Last 60 days of Arctic sea ice concentration.
— Hot Earth Bot (@HotEarthBot) August 22, 2020
Source: Universität Bremen pic.twitter.com/dwTg8DdJgI
May not be a record low year, but impressive melt nonetheless.
Stay tuned.
Projecting #Arctic #seaice extent from August 21st, using losses from the previous 20 years, none produce a minimum below 2012. The average melt rate would place 2020 at 2nd lowest, while the slowest melt would result in 5th lowest. 19/20 produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record pic.twitter.com/O07VJxNwrE
— Dr. Samuel Hayes (@Icy_Samuel) August 22, 2020
What are the odds an a “lowest ever” minimum this year?
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2020/
This year’s melting season is unlike any previous year in recent Arctic history, so how much store should be placed in Samuel’s projections?
This has never been done before for example:
https://greatwhitecon.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Polarstern-20200821-0800.png
we’ve still got maybe a month to annual minimum, so you are right anything can happen.
Another arctic cyclone, for instance, could upset the applecart.
from 2012, a cyclone helped that year become the record low
https://youtu.be/9Gsr1503TNg
We’ve already had one sub 970 hPa Arctic cyclone this year:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2020/#Jul-28
What are the odds on another one like this?
https://greatwhitecon.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Cyclone-Aqua-2020-07-28-2500-1536×1497.jpg
I love the world of cheap computrons. I remember as a kid using a pencil and a chart of the Gulf of Mexico to track hurricanes based on news reports of their lat/long coordinates. Uphill. Both ways.
According to Mr. Moore computrons get cheaper every year.
Unfortunately the results of all that number crunching are ignored by “the powers that be”.
We can’t suppress it any longer: I was part of the 2011 commission to move Santa’s workshop to Antarctica.
And where are you going to send the Easter Bunny?
The ice extent statistics is something concrete that we can see from NSIDC
and others, each month. It seems highly likely we will be sea-ice free in the summer, in the Arctic before 2050.
But that is not the whole story – the story is also the thickness, albedo and quality of the ice. And the story is not very comforting.
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“The North Pole ice sheet has thawed so much that it has shattered, climate researchers have discovered.
Scientists onboard the German research ship Polarstern yesterday reached the Earth’s northernmost point and said they were surprised by how freely the vessel could move in waters typically known to be frozen solid.”
“For this region, the current situation is historic. Normally it’s wise to avoid the region north of Greenland because it’s home to the thicker and older ice and virtually impassable. But now we’re finding extended stretches of open water reaching nearly to the Pole.”
https://www.9news.com.au/world/climate-change-north-pole-arctic-heatwave-polar-ice-cap-melt-historic-heatwave-scientists-global-warming/31862db7-83f1-41aa-af32-a8a16dfacb7c
“This means we need to prepare for an extra ten centimetres or so of global sea level rise by 2100 from Greenland alone.”
https://phys.org/news/2020-08-sea-quickens-greenland-ice-sheet.html
” Ice sheet melt and thermal expansion now account for about two-thirds of observed global mean sea level rise. Mountain glacier meltwater currently contributes another 20%, while declining freshwater water storage on land adds the remaining 10%.”
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3012/nasa-led-study-reveals-the-causes-of-sea-level-rise-since-1900/
“This new study shows that an abnormal influx of salty warm water from the Atlantic Ocean is weakening and thinning the halocline, allowing more mixing. According to the new study, warm water of Atlantic origin is now moving much closer to the surface.”
https://news.uaf.edu/arctic-ocean-moorings-shed-light-on-winter-sea-ice-loss/
Under a year ago the New Scientist was reporting a 4 million tonne loss – how quickly that news has changed …
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“Earth has lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice in less than 30 years
A total of 28 trillion tonnes of ice have disappeared from the surface of the Earth since 1994. That is stunning conclusion of UK scientists who have analysed satellite surveys of the planet’s poles, mountains and glaciers to measure how much ice coverage lost because of global heating triggered by rising greenhouse gas emissions.
The scientists – based at Leeds and Edinburgh universities and University College London – describe the level of ice loss as “staggering” and warn that their analysis indicates that sea level rises, triggered by melting glaciers and ice sheets, could reach a metre by the end of the century.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/23/earth-lost-28-trillion-tonnes-ice-30-years-global-warming
sorry for the typo 4 million should read 4 trillion ..
New Scientist 10 December 2019.. . ..
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Greenland lost almost 4 trillion tonnes of ice in less than 30 years
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2226676-greenland-lost-almost-4-trillion-tonnes-of-ice-in-less-than-30-years/
May not be a record year for extent, but so far it is for volume.
Once those ice cubes disappear, the water will likely start warming sooner and faster, unless a lens of cool fresh water / ice prevents such a feedback (almost no ice to cool the surface water).
“It is for volume”
It isn’t (yet!) according to PIOMAS:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2020/#Aug-19
https://greatwhitecon.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/piomas-anom-20200815.png
I saw something with a different take and graph … don’t recall where.