affairs manager for Consumers Energy, said during a tour of the Ludington facility.

But the utility based in Jackson, Michigan, has no such plans. Environmental and logistical challenges and potential costs in the billions led Consumers to sell another would-be site near the lake years ago. It’s now upgrading the existing plant with co-owner DTE Energy.

Constructing a new one “doesn’t make financial sense,” Gustad said. “Unless we get some help from the state or federal government, I don’t see it happening any time soon.”

STUCK IN NEUTRAL

The company’s decision illustrates the challenges facing pumped storage in the U.S., where these systems account for about 93% of utility-scale energy in reserve. While analysts foresee soaring demand for power storage, the industry’s growth has lagged.

Continue reading “World’s Largest Batteries are Tried and True Tech”