The scorching global temps of the first quarter of the year have a lot of scientists scratching their heads and using less-than-reticent language. Whereas a couple months ago we were pretty sure the impending end of El Nino, and possible oncoming La Nina, might make 2016 temps a tough call till at least fall – now some scientists are saying we may already have seen enough to look for a new record.
Our best take on what to expect is that the current El Nino spike will taper off in coming months, but the boost has been so robust, that the course may already be set.
Gavin Schmidt of NASA tweeted a graph showing how the first three months of Land Ocean Temperature Index relate to end-of-year annual temps.
Too soon? I estimate >99% chance of an annual record in 2016 in @NASAGISS temperature data, based on Jan-Mar alone pic.twitter.com/mEDvHxfmjj
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) April 15, 2016
More Trenberth below:
Reblogged this on A Green Road Daily News.
Is a new temp record already locked in? Possibly. If it is, does it change any movement towards addressing the recommendations of scientists and organizations throughout the world?
The time you look at a graph and can’t help saying “Oh shit!”Shared. 🙁