Month: June 2021

Infrastructure Two-Track puts GOP in “Challenging position”

A lot of hand-wringing about the infrastructure compromise, ignoring the “Two-Track” approach that Dems ae pushing.
How are Dems doing on Infrastructure bill? Ask Mitch.

Raw Story:

On Fox News Thursday, following the announcement from the White House that they had reached a bipartisan deal on infrastructure but would be continuing with a reconciliation process that could let Democrats pass additional measures on a party-line vote, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) expressed his worry that Republicans are in a “very, very challenging” place.

The fundamental problem is that for all the GOP’s efforts to secure agreements like protecting their 2017 tax cuts, there is little to stop Democrats from just putting the measures they don’t want in the reconciliation bill anyway — and indeed may be even more likely to do so if Republicans tank the bipartisan deal. But, McConnell noted, Democrats could just do that anyway even if the deal passes.

“It puts all of us Republicans who think the 2017 tax bill was the key to America’s economic success as of February 2020 in the position of, if we cooperate with them in passing the infrastructure bill, all the Democrats have to line up and fracture the 2017 tax bill, raising taxes on individuals, on estates, on companies, and the rest,” said McConnell. “It puts us in a very, very challenging position. So I would say we need to keep talking here, because I think the bill, is going to have to have Republican support.”

UPDATE:

If these guys are unhappy, I’m happy.

Raw Story:

In an interview with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-Sc) late Thursday night, the senior Republican had a meltdown upon hearing five of his Republican colleagues in the Senate had agreed with Democrats on an infrastructure bill that was tied to reconciliation.

Continue reading “Infrastructure Two-Track puts GOP in “Challenging position””

EVs to Dominate Sooner than Thought

EY (Ernst & Young):

  • Combined electric vehicle sales in the US, China and Europe to outstrip all other engine sales by 2033
  • By 2045, non-EV sales will shrink to less than 1% of overall sales
  • Europe is expected to lead EV sales volumes until 2031, with China taking the lead from 2032 to 2050

Electric vehicle (EV) sales in the US, China and Europe will outstrip all other engines five years sooner than previously expected, according to new EY research and analysis. The figures come as EY launches the EY Mobility Lens Forecaster, an artificial intelligence (AI) powered forecast modeling tool that provides an outlook for the supply and demand of mobility products and services through 2050.

The latest predictions show that by 2028 EV sales in Europe will surpass those of other powertrains, a trend that will be repeated in China by 2033 and in the US by 2036. The analysis also shows that by 2045, non-EV sales will shrink to less than 1% of overall sales. In terms of EV sales volumes, Europe is expected to lead the way until 2031, with China taking the lead from 2032 to 2050.

Randall Miller, EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Leader, says:

“A mix of changing consumer attitudes, ambitious climate-focused regulations and technology evolution is about to change the landscape of vehicle buying forever. While the automotive industry has begun to more fully embrace the move toward electrification, the impact of this seismic shift is arriving sooner than many expected. This new outlook also has implications for governments and energy industries in terms of infrastructure and electricity generation and storage, and forward-looking organizations are already using this data to help ensure a smooth transition to this new EV-dominated market, which will be here much sooner than expected.”

As the global auto industry continues to recover from the issues it’s facing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it will be met by a new group of car buyers. Many people who had rejected ownership in lieu of ridesharing and public transport have reassessed in the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to EY analysis.

The EY Mobility Consumer Index published in November showed that almost one-third of non-car owners planned to buy a car in the next six months (19% plan to buy new, 12% used cars), and about half of those are millennials. Among both current car owners and non-car owners, 30% said they’d prefer a non-ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle for their next purchase.

In terms of regulatory support, the new US administration’s announcements include continuity of EV buying incentives and the development of charging infrastructure. In Europe, incentives to purchase EVs are part of COVID-19-related relief measures in France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Austria. The UK has announced that it will ban the sale of ICE vehicles starting from 2030. China also continues support for EVs through regulatory measures, wide product range and increasing customer demand. From the supply perspective, automakers globally have also begun to set their own twilight dates for gasoline-and diesel-powered vehicles, in favor of EVs.

Continue reading “EVs to Dominate Sooner than Thought”

Slow Progress on Infrastructure

I felt better about the infrastructure bill after hearing from Elizabeth Warren last night, and the President today.

The Value of Local Clean Power

Marty Lagina may look familiar if you follow his History Channel series “The Curse of Oak Island” – but Marty made his fortune in oil and gas before becoming a wind and solar developer well known in his home state of Michigan.

Looking over interviews from 2018, his stands out for significant, hard won insights.

Continue reading “The Value of Local Clean Power”

Big Midwest Utility Will Exit Coal by 2025

Above, my video of last year described the rapid transition of big, conservative, old line, midwestern, coal based utilities to clean energy.
I included clips from a talk by then-CEO of Consumers, Patty Poppe. Poppe became a bit of a rock star in energy circles as she evolved rapidly from a traditionalist (she says she had an “I Heart Coal” bumpersticker just a few years ago) to an industry leader in the clean transition. In recent months, she has moved to Pacific Gas and Electric, (frying pan >—> fire) and I wish her well.
What’s happened in the last 5 years in the midwest is pretty stunning, in that the goals that many utilities are setting far outstrip modest Statewide Clean energy goals – in large part because in beginning to meet those goals 10 years ago, utilities recognized the value that clean energy was bringing to their systems.
As the video shows, the transition is propagating across the heartland.

I’ve been telling people, based on the rapid buildout and good performance of clean energy, that we were going to see the decarbonizing goal posts moved up once again, and that has now happened.

MLive:

Consumers Energy wants to close its remaining coal plants 15 years earlier than planned, the Michigan utility announced on Wednesday, June 23.

The goal is to retire the company’s final five coal plants – which are near Holland and Bay City – by 2025 and buy four natural gas plants to replace the 2,000 megawatts of energy that would be lost.

Consumers is sending the proposal to the Michigan Public Service Commission, which has a year to review and decide on the plan. Also a component – Consumers wants to transition to 90% clean energy resources by 2040.

The plan includes more than $1 billion of investments, said Brandon Hofmeister, a senior vice president at Consumers. Costs to customers would be spread out over the life of the plan.

The new proposal is $650 million cheaper than the company’s previous plan. The company estimates it can save $90 million in operation and maintenance costs alone by running four new natural gas plants instead of five coal plants.

If approved, Consumers would be one of the first utilities in the nation to be coal-free.

“I think it’s a dramatic win for the planet,” Hofmeister said.

The plan would cut carbon dioxide emissions by 63 million tons – savings equivalent to getting more than 12 million cars off the road, said President and CEO Garrick Rochow.

All three of the Campbell coal plants near Holland would close in 2025 under this plan. Originally, two of the three were going to close in 2031 and the other was slated to retire in 2040.

The two Karn coal plants near Bay City would retire in 2023 instead of 2031, if approved, in addition to the Karn natural gas plants.

Continue reading “Big Midwest Utility Will Exit Coal by 2025”

Experts: Texas Grid Still Vulnerable

Above, review of February’s Texas grid debacle.

Below, Michael Webber, U of Texas, Andy Dessler, Texas A&M, and Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech, new analysis of the continuing vulnerability of the Texas Grid.
Although the ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) grid is better configured for summer than winter, it is still vulnerable to heat waves, and has had 2 close calls since the February 2021 debacle, even before summer took hold.

The Hill:

This past February, snow, ice and record cold temperatures from Winter Storm Uri caused energy supply to plummet, triggering a cascade of failures that left more than 10 million Texans in the dark before presenting them with tens of billions of dollars in electricity and gas charges systemwide. In all, nearly 30 gigawatts of gas, coal and nuclear were offline during the crisis.

Last week the challenge was extreme heat rather than cold, but the outcome feels eerily similar: More than 10 gigawatts of mainly fossil-fuel thermal plants were already off-line with forced outages. Consumers are being asked to conserve and, once again, the Texas grid is on the edge of blackouts. 

The power problems associated with these two very different weather events illustrate how urgent it is that we prepare for a future where climate change is fueling an even wider range of extreme weather. 

How do we do this? First, it is crucial to realize that keeping the power on is a public good. While generators lose some revenue when the power goes out, most of the costs of power outages are paid by society. It’s estimated that Uri, for example, cost the citizens of Texas upwards of $200 billion. Its greatest impacts fell on the poorest and most marginalized communities who already lacked the infrastructure and resources that would help them weather the storm.  

Power companies are presently underinvesting in the infrastructure needed to keep the power on. This is where the government can play a role to ensure that energy producers make the changes needed to make the energy system more resilient. Senate Bill 3, recently passed by the Texas legislature, was a step in that direction. It required power plants to winterize; but it did not require similar improvements by the gas system and did not directly address summer reliability.  

It’s also important to revise our markets and policies to foster behaviors and technology adoption that will make the grid affordable, clean and reliable. Stricter performance standards and market signals for reliability and cleanliness could and should be created within ERCOT (the organization that runs the Texas grid). Power generators could be paid for new grid support services they provide and renewables rewarded for the air pollution and heat-trapping gas emissions they avoid.

Second, energy systems need to be built for the weather of the future, not the past. Rather than looking backwards at what the climate used to be, we have to build climate projections into our plans. Every season in Texas has been warming since the 1950s and human-caused climate change has already increased high temperatures during our most extreme heat waves by 3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit. Despite these observed trends, however, ERCOT does not incorporate climate change into their long-range forecastof energy demand. In fact, the words “global warming” and “climate change” appear nowhere in their planning document.

Third, we need to be less wasteful with our energy. Because approximately half of summer peak electricity demand is from residential air conditioning, energy efficiency is an important tool for improving grid performance. With more efficient homes, it’s easier to keep interiors at a comfortable temperature while consuming less energy, shaving peak power demand and lowering energy bills. 

Continue reading “Experts: Texas Grid Still Vulnerable”

New Heat Wave to Slam West

It has barely cooled off from a scorching June, now summer begins in earnest in the west.

Meanwhile, in the upper midwest, we had frost warnings the night before last.

Earther:

The West hasn’t totally cooled off, but the region has gotten a slight reprieve from the heat that has dried up reservoirs, curtailed hydropower, and otherwise wrought havoc on the megadrought-afflicted region. Unfortunately, all good(ish) things must come to an end.

The National Weather Service is warning of a “Record-Breaking and Dangerous Heatwave” hitting this weekend and early next week. Weather models are also coalescing around blistering heat. If the forecasts come to fruition, we’re not just talking about a few daily records falling here and there. We’re talking about a heat wave for the ages that could absolutely destroy all-time records from Washington to California as well as parts of Canada.

In what’s becoming an all-too-familiar pattern for those in the western half of the U.S., high pressure is expected to move in and park itself over the region in the coming days. That will usher in sunny skies and allow heat to start to build. By Sunday, a region from the Yukon to Southern California could see temperatures well above normal. The bullseye of heat will center on the Pacific Northwest where temperatures could be an eye-watering 40 degrees Fahrenheit (22 degrees Celsius) above normal.

Meanwhile, leaked IPCC report has more bad tidings.

Moving Conservatives on Climate

I’m doing a lot of work in rural areas, mostly in Michigan, which are heavily red.
I can tell you that climate is not the winning issue in discussions about clean energy, but that it is always, at least, in the room, and becoming more so.

The Climate Comms group at Yale University has been working on new persuasive avenues, and they have some numbers.

Yale Program on Climate Communication:

Enacting ambitious and durable climate policy will likely require bipartisan support. Although our research shows that Democrats increasingly think climate change should be a high priority for the president and Congress, issue priority has remained stagnant among Republicans. Increasing Republicans’ understanding of the existence, causes, and harms of climate change is a foundation on which to build bipartisan climate policy support.

In support of Fenton Communications and other partner organizations, we helped develop New Climate Voices—a campaign designed to convince Republicans that climate change is happening, human-caused, and harmful. The campaign involved one month (July 19–August 20, 2019) of targeted video and banner advertising delivered to conservatives in two competitive congressional districts: Missouri-02 and Georgia-07. Advertisements were displayed on YouTube, Facebook, and on websites across the Internet.

The advertisements featured messengers and content that were expected to be effective with this audience. In one video, Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist and evangelical Christian, speaks about the connection between her Christian faith and climate change. In another video, Air Force General Ron Keys explains that climate change poses a national security threat and creates challenges for the U.S. military. In another, former U.S. Congressman Bob Inglis (R–SC) describes how his conservative values inspire his drive for climate action.

The campaign had large positive effects on the climate change beliefs and attitudes of Republicans in the two congressional districts. Relative to control groups that did not receive the advertising, the treated groups exhibited a seven percentage point increase in belief that global warming is happening, a 10 point increase in understanding that global warming is human-caused, an 11 point increase in global warming issue importance, a 13 point increase in worry about global warming, a 12 point increase in perceptions of personal harm, and a 16 point increase in perceptions of harm to future generations.

As the sample ads on this page show, 2 key components are trusted messengers, who appeal to common concerns among conservatives – in this case, Christian faith, and National Security.

Continue reading “Moving Conservatives on Climate”