Month: December 2021

Europe’s Gas Crunch Worsens

Above, cold weather moving into Europe, will exacerbate gas demand.

See my video this month for context.

Reuters:

MOSCOW/FRANKFURT/LONDON, Dec 21 (Reuters) – European gas prices hit a new record high on Tuesday after a pipeline that brings Russian gas to Germany switched to flow east, a move the Kremlin said had no political backdrop, while two big German customerssaid Gazprom was meeting supply obligations.

Westward gas flows through the Yamal-Europe pipeline, one of the major routes for Russian gas to Europe, had been falling since Saturday and, after stopping early on Tuesday, reversed direction, data from network operator Gascade showed.

It was not immediately clear why flows were down through the pipeline, one of the major routes for Russian gas exports to Europe and which traverses Belarus. Russian gas exporter Gazprom did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

European gas prices have surged this year as demand spiked globally in the post-pandemic recovery. Russia, Europe’s key supplier, has said supplies under long-term deals were met in full, but has not added volumes for the spot market. read more 

Gazprom sends gas to Europe via a number of routes and is booking extra capacity – or volumes which come on top of firm contracts – at auctions for delivery via Ukraine and to Germany via the Yamal route.

Flows at the Mallnow metering point on the German-Polish border on Saturday fell to an hourly volume of around 1,200,000 kilowatt hours (kWh/h), from an average of 10,000,000 kWh/h on Friday and around 12,000,000 kWh/h on Thursday.

Russian gas supplies to Europe are closely tied with levels of gas in Gazprom’s storage at home. The company this week started to lift gas from its underground facilities in central Russia, with peak consumption expected in a month.

Continue reading “Europe’s Gas Crunch Worsens”

Has Elon Musk Built a New Kind of Nuclear Reactor?

You tell me. First I’ve heard of it – the description here is a portable, one megawatt device, helium cooled, purportedly safe, to be operational maybe 2028, in other words, kind of irrelevant to the current need for rapid decarbonization, but if it works, perhaps useful for some applications and remote areas. (like Mars?)

New Video: The Product – LNG and Energy’s Perfect Storm

This months Yale Climate Connections video is the story of a perfect storm of circumstances, that has shone a stark light on a new global fact of life.
Natural gas has become a central commodity in international commerce, central for energy generation and heating around the world. The United State may very well become the world’s largest exporter of gas, in the form of LNG – Liquified Natural Gas, compressed, cooled to minus 162° C, and loaded onto massive tanker ships.

5 years ago, Americans were sitting on practically limitless natural gas, with just a few pipelines to Mexico and a trickle of exports. Prices had been historically low and stable for most of a decade.
Now that’s changed. American gas is now shipping thru massive new LNG terminals to a global market, and American consumers are now competing with Europeans and Asians, who are used to paying a LOT more for the fuel

Fast forward to 2021. Covid shutdowns begins to lift, and economies took off much faster than anyone anticipated, shortages erupted in China first, then Europe. France’s nuclear plants, hobbled by lack of maintenance during Covid, have been slow to respond. A key transmission facility between France and the UK caught fire.

In Spain, North African gas shipments were held up due to political squabbles. In the US, Hurricane Ida hobbled oil and gas production in the Gulf. Drillers, taking advantage of high prices to finally make good on promises to investors frustrated by a decade of losses, were paying dividends instead of ramping up drilling. Droughts in South America strangled hydro supplies, bumping up demand for gas there.

In Northern Europe, a Black Swan weather event, unseen in the reliable historical record, kept wind output low in Northern Europe, further crimping energy supplies. Planners failed to anticipate increased demand and did not have adequate storage on hand.

Finally, Russia, a major supplier of gas to Europe, played their card and slow walked contracted gas deliveries thru Ukrainian pipes.
A lot depends on what kind of winter Europe has, and things don’t look good right now.

Continue reading “New Video: The Product – LNG and Energy’s Perfect Storm”

The Problem: “Nobody is Afraid of This White House”

Kurt Bardella in USAToday:

Democrats have a problem with fear and by that I mean, absolutely no one is afraid of them.

Last week began with the House of Representatives voting to hold former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows in contempt of Congress. You would think that the threat of criminal prosecution would provoke cooperation from someone like Meadows, who once championed strong congressional oversight, instead, he responded by going on Fox News.

A few days after the Meadows vote, the House Committee on Oversight and Reform released a stunning report revealing the extraordinary lengths to which the Trump administration went to undermine the initial response to COVID-19. Republicans ignored the report and continued their crusade against common-sense health mandates.

By the end of the week, on his Comedy Central show, Charlamagne tha God audaciously asked Vice President Kamala Harris, “who’s the real president in this country, is it Joe Manchin or Joe Biden?”

On Sunday, Manchin may have effectively jettisoned Democrats’ top legislative priority, appearing on the bastion of facts and truth Fox News, to deliver the bombshell that he would not support moving ahead with the Build Back Better initiative. 

From Meadows to Manchin, absolutely nobody is afraid of this White House or of Democrats in general. Republicans on the other hand have taken the politics of fear and turned them into a Jedi-level art-form. Fear is their weapon of choice and they love nothing more than using it to bludgeon Democrats over and over and over again.

Axios’ Mike Allen reported that congressional Republicans led by Rep. Kevin McCarthy have already “begun mapping aggressive probes of the Biden administration if they win back the majority – including inquiries into the origins of COVID, a leak of IRS data about billionaires and accusations the NSA spied on Tucker Carlson.”

Republicans are poised for an investigative tsunami designed to paralyze the Biden administration and dominate news cycle after news cycle with hearings and outrageous, salacious accusations.

Republicans learned during the Obama years that the media will be their best partner in this effort as long as they put on a show day-in-and-day-out. For four consecutive election cycles, Republicans were able to hold on to their congressional majority by producing zero legislative accomplishments by still controlling the narrative with their oversight onslaught.

Continue reading “The Problem: “Nobody is Afraid of This White House””

AOC on Manchin: “Take the Kid Gloves Off”

Not as incendiary as I might have expected.
“I do not believe that the situation is beyond repair, but I think that it’s going to take a different kind of thinking to get out of it than it did to get into it.”

Starting Over

Wikipedia:

In West Virginia folklore, the Mothman is a humanoid creature reportedly seen in the Point Pleasant area from November 15, 1966, to December 15, 1967. The first newspaper report was published in the Point Pleasant Register, dated November 16, 1966, titled “Couples See Man-Sized Bird … Creature … Something”.[1] The national press soon picked up the reports and helped spread the story across the United States.

Yes, Joe Manchin is a monster. Now what?

Best take I’ve seen so far.

David Rothkopf on Twitter:

I feel your contempt & loathing for Manchin. He’s earned it. I’ve been seething all morning. It’s far from the first time he has me feeling this way. But justified as our disgust & anger is, I’m not sure they’re constructive. A thread on why hating him is right but not enough… 

First, railing at what a heartless, corrupt, hypocritical, jackass Manchin is wont change anything. And if you’re angry at him for the right reasons-which is seeking a better life for Americans in need, protecting democracy, etc.-the real issue isn’t him. He’s not going away. 

He’s part of a political reality for now in which just one intransigent, ignorant, greedy, yacht-residing, motherfucker of a “Democrat” can ally himself w/50 similarly craven, cold-hearted, power-hungry, one percent-serving, conscienceless Republicans to control our Senate. 

Imagine what our situation would be if Democrats had not won those two Georgia Senate seats in 2020. We’d be getting nothing. Not the $1.9 American Rescue Package, not the infrastructure bill, not the record number of judges who have been confirmed. Nada. 

The upper chamber of our legislature would be suffering from acute McConnellitis, which is to say heart-failure, brain-failure, and conscience-failure. It would effectively be an obstacle to anything the president or the House of Representatives sought to get done. 

Manchin has actually made a difference for the better. He’s a monstrosity as a politician and responsible for the needless suffering and deprivation of millions. But without him even less would have gotten done this year. 

He’s also probably the best the Democrats are likely to get out of West Virginia. That shouldn’t be the case. The state depends on Democratic driven programs and would have been a big beneficiary of BBB. But it’s conservative and that is not changing overnight. 

So our focus needs to be on a.) playing the legislative hand we have been dealt and b.) adding to the Democrats margin of power in the Senate. These two things are not unrelated. 

Even more important than BBB is voting rights reform. In the past week there have been modest signs that progress might be possible there. But it will require filibuster reform. And that will require not just Manchin but Sinema and other waivering Dems as well. 

If Biden can work a deal that can get meaningful voting rights legislation through it will stem the massive, systematic, coast-to-coast efforts of Republicans to gut our democracy and rig future votes in their favor. What’s more, it’s probably our last best hope in that regard. 

So, step one needs to be trying to find the path to that filibuster reform and voting rights legislation. It might mean reinstating the talking filibuster or other such changes. But getting it passed will require Manchin and Sinema to reverse their stands. 

This should be the top legislative focus of the president and the Dem leadership now. If there is a shred of hope, we must work toward this goal. Because the risk to our democracy is so great. And because only with fair elections can we add to the Dem majority in the Senate. 

Building that Dem majority should be another focus of Dems who are incensed by Manchin. We must identify and work to flip vulnerable seats. If you care, donate to Dem candidates. Volunteer. 

Do whatever you can to produce Georgia-like results in key states like Penn., Ohio, NC, Mo., Fla and Wi. And protect vulnerable Dem seats like Ga., Ariz., Nev. and NH. (This is especially vital if Manchin &/or Sinema screw the country and don’t do what’s right on reform.) 

The other thing we can do if we care about the huge environmental and human benefits BBB would have produced is find ways to structure those elements of the bill that will work for Manchin, etc. He wants 10 year programs that pay for themselves. Give it to him. 

Continue reading “Starting Over”

Manchin’s “No” on BBB, Climate action, Draws Psaki-bomb Response

UPDATE:

The White House:

Senator Manchin’s comments this morning on FOX are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances. Weeks ago, Senator Manchin committed to the President, at his home in Wilmington, to support the Build Back Better framework that the President then subsequently announced. Senator Manchin pledged repeatedly to negotiate on finalizing that framework “in good faith.”

On Tuesday of this week, Senator Manchin came to the White House and submitted—to the President, in person, directly—a written outline for a Build Back Better bill that was the same size and scope as the President’s framework, and covered many of the same priorities. While that framework was missing key priorities, we believed it could lead to a compromise acceptable to all. Senator Manchin promised to continue conversations in the days ahead, and to work with us to reach that common ground. If his comments on FOX and written statement indicate an end to that effort, they represent a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position, and a breach of his commitments to the President and the Senator’s colleagues in the House and Senate.

Senator Manchin claims that this change of position is related to inflation, but the think tank he often cites on Build Back Better—the Penn Wharton Budget Institute—issued a report less than 48 hours ago that noted the Build Back Better Act will have virtually no impact on inflation in the short term, and, in the long run, the policies it includes will ease inflationary pressures. Many leading economists with whom Senator Manchin frequently consults also support Build Back Better.

Build Back Better lowers costs that families pay. It will reduce what families pay for child care. It will reduce what they pay for prescription drugs. It will lower health care premiums. And it puts a tax cut in the pockets of families with kids. If someone is concerned about the impact that higher prices are having on families, this bill gives them a break.

Senator Manchin cited deficit concerns in his statement. But the plan is fully paid for, is the most fiscally responsible major bill that Congress has considered in years, and reduces the deficit in the long run. The Congressional Budget Office report that the Senator cites analyzed an unfunded extension of Build Back Better. That’s not what the President has proposed, not the bill the Senate would vote on, and not what the President would support. Senator Manchin knows that: The President has told him that repeatedly, including this week, face to face.

Continue reading “Manchin’s “No” on BBB, Climate action, Draws Psaki-bomb Response”

No License for Disinformation: Doctors Against Bullshit

https://twitter.com/NLFD_org/status/1472388050307010560?s=20

De Beaumont Foundation:

A new report released today urges state medical licensing bodies to investigate doctors who are deliberately spreading misleading or false COVID-19 information. And an overwhelming majority of the public agree: Nine in 10 Americans say doctors who intentionally spread misinformation about COVID-19 should be held accountable, according to new polling conducted by Morning Consult for the de Beaumont Foundation.

In the report, Disinformation Doctors: Licensed to Mislead, public health advocates No License for Disinformation and the de Beaumont Foundation offer an expert analysis on a path forward to counter doctors’ attacks on science and medicine and prevent unnecessary COVID-19 deaths.

The report argues that state medical boards have the grounds under states’ Medical Practice Acts to take disciplinary action against doctors who are deliberately spreading disinformation. But almost two years into the pandemic, they have largely failed to take action.

“Misinformation is a public health crisis, and ‘disinformation doctors’ are making it worse,” said Brian C. Castrucci, DrPH, president and chief executive officer of the de Beaumont Foundation. “Lives are at stake. State medical boards have the ability and the responsibility to counter the spread of misinformation by taking real action against the biggest offenders.”

“A small but vocal minority of physicians are exploiting the credibility that comes with their medical licenses to disseminate disinformation to both their patients and the public,” said Nick Sawyer, MD, MBA, FACEP, an emergency room physician and executive director of No License for Disinformation. “The trust that our patients and the public instill in doctors is paramount; and state medical boards are undermining that trust by failing to hold these doctors accountable for their dangerous and deceptive actions.”

Can Reality Denial be Countered?

Nothing is going to work for everybody, and some hard core deniers are just hopeless, see examples on this page, but people out there are doing real work on how to push back the tide of ignorance.

CBC:

It’s possible to change the mind of someone who holds views that aren’t backed up by scientific evidence, according to science philosopher Lee McIntyre.

Science denialism comes in many forms: climate change deniers, people who are anti-vaxxers, who believe COVID is a hoax, that evolution isn’t real, and who think the Earth is flat. 

With the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change creating huge challenges for humanity, denying science has never been so dangerous. 

So, what can you do if that science denier is someone you care about — or maybe even someone in your family? 

McIntyre, a research fellow at the Center for Philosophy and History of Science at Boston University, decided to explore this topic in a new book titled, How to Talk to a Science Denier: Conversations with Flat Earthers, Climate Deniers, and Others Who Defy Reason. 

McIntyre spoke to Quirks & Quarkshost Bob McDonald about how science deniers construct and defend their beliefs with evidence-based insights into how to change their minds. 

Here is part of their conversation.

You write in your book that there’s a common script behind all science denial reasoning, and that if we know the script, we can change it. So, what is the script? 

This script was discovered by Mark and Chris Hoofnagle, and it was developed further by John Cook and Stephen Lewandowsky, who are cognitive scientists and it goes like this: there are five tropes of science denial reasoning.

Every science denier cherry picks data, believes in conspiracy theories, engages in illogical reasoning, relies on fake experts and denigrates real experts, and here’s my favourite: that science has to be perfect in order to be credible. 

Now, if you understand that script, you’re way ahead of the game. 

There was a study in Nature Human Behavior in June of 2019 which vindicated that model. It’s called technique rebuttal and I was very gratified to see that that was really the first empirical evidence to show that it could be effective in convincing science deniers to give up their beliefs. 

Continue reading “Can Reality Denial be Countered?”