Global temperatures for February showed a disturbing and unprecedented upward spike. It was 1.35℃ warmer than the average February during the usual baseline period of 1951-1980, according to NASA data.
This is the largest warm anomaly of any month since records began in 1880. It far exceeds the records set in 2014 and again in 2015 (the first year when the 1℃ mark was breached).
What is going on? Are we facing a climate emergency?
February temperatures from 1880 to 2016 from NASA GISS data. Values are deviations from the base period of 1951-1980.Stefan Rahmstorf
El Niño plus climate change
Two things are combining to produce the record warmth: the well-known global warming trend caused by our greenhouse gas emissions, and an El Niño in the tropical Pacific.
The record shows that global surface warming has always been overlaid by natural climate variability. The biggest single cause of this variability is the natural cycle between El Niño and La Niña conditions. The El Niño in 1998 was a record-breaker, but now we have one that looks even bigger by some measures.
The pattern of warmth in February shows typical signatures of both long-term global warming and El Niño. The latter is very evident in the tropics.
Further north, the pattern looks similar to other Februaries since the year 2000: particularly strong warming in the Arctic, Alaska, Canada and the northern Eurasian continent. Another notable feature is a cold blob in the northern Atlantic, which has been attributed to a slowdown in the Gulf Stream.
The February warming spike brought us at least 1.6℃ above pre-industrial global average temperatures. This means that, for the first time, we have passed the 1.5℃ international aspirational goal agreed in December in Paris. We are coming uncomfortably close to 2℃.
Fortunately, this is temporary: the El Niño is beginning to subside.
Unfortunately, we have done little about the underlying warming. If unchecked, this will cause these breaches to happen more and more often, with a greater than 2℃ breach perhaps only a couple of decades away.
The greenhouse gases slowly heating the Earth are still increasing in concentration. The 12-month average surpassed 400 parts per million roughly a year ago – the highest level for at least a million years. The average rose even faster in 2015 than previous years (probably also due to the El Niño, as this tends to bring drought to many parts of the globe, meaning less carbon is stored in plant growth).
A glimmer of hope is that our carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have, for the first time in decades, stopped increasing. This trend has been evident over the past couple of years, mainly due to a decline of coal use in China, which recently announced the closure of around 1,000 coal mines.
Have we underestimated global warming?
Does the “spike” change our understanding of global warming? In thinking about climate change, it is important to take the long view. A predominant La Niña-like situation over recent years did not mean global warming had “stopped” as a few public figures were (and probably still are) claiming.
Likewise, a hot spike due to a major El Niño event – even though it is surprisingly hot – doesn’t mean global warming was underestimated. In the longer run the global warming trend agrees very well with longstanding predictions. But these predictions nevertheless paint a picture of a very warm future if emissions are not brought down soon.
The situation is similar to that of a serious illness like cancer: the patient usually does not get slightly worse each day, but has weeks when the family thinks he may be recovering, followed by terrible days of relapse. The doctors do not change their diagnosis each time this happens, because they know this is all a part of the disease.
Here in Australia we have been breaking heat records in the past few months, including 39 straight days in Sydney above 26℃ (double the previous record). News reports seem to be focusing on the role of El Niño, but El Niño does not explain why oceans to the south of Australia, and in the Arctic, are at record high temperatures.
The other half of the story is global warming. This is boosting each successive El Niño, along with all its other effects on ice sheets and sea level, the global ecosystem and extreme weather events.
This is the true climate emergency: it is getting more difficult with each passing year for humanity to prevent temperatures from rising above 2℃. February should remind us how pressing the situation is.
What would you think the beginnings of all those surmised positive feedbacks scientists have been warning us for years about – but were supposed to happen in some unspecified future – might look like today in the real world?
Jumps in the acceleration of temperature rise, sea level rise [10 mm last year], ice loss, methane generation [new records this year]? Quantum jumps in the power of bad weather – maybe like seeing sustained wind speeds of a typhoon suddenly resemble the wind speeds of a large tornado [Haiyan and now also Patricia @ 200-235mph] – or the start of routinely seeing nearly 3 feet of monsoon rainfall in a single day being forecast ?
Re “China […] recently announced the closure of around 1,000 coal mines”: China has closed 7250 coal mines in the last five years and recently announced the closure of another 4300. This will reducing China’s coal production by another 700 MT/year to about 5 GT/year.
While I applaud any reduction in the use of coal, this may have little effect or perhaps even a small positive impact on temps.
The reason is that those dirty plants were probably causing enough sulfate aerosol pollution to offset any temp increase of CO2.
Thank you. I too looked for the source but got the jpg—couldn’t be bothered to search beyond, but it looks like Peter didn’t leave much if any of it out.
I share Ginger Baker’s thought that what is now occurring is what had been predicted for a long time, and wonder how much things are going to quiet down once the shift away from the El Nino occurs. Positive feedbacks lurk under every rock.
Something that is bumping around in the back of my head is the question of how much heat is really trapped in the ocean and what would be the result if it continued to be released a la El Nino. The thought of doing the math gives me a headache, and we don’t have really good ocean temp data, but water holds a lot of heat, and the thin skin of air could continue to heat up rapidly if ocean currents behave abnormally and disrupt global heat transfer.
Should have added, the heat capacity of water is large compared to other fluids, hence why it is used in cooling and heating systems. For pure water it is noted as 1.0 calories/gram/oC, ice (not freezing or thawing) is just 0.51 calories/gram/oC. When one considers the volume of the oceans viz a viz the atmosphere and then factor in the masses it is clear how much heat can be stored in water almost unnoticed except for the physical effects of rising sea level from expansion.
The amount of heat energy required to warm large masses of ice to the melting point should be clear but just a fraction of the heat energy required to phase change ice to water which is 80 calories/gram, and yet so much of the world’s cryosphere is in meltdown. Don’t expect most Trumplets to grasp these things, some do but avoid mention.
Yes, you are getting into the math that I wanted to avoid, but you reinforce my point. If we could gather all the oceans into a sphere and do the same with the atmosphere (at sea level density) the volumes would be not that much different in size but the mass of the oceans would be ~1000X greater. In very rough figures, that means one cubic centimeter of water losing one degree’s worth of “heat” to the atmosphere will raise the temperature of 1 liter of air by one degree. A lot of heat storage capacity there, and as this year’s El Nino shows, the ability to dump a lot of it into the atmosphere quickly.
PS This graphic shows how thin the skin of water and and air that all life inhabits really is, as well as how small the volume is in relation to the size of the Earth. No wonder it’s starting to overflow and behave badly because of the garbage “civilization” is dumping into it.
Something that is bumping around in the back of my head is the question of how much heat is really trapped in the ocean and what would be the result if it continued to be released a la El Nino.
I think this is what we could now be seeing with succeeding El Niño events, each one has more heat energy than the previous record one before. This is a tough call and where will the succeeding La Niña be like, anything like the one after that 97-98 El Niño peak.
In other words what will the charts here look like in a years time.
More and more articles from reliable sources are appearing on the negative state of the Arctic Circle – one of the latest from the University of Alaska Fairbanks on “Degrading ice wedges reshape Arctic landscape” epitomizes a positive feedback system, and it the degradation is widespread through Alaska, Canada and Russia.
The recent NASA GISS figures were shocking, the Northern Land Only anomaly was a heartbreaking +2.36°C. For those who like to think of conspiracy among scientists, JMA figures agree, and the Siberian Times prints an alarming picture of Russian temperature observations in Siberia.
This shocking story, of February’s temperature anomaly spike, has not even been mentioned in many well-known media outlets, such as the B.B.C, who we rely on to keep us informed.
I know I’m beginning to sound like a grumpy old man (which I am) writing a letter to the local newspaper, but there are many much younger than I urging action.
Maybe the temperature anomaly will level off in the variability of post EL Nino, but I wouldn’t count on it too much. Just because it has before doesn’t mean it will continue, as IBM likes to say THINK (Positive Feedbacks).
If the U.S election swings the wrong way it may be time to echo the hollowed words of Gene Roddenberry, D. C. Fontana, Harlan Ellison, David Gerrold, Theodore Sturgeon, Jerome Bixby, Norman Spinrad
““Here we’re combining observations from people working in the field across the Arctic — Russia, Canada and Alaska — where we’re seeing the same ice wedge melting phenomenon,” said Liljedahl, the lead author of the study.
Such thawing could bring significant changes to the hydrology of much of the Arctic as it alters the ground-surface topography. Melting of ice wedge tops makes the ground that surrounds the polygons subside, which in turn allows drainage of ice-wedge polygon centers. This can create a connective drainage system that encourages runoff and therefore an overall drying of the landscape.
“It’s really the tipping point for the hydrology,” Liljedahl said. “Suddenly you’re draining the landscape and creating more runoff, even if the amount of precipitation remains the same. Instead of being absorbed by the tundra, the snowmelt water will run off into lakes and larger rivers. It really is a dramatic hydrologic change across the tundra landscape.”
apologies. probably should not rush to post when running out the door. I was up early yesterday to go lobby at the state capitol for clean energy.
did not really look at this till now.
Know what’s trending on Twitter as I write? A photoshopped giant dog, the latest Game of Thrones trailer and Kim Kardashian’s naked body. Actually, it’s mainly Kim Kardashian’s naked body and people’s responses to it. Followed by people’s responses to the responses.
Well put Sir, I went to BBC World News, and was very disappointed to see no mention of the amazing February anomaly as reported by NASA, NOAA and JMA. Then read an article about the top 10 global risks/threats. Astonished to read that a collapse from investment in the oil industry is perceived as the biggest threat to the World’s economy & security, and no mention at all of dangerous Climate Change (abrupt or gradual). If the populous is fed this it is not surprising that they fail to see the significance of a well over a two degree Celsius rise in the Northern Hemisphere Land surface statistics.
This months temp spike means nothin good. Especially in the context of the interesting news; we have about 14 years, before the block really starts gettin hot. MAYBE.
We’re sooooo screwed. “Mitigation” is no longer a viable option. Nor is “adaption”. There’s more CO2 in the atmosphere right now than there has been in the past 15 MILLION years. The hotter it gets, the less water there will be to go around. 4 billion are already facing water scarcity, where will water come from for 9 Billion expected humans in the near future?
Another eye-opening article by Dan Satterfield at the American Geophysical Union blog:
=> NASA- February Temperatures Hottest Ever
It’s not only the 5th month in a row that is topping temperature records by a big margin. Dan is also cleaning up some myths.
What would you think the beginnings of all those surmised positive feedbacks scientists have been warning us for years about – but were supposed to happen in some unspecified future – might look like today in the real world?
Jumps in the acceleration of temperature rise, sea level rise [10 mm last year], ice loss, methane generation [new records this year]? Quantum jumps in the power of bad weather – maybe like seeing sustained wind speeds of a typhoon suddenly resemble the wind speeds of a large tornado [Haiyan and now also Patricia @ 200-235mph] – or the start of routinely seeing nearly 3 feet of monsoon rainfall in a single day being forecast ?
Re “China […] recently announced the closure of around 1,000 coal mines”: China has closed 7250 coal mines in the last five years and recently announced the closure of another 4300. This will reducing China’s coal production by another 700 MT/year to about 5 GT/year.
http://www.mining.com/china-shutting-another-4300-coal-mines/
While I applaud any reduction in the use of coal, this may have little effect or perhaps even a small positive impact on temps.
The reason is that those dirty plants were probably causing enough sulfate aerosol pollution to offset any temp increase of CO2.
The link to the article at The Conversation is currently pointing to a .jpg of the image at the top of the article. Here’s the actual link for those who may wish to visit the source website: https://theconversation.com/februarys-global-temperature-spike-is-a-wake-up-call-56341
Thank you. I too looked for the source but got the jpg—couldn’t be bothered to search beyond, but it looks like Peter didn’t leave much if any of it out.
I share Ginger Baker’s thought that what is now occurring is what had been predicted for a long time, and wonder how much things are going to quiet down once the shift away from the El Nino occurs. Positive feedbacks lurk under every rock.
Something that is bumping around in the back of my head is the question of how much heat is really trapped in the ocean and what would be the result if it continued to be released a la El Nino. The thought of doing the math gives me a headache, and we don’t have really good ocean temp data, but water holds a lot of heat, and the thin skin of air could continue to heat up rapidly if ocean currents behave abnormally and disrupt global heat transfer.
Should have added, the heat capacity of water is large compared to other fluids, hence why it is used in cooling and heating systems. For pure water it is noted as 1.0 calories/gram/oC, ice (not freezing or thawing) is just 0.51 calories/gram/oC. When one considers the volume of the oceans viz a viz the atmosphere and then factor in the masses it is clear how much heat can be stored in water almost unnoticed except for the physical effects of rising sea level from expansion.
The amount of heat energy required to warm large masses of ice to the melting point should be clear but just a fraction of the heat energy required to phase change ice to water which is 80 calories/gram, and yet so much of the world’s cryosphere is in meltdown. Don’t expect most Trumplets to grasp these things, some do but avoid mention.
Yes, you are getting into the math that I wanted to avoid, but you reinforce my point. If we could gather all the oceans into a sphere and do the same with the atmosphere (at sea level density) the volumes would be not that much different in size but the mass of the oceans would be ~1000X greater. In very rough figures, that means one cubic centimeter of water losing one degree’s worth of “heat” to the atmosphere will raise the temperature of 1 liter of air by one degree. A lot of heat storage capacity there, and as this year’s El Nino shows, the ability to dump a lot of it into the atmosphere quickly.
http://boingboing.net/2008/03/11/all-the-water-and-ai.html
PS This graphic shows how thin the skin of water and and air that all life inhabits really is, as well as how small the volume is in relation to the size of the Earth. No wonder it’s starting to overflow and behave badly because of the garbage “civilization” is dumping into it.
I think this is what we could now be seeing with succeeding El Niño events, each one has more heat energy than the previous record one before. This is a tough call and where will the succeeding La Niña be like, anything like the one after that 97-98 El Niño peak.
In other words what will the charts here look like in a years time.
Reblogged this on A Green Road Daily News.
More and more articles from reliable sources are appearing on the negative state of the Arctic Circle – one of the latest from the University of Alaska Fairbanks on “Degrading ice wedges reshape Arctic landscape” epitomizes a positive feedback system, and it the degradation is widespread through Alaska, Canada and Russia.
The recent NASA GISS figures were shocking, the Northern Land Only anomaly was a heartbreaking +2.36°C. For those who like to think of conspiracy among scientists, JMA figures agree, and the Siberian Times prints an alarming picture of Russian temperature observations in Siberia.
This shocking story, of February’s temperature anomaly spike, has not even been mentioned in many well-known media outlets, such as the B.B.C, who we rely on to keep us informed.
I know I’m beginning to sound like a grumpy old man (which I am) writing a letter to the local newspaper, but there are many much younger than I urging action.
Maybe the temperature anomaly will level off in the variability of post EL Nino, but I wouldn’t count on it too much. Just because it has before doesn’t mean it will continue, as IBM likes to say THINK (Positive Feedbacks).
If the U.S election swings the wrong way it may be time to echo the hollowed words of Gene Roddenberry, D. C. Fontana, Harlan Ellison, David Gerrold, Theodore Sturgeon, Jerome Bixby, Norman Spinrad
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . “Scotty – Beam me up”
drat – hallowed words
Degrading ice wedges reshape Arctic landscape.
““Here we’re combining observations from people working in the field across the Arctic — Russia, Canada and Alaska — where we’re seeing the same ice wedge melting phenomenon,” said Liljedahl, the lead author of the study.
Such thawing could bring significant changes to the hydrology of much of the Arctic as it alters the ground-surface topography. Melting of ice wedge tops makes the ground that surrounds the polygons subside, which in turn allows drainage of ice-wedge polygon centers. This can create a connective drainage system that encourages runoff and therefore an overall drying of the landscape.
“It’s really the tipping point for the hydrology,” Liljedahl said. “Suddenly you’re draining the landscape and creating more runoff, even if the amount of precipitation remains the same. Instead of being absorbed by the tundra, the snowmelt water will run off into lakes and larger rivers. It really is a dramatic hydrologic change across the tundra landscape.”
http://news.uaf.edu/embargo-march-14-widespread-ice-wedge-thawing-seen-throughout-arctic/
The first 4 paragraphs are repeated. Please feel free to delete this post when you correct that.
apologies. probably should not rush to post when running out the door. I was up early yesterday to go lobby at the state capitol for clean energy.
did not really look at this till now.
It means that the electorate on both sides of the pond must have their heads buried deeper in the sands of denial & ignorance as is clear from the recent UK budget where Osborne’s Budget ‘For The Next Generation’ Fails On Climate Change
truly the populace is being encouraged to play whist the planet starts to burn as indicated by this post The Shocking Reality of Climate Change Kicks In – But Who Is Listening?,
Well put Sir, I went to BBC World News, and was very disappointed to see no mention of the amazing February anomaly as reported by NASA, NOAA and JMA. Then read an article about the top 10 global risks/threats. Astonished to read that a collapse from investment in the oil industry is perceived as the biggest threat to the World’s economy & security, and no mention at all of dangerous Climate Change (abrupt or gradual). If the populous is fed this it is not surprising that they fail to see the significance of a well over a two degree Celsius rise in the Northern Hemisphere Land surface statistics.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35828747
This months temp spike means nothin good. Especially in the context of the interesting news; we have about 14 years, before the block really starts gettin hot. MAYBE.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study
We’re sooooo screwed. “Mitigation” is no longer a viable option. Nor is “adaption”. There’s more CO2 in the atmosphere right now than there has been in the past 15 MILLION years. The hotter it gets, the less water there will be to go around. 4 billion are already facing water scarcity, where will water come from for 9 Billion expected humans in the near future?
https://theoldspeakjournal.wordpress.com/2016/03/01/co2-levels-reach-highest-point-in-15-million-years-water-scarcity-affects-4-billion-people/