Re: Hurricane Joaquin Threatens East Coast, Gains Strength Over Record-Hot Ocean
Sea surface temperatures in the vicinity of Hurricane Joaquin are currently the warmest ever recorded. Hurricanes are fueled by warm water, contributing to an increase in the frequency of the most intense hurricanes, and an exponential increase in damage. Virtually every measure of hurricane activity in the Atlantic has increased substantially since the 1970s, due to the combination of human-caused climate change and natural variation.
Joaquin sustained maximum sustained wind speeds of 125mph as it passed over the Bahamas, and its October appearance is drawing comparisons to Superstorm Sandy. Virginia and New Jersey governors have already declared a State of Emergency.
Simply put, climate change is causing more destructive hurricanes in the Northwest Atlantic. For more detailed information see Climate Nexus’ Hurricane backgrounder, and this note is also available.
The waters that Joaquin is moving into are at record or “much warmer than average” temperatures.
Rising sea levels increase the probability of storm-induced surges and flooding.
As the oceans absorb more heat they expand, elevating sea levels. And as glaciers and ice sheets melt, global sea level is rising, giving hurricane storm surge a higher platform from which to run up onto land.
The New York harbor, for example—one of the areas most damaged during Superstorm Sandy—has experienced nearly a footof sea level rise over the last century, compared to eight inches globally. Due to global warming, the risk of major New York City and New Jersey coastal flooding—like that observed during Superstorm Sandy—has increased from once every 500 years, to once every 25.
Climate change loads hurricanes with additional moisture, intensifying rainfall.
Hurricane Irene (2011) brought greater than five inches in totaland sometimes two to three inches per hour in some locations, leading to extreme flooding like the 500-year Schoharie Creek flood in New York.
Human-caused warming meant Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Ivan (2004) also carried significantly more rainfall, (6 to 8 percent more, relative to 1970). That increase may have contributed to the breach of the levees in New Orleans.
Warming air is projected to increase hurricane precipitation rates globallyby another 20 percentbefore the end of the century, leading to worse flooding worldwide.
Rising sea surface temperatures increase frequency of most severe hurricanes.
It is “virtually certain” that the intensity (or maximum sustained wind speed) of the strongest hurricanes has increased in the North Atlantic since 1970 due tohigher sea surface temperatureswhere Atlantic hurricanes form.
In the U.S., hurricanes accounted forseven out of ten of the costliest natural disasters from 1980 to 2014, with the top two occurring in the last 10 years.
Hurricane Katrina tops the list with 1,322 fatalities and overall losses of $125 billion. Superstorm Sandy is second with 127 fatalities and $65 billion in losses.
Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where model averages predict that a 2.5°C increase in global surface air temperature would increase hurricane damages by 63 percent.
The Eastern Seaboard’s growing population and dense infrastructure increase exposure to damage, but that is countered by vastly improved resilience (better building codes, better long range weather forecasting, etc). This means the overall damage trend cannot be attributed solely to changes in population or wealth and that climate change is responsible for some of the trend.
Yep, just as the models of the effects of AGW predicted it would. Very warm water = a lot of energy for tropical cyclones.
The good news here on the east coast is that the American model now agrees with the European model that Joaquin is likely to head out to sea and not make a direct hit on the U.S. Since the same “two days late” thing happened with Sandy (except that the U.S. model was late in predicting the turn in the opposite direction that time), it seems good. That’s what all our weather folks on the local channels are saying today anyway, and they would not miss a chance to go into “chicken little” mode if the confidence level was not very high.
Good news also for my daughter in South Jersey who had Sandy come within 6 inches of entering her house.
Well, that escalated quickly.
Yep, just as the models of the effects of AGW predicted it would. Very warm water = a lot of energy for tropical cyclones.
The good news here on the east coast is that the American model now agrees with the European model that Joaquin is likely to head out to sea and not make a direct hit on the U.S. Since the same “two days late” thing happened with Sandy (except that the U.S. model was late in predicting the turn in the opposite direction that time), it seems good. That’s what all our weather folks on the local channels are saying today anyway, and they would not miss a chance to go into “chicken little” mode if the confidence level was not very high.
Good news also for my daughter in South Jersey who had Sandy come within 6 inches of entering her house.
Florida and the Carolinas are notoriously in denial on climate. Well, Floridians and cohorts in the Carolinas – let’s see if you can deny this.
And the hits just keep onnnnnn comin.