If you’ve been paying attention to the government shutdown, we’re learning a lot about just how close to the edge a lot of “middle class” Americans are, financially.
It’s hard to get people to think of the next hundred years when they’re just struggling to get thru the next month.
Two long vids from the legendary Aussie debunker.
Financial Times (paywalled):
The tragedy is that while the scientists and technologists have won the argument, the climate sceptics and deniers have effectively won the policy debate: we are doing far too little, far too late. It is now essential to transform the discussion from fear of what the carbon-transition will cost to hope for the opportunities it will bring. What is needed now are people and organisations — above all, politicians — able and willing to persuade humanity that a promised land of sustainable prosperity for all is within our collective reach.
Former Federal Reserve chairs and nearly 30 Nobel Laureate economists have united in a bipartisan support for a carbon tax as way to address climate change.
Ben Bernanke (R), Alan Greenspan (R), Paul Volcker (D), and Janet Yellen (D), are among the 45 economists who signed a statement published in the Wall Street Journal that calls for “immediate national action” to combat climate change.
Continue reading “The Weekend Wonk: Potholer on the Conservative Solution to Climate Change”
As evidence, uhm, floods in that Florida real estate is being impacted by sea level rise, even the climate deniers like newly elected Florida Guv Ron DeSantis have to respond.
Scientists from the non-profit First Street Foundation find $7.4 billion has been lost in home value across 5 coastal states from 2005 to 2017 due to sea level rise flooding. These findings have been integrated into Flood iQ, a sea level rise flooding prediction tool from First Street Foundation, so individuals can find property-specific value loss and aggregated total city loss.
Steven A. McAlpine, Head of Data Science at First Street Foundation, and Dr. Jeremy R. Porter, a Columbia University professor and First Street Foundation statistical consultant, recently released an academic publication in the journal Population Research and Policy Review proving $465 million was lost in Miami-Dade County real-estate market value from 2005 to 2016 due to sea level rise flooding.This peer-reviewed analysis was expanded to cover all of Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia by analyzing over 5.5 million real estate transactions in these states and extrapolating the results to 12.2 million properties, to find a total home value loss of $7.4 billion since 2005. Lists of the top 250 most impacted cities and ZIP codes have been released.
Previous academic studies have forecasted the negative impact sea level rise will have on the value of coastal properties in the future but “Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade, Florida” is the first to show that depreciation has already taken place.
By identifying the predictors of home value, such as square footage or proximity to amenities, while controlling for economic trends like the 2008 housing recession, the scientists were able to isolate the impact frequent tidal flooding, caused by sea level rise, has had on home value.
“It is one thing to project what the future impacts of sea level rise could be, but it is quite another to know that the market has already responded negatively to this threat,” said McAlpine.
After eight years of Gov. Rick Scott degrading science and dismissing climate change, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Thursday he will appoint a chief science officer to deal with “current and emerging environmental concerns most pressing to Floridians.”
This welcome turnaround came just two days after DeSantis’ swearing-in, in an executive order that also calls for $2.5 billion in Everglades restoration, creates a task force on blue-green toxic algae and instructs the South Florida Water Management District to immediately start the next phase of the reservoir project south of Lake Okeechobee.
In addition to the chief science officer’s remit to “coordinate and prioritize scientific data, research, monitoring and analysis” on Florida’s environment, the order also creates an Office of Environmental Accountability and Transparency charged with corralling scientific research and data “to ensure that all agency actions are aligned with key environmental priorities.”
This is whole new tone for a governor’s office that told Floridians, basically, that we couldn’t afford to both create jobs and protect the environment. Scott cut millions of dollars from water management district budgets, which meant shedding scientists, engineers and other experts; slashed more than 200 water-monitoring stations; sharply reduced policing of polluters; rolled back growth-management laws.
Continue reading “New Florida Guv Denies Climate Change, but Has to Acknowledge Sea Level Rise”
The day I learned that Exxon-Mobile knew about climate change in the 1970swas the first time in decades I’d thought of Captain Planet.
Well, excluding this Robot Chicken sketch. (above)
–For those of you not familiar with Ted Turner’s brainchild, Captain Planet was a Saturday morning cartoon about five teenagers of broad ethnicities, one of whom had a spider monkey. They were given power rings by a lady ghost named Gaia the Earth Mother who lived under the ground. These teens were known as the Planeteers, and each had a ring that controlled one elemental force: Fire, Water, Earth, Wind, and Heart (which is not a traditional element, but he could control elephants and tigers so we didn’t question it.) Every Saturday morning on TBS the Planeteers would use their power rings to try and stop supervillians, one of whom was a mutant pig man named Hoggish Greedly, from destroying the environment for their personal gain.
The high schoolers would inevitably fail, but with their powers combined, they would summon a half-naked blue adult with a mullet to punch the mutant pig man in the face.
Gen Zers’ views about climate change are virtually identical to those of Millennials and not markedly different from Gen Xers. About half in all three generations say the earth is getting warmer due to human activity. Boomers are somewhat more skeptical of this than Gen Zers or Millennials. Members of the Silent Generation are least likely to say this (38%) and are more likely to say the earth is warming mainly due to natural patterns (28%) than are Gen Zers, Millennials and Gen Xers.
Among Republicans, Gen Z stands out from older generations as the least likely to say the earth is warming because of natural patterns – 18% say this. By comparison, 30% of Millennial, 36% of Gen X and roughly four-in-ten Boomer (42%) and Silent Generation Republicans (41%) say the same. Almost no generation gap exists among Democrats in views on this issue.
The biggest generational gap is visible in the belief that global warming will pose a serious threat in one’s own lifetime. This clearly reflects the different timeframes involved for each age group; the older one gets, the less time in one’s lifetime for global warming’s effects to be realized.
The second-largest age gap comes with the belief that global warming is caused by human activities.
Younger adults are also significantly more likely to think news reports on global warming underestimate the problem. They are more likely to worry about the problem and to believe there is a scientific consensus that global warming is occurring.
Younger and older Americans come closest in agreement in their views that the effects of global warming have already begun, and in self-reports of understanding global warming.
These figures are based on combined data from Gallup’s annual Environment polls from 2015 to 2018. Continue reading “Gen Z: Like Millennials, Progressive on Climate”
You don’t need education if you’re planning for a nation of serfs.
As the shutdown continues to harm U.S. science in myriad ways, I worry a lot that we’re on the cusp of a long-term decline in U.S. science.
U.S. research universities are the envy of the world. These research universities and the research they generate produce enormous economic benefits for us — see, e.g., Silicon Valley, biomedical research …
Our research universities also attract the smartest students from around the world; they all want to come to the U.S. to pursue graduate studies.
This in turn is one of the things that makes our universities so good — we get the world’s smartest students. I note that there are plenty of smart Americans, but there are not enough who want to get a Ph.D. to do all of the research our universities are doing.Many of these foreign-born students return home after graduation, which is why if you go to China you’ll find their faculty is full of U.S. Ph.D.s. Because they’ve lived in the U.S. for several years, these faculty spread a positive view of the U.S., which is good for us. But here’s the kicker — we keep the very smartest of them. The most productive, most original, most entrepreneurial, etc. get faculty jobs here in the U.S. or jobs at gov’t labs. See @climateofGavin, @khayhoe and many others for examples.
This is the key advantage U.S. science has over other countries. When I worked at NASA Goddard, I marveled that you could walk down the halls and see people who were born all over the world. We’ve taken the smartest people from around the world and they work for us now!
A lot of what Trump has done is diminishing the U.S. lead in science. This shutdown is harming science in numerous ways, and the immigration policies also make it harder and less attractive for very smart people to come to the U.S. e.g.,At some point, smart people will say, “I don’t want to go there.” Perhaps that will make some Trump supporters happy, but I can assure you it will degrade our scientific enterprise and we will be worse-off for it.
Many other countries would love to take the mantle of science leader away from the U.S. China, for example, is investing huge amounts of money in research and research infrastructure. If we’re not cognizant of these risks, the U.S. will become a 2nd-rate science power.
Below, Dr. Dessler at his best, explaining satellite temperature data. Continue reading “Andrew Dessler on the Threat to American Science”
Amid mounting calls to phase out fossil fuels in the face of rapidly worsening climate change, the United States is ramping up oil and gas drilling faster than any other country, threatening to add 1,000 coal plants’ worth of planet-warming gases by the middle of the century, according to a report released Wednesday.
By 2030, the U.S. is on track to produce 60 percent of the world’s new oil and gas supply, an expansion at least four times larger than in any other country. By 2050, the country’s newly tapped reserves are projected to spew 120 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere.
That would make it nearly impossible to keep global warming within the 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial averages, beyond which United Nations scientists forecast climate change to be catastrophic, with upward of $54 trillion in damages.
The findings ― from a report authored by the nonprofit Oil Change International and endorsed by researchers at more than a dozen environmental groups ― are based on industry projections collected by the data service Rystad Energy and compared with climate models used by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s leading climate research body.
A new study released by Oil Change International and 17 partner organizations examines the urgent need for U.S. leadership to manage a rapid and just decline of fossil fuel production.
The United States should be a global leader in winding down fossil fuel use and production. Instead, the U.S. oil and gas industry is gearing up to unleash the largest burst of new carbon emissions in the world between now and 2050. At precisely the time in which the world must begin rapidly decarbonizing to avoid runaway climate disaster, the United States is moving further and faster than any other country to expand oil and gas extraction.
Key findings include:
Unprecedented Oil & Gas Expansion: Between 2018 and 2050, U.S. drilling into new oil and gas reserves could unlock 120 billion metric tons of new carbon pollution, which is equivalent to the lifetime CO2 emissions of nearly 1,000 coal-fired power plants. If not curtailed, U.S. oil and gas expansion will impede the rest of the world’s ability to manage a climate-safe, equitable decline of oil and gas production.
Expansion Hot Spots: Some 90% of U.S. drilling into new oil and gas reserves through 2050 would depend on fracking; nearly 60% of the carbon emissions enabled by new U.S. drilling would come from the epicenters of fracking – the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico and the Appalachian Basin across Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio.
Coal – Too Much Already: Given U.S. coal mining should be phased out by 2030 or sooner if the world is to equitably achieve the Paris Agreement goals, at least 70% of the coal in existing U.S. mines should stay in the ground.
Maxine Waters had it nailed early on.
There is a fossil fuel, climate denial connection with the greatest incidence of treason in the history of the United States.
Below, I stand behind everything I said on an NPR call-in 2 years ago – just a few days after the election.
Continue reading “Is Trump Compromised? Dear Media, Try to Keep Up..”
I went to Miami in. 2016 with Jeff Goodell of Rolling Stone, and saw for myself the rise of sea level enhanced flooding in a poor neighborhood – where scientists have sampled all manner of pathogen and toxic pollutants being percolated up out of the soil and onto the streets where citizens work and children are expected to play.
Miami-Dade has tens of thousands of septic tanks, and a new report reveals most are already malfunctioning — the smelly and unhealthy evidence of which often ends up in people’s yards and homes. It’s a billion-dollar problem that climate change is making worse.
As sea level rise encroaches on South Florida, the Miami-Dade County study shows that thousands more residents may be at risk — and soon. By 2040, 64 percent of county septic tanks (more than 67,000) could have issues every year, affecting not only the people who rely on them for sewage treatment, but the region’s water supply and the health of anyone who wades through floodwaters.
“That’s a huge deal for a developed country in 2019 to have half of the septic tanks not functioning for part of the year,” said Miami Waterkeeper Executive Director Rachel Silverstein. “That is not acceptable.”
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Sea level rise is pushing the groundwater even higher, eating up precious space and leaving the once dry dirt soggy. Waste water doesn’t filter like it’s supposed to in soggy soil. In some cases, it comes back out, turning a front yard into a poopy swamp.
High tides or heavy rains can push feces-filled water elsewhere, including King Tide floodwaters — as pointed out in a 2016 study from Florida International University and NOAA — or possibly the region’s drinking supply.
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In total, there are about 108,000 properties within the county that still use septic, about 105,000 of which are residential. The vast majority (more than 65,000) of the septic systems are in unincorporated Miami-Dade.
Miami Gardens, North Miami Beach, Palmetto Bay and Pinecrest have the most of any city, at about 5,000 each.
Some of those cities will see hundreds more septic tanks experiencing yearly failures within the decade, like North Miami Beach, which has 2,780 homes with septic tanks with periodic issues now. By 2030, that is expected to jump to 3,751.
The report did not forecast past 2040, when the region is expecting around 15 inches of sea rise, a number that is predicted to creep exponentially upward over the decades.
As nuisance flooding increases, the wealthy are moving to higher ground, formerly less desirable areas – and pushing out low income residents. Climate gentrification creating a new generation of climate refugees.
A modern glass home sits on the edge of the water in Miami Beach. The ground-level master suite has a soaking tub that looks out to the ocean, and the bedroom’s glass doors allow the owner to roll out of the sheets and onto the yacht. It is listed for sale at $25 million.
Another Miami home sits on a garbage-strewn street in Little Haiti, about five miles inland. Its owner can walk out the front door and see a dead chicken in the street. It is listed for sale at $559,000, but some experts claim it is a better investment than $25 million mansion.
Continue reading “Come To Miami, Florida’s Sea Level and Sewage Capital”
It’s been kicking around the internet for a while, but the media finally picked up on the eerie “Trump/wall” episode from a forgotten 1950s TV western, worthy of the twilight zone in today’s context.
