IPCC estimates of permafrost thaw and carbon release – it’s about time they pay attention to Katy Walter-Anthony’s work and remind themselves of the work of Andy MacDougall and collaborators on what an ECS of 5C means for carbon release, and methane release. You don’t need a highly unlikely methane hydrate “burb” to wreck havoc. Just conventional near-surface carbon thawing into ponds at rapidly accelerating rates will easily take the place of any carbon we might conserve through our decarbonizing energy sources.
IPCC estimates of permafrost thaw and carbon release – it’s about time they pay attention to Katy Walter-Anthony’s work and remind themselves of the work of Andy MacDougall and collaborators on what an ECS of 5C means for carbon release, and methane release. You don’t need a highly unlikely methane hydrate “burb” to wreck havoc. Just conventional near-surface carbon thawing into ponds at rapidly accelerating rates will easily take the place of any carbon we might conserve through our decarbonizing energy sources.
Hah! You can see the year after the Pinatubo eruption (1991) in the graph.