Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in 2015 (red trace) may have already reached its maximum extent for the year. Image credit: National Institute of Polar Research (Japan).
In the past decade, we’ve seen two very dramatic collapses in arctic sea ice, 2007, and 2012. 2007 amounted to a ‘perfect storm” in terms of the various chaotic factors that came together to sweep away large swaths of ice cover. 2012 was a year most notable for not being notable – yet the ice still collapsed.
2013 and 13 saw what passes on Fox New for a “recovery” – we didn’t set new low records.
But now, ice watchers have started remarking on the set-up as we go into a new melt season. In this El Nino year (like 2007), could we be seeing another low record in the making?
Below, Bob Henson has taken over Jeff Master’s blogging chores at WeatherUnderground, and is tearing it up. I’m going to be reposting a lot of his stuff.
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km–roughly the size of California–below the record extent for the date.
Even more striking is the consistency of the ice loss over the last couple of weeks. March is often a time of rapid gains and losses in ice cover, as seasonal warming and melting battle it out with quick refreezing when shots of cold air return. This year, the ice extent peaked on February 15 at 13.94 million sq km, and it looks increasingly unlikely that the ice will manage to return to that very early peak over the next couple of weeks. No season in the Japanese database has fallen short of the 14-million mark, so if the February peak stands, it will mark the lowest maximum in the Arctic since satellite monitoring began in 1979.
Using a slightly different formula for calculating extent, the National Snow and Ice Data Center comes up with a similar record low for the date (Figure 2). In an update on March 4, NSIDC stated: “The Arctic maximum is expected to occur in the next two or three weeks. Previous years have seen a surge in Arctic ice extent during March (e.g., in 2012, 2014). However, if the current pattern of below-average extent continues, Arctic sea ice extent may set a new lowest winter maximum.” (As explained by NSIDC, “extent” measures the outer edge of where ice covers most of the ocean surface, with at least 15 percent of ice coverage required in a given grid cell. It’s a bit like measuring the size of a slice of Swiss cheese. “Area” is a more direct index of where ice actually exists–the cheese itself–but it’s also more prone to difficulty in satellite measurement.)
Figure 2. A closer look at Arctic sea ice extent for each year since 2007. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center/Charctic.
Not only is Arctic sea ice essential to many ecosystems: it serves as a powerful tracer of recent warming, and its absence in summer allows open water to absorb much more heat from sunlight. While the ice has seen some modest recovery in recent years, it has failed to fully mend the fabric torn by the record-setting drop of 2007. The overall thickness of the ice, and the fraction that’s survived for multiple years (multiyear ice), have both suffered major losses. A comprehensive survey just published in The Cryosphere found that ice thickness in the central Arctic dropped by 65 percent from 1975 to 2012.
In the ten days between February 25th and March 7th, swaths of sea ice floating across an area of the Arctic the size of Washington state simply vanished.
This sharp drop in Arctic sea ice, following on from a particularly low extent in February, may be a harbinger of a new record: the lowest maximum winter extent for Arctic sea ice in the satellite era.
Each year at the end of the warm season, falling temperatures cause ice to form atop Arctic waters and spread ever more widely during winter. The geographic extent of this ice typically reaches a maximum in the first or second week of March. After that, warming temperatures inexorably cause it to shrink until a minimum is reached, typically in September.
Thanks to human-caused global warming — which has affected the Arctic strongly — both the maximum winter extent of sea ice, and the minimum extent at the end of the warm season, have been getting smaller and smaller over the years.
February saw the third lowest extent of Arctic sea ice for the month. On February 25th, the ice actually stopped growing and began shrinking — two or three weeks before the long-term average peak. (Click on the thumbnail image at right for the details.)
In fact, between the 25th and March 7th, sea ice coverage shrank by 175,000 square kilometers, or 67,568 square miles. That’s slightly smaller than Washington state.
One caveat is in order: In 2012, and 2014, Arctic sea ice rallied during much of March, growing in extent past the usual peak. And it’s entirely possible that this will happen over the next few weeks. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Arctic sea ice typically hits its minimal area in September. This graph from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows where we are and where we’ve been in recent decades. Note the collapses in 2007 and 2012 were followed by “recoveries” that still follow the inexorable downward trend.
Below, my 2012 sea ice video – chronicling the last stunning sea ice drop, visible as the right-most negative spike on the graph above.
9 thoughts on “Is Arctic Sea Ice Heading for a New Low?”
At this time of year, I don’t check the NSIDC page very often but after seeing at the Climate Reanalyzer just how warm the Arctic has been of late, I ventured over for a look-see and was shocked at how far off the long-term average it was.
That said, it’s much too early to be speculating about a new low.
2012 had an extent much higher than 2007 and above any other recent year yet finished well below all of them.
And while everyone gets excited about extent, it’s the VOLUME that really matters to me as it’s a better indicator of how much or little heat is in the Arctic.
I look at that red trace and see how far off of the general trend it is already veering and can easily visualize where it’s heading. Unless some kind of late season “miracle” storm (I’m not holding my breath) creates enough ice to bump it up a notch, that line’s really going take a much further deviation path downward than it has in recent years. No bueno.
Yep, I had the same thoughts. And since we only have a few weeks left until April when the real decline begins in almost all years AND there appears to be no big freeze in sight, I’m betting on a new low this year in both extent and volume. Andy Lee’s “melting ice cube” graphic is on its way to finishing with just a puddle by 2020. No bueno indeed.
I’m not going to make any predictions, but I’ll produce another video if I still have the means!
The trend could not be clearer, but will it continue so steeply?
If the ice did disappear this year, it ought to finally change the direction of the ‘debate’ as irreversibly as the evolution of our planet’s climate.
The English teacher is demonstrating the use of negatives.
A negative and a positive equals a negative, she says, “There is none.” Strangely, two negatives equal a positive: “There isn’t none”, while being ungrammatical, actually means “there is some”. But there’s no case in which two positives equal a negative.”
And from the back of the room comes a laconic “Yeah, right.”
“it ought to finally change the direction of the ‘debate’ as irreversibly as the evolution of our planet’s climate.”
Yeah, right. Just like 1998, the Hottest Year Ever, settled the debate about whether the Earth was warming. If the ice disappears forever this year, Republicans will be able to say (and as a testament to the training classes offered at the Rainbows and Light Institute in Chicago, they’ll be able to do it utterly without irony):
“Sea ice decline stopped in 2015; there is no warming trend in the Arctic. So since the whole globe isn’t warming, there must be no global warming.”
W couldn’t have said it better. And the Republicans saying “Summer Arctic sea ice decline stopped in 2015, so there is no global warming” is perfectly believable and even logical in their world—–if there is NO arctic sea ice left in the summer, how can it “decline”? I wonder how they will explain the “decline” of winter ice as the Arctic continues to warm?
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Considering the albedo feedback that this is likely to generate, combined with an incipient El Niño, 2015 is shaping up to be a very warm year indeed.
At this time of year, I don’t check the NSIDC page very often but after seeing at the Climate Reanalyzer just how warm the Arctic has been of late, I ventured over for a look-see and was shocked at how far off the long-term average it was.
That said, it’s much too early to be speculating about a new low.
2012 had an extent much higher than 2007 and above any other recent year yet finished well below all of them.
And while everyone gets excited about extent, it’s the VOLUME that really matters to me as it’s a better indicator of how much or little heat is in the Arctic.
Every day it is still declining. It has now lost all of the gains for February. and then some.
About 10 days until sunrise in the Arctic.
I look at that red trace and see how far off of the general trend it is already veering and can easily visualize where it’s heading. Unless some kind of late season “miracle” storm (I’m not holding my breath) creates enough ice to bump it up a notch, that line’s really going take a much further deviation path downward than it has in recent years. No bueno.
Yep, I had the same thoughts. And since we only have a few weeks left until April when the real decline begins in almost all years AND there appears to be no big freeze in sight, I’m betting on a new low this year in both extent and volume. Andy Lee’s “melting ice cube” graphic is on its way to finishing with just a puddle by 2020. No bueno indeed.
I’m not going to make any predictions, but I’ll produce another video if I still have the means!
The trend could not be clearer, but will it continue so steeply?
If the ice did disappear this year, it ought to finally change the direction of the ‘debate’ as irreversibly as the evolution of our planet’s climate.
The English teacher is demonstrating the use of negatives.
A negative and a positive equals a negative, she says, “There is none.” Strangely, two negatives equal a positive: “There isn’t none”, while being ungrammatical, actually means “there is some”. But there’s no case in which two positives equal a negative.”
And from the back of the room comes a laconic “Yeah, right.”
“it ought to finally change the direction of the ‘debate’ as irreversibly as the evolution of our planet’s climate.”
Yeah, right. Just like 1998, the Hottest Year Ever, settled the debate about whether the Earth was warming. If the ice disappears forever this year, Republicans will be able to say (and as a testament to the training classes offered at the Rainbows and Light Institute in Chicago, they’ll be able to do it utterly without irony):
“Sea ice decline stopped in 2015; there is no warming trend in the Arctic. So since the whole globe isn’t warming, there must be no global warming.”
You misovererestimate your opponent.
“You misovererestimate your opponent”.
W couldn’t have said it better. And the Republicans saying “Summer Arctic sea ice decline stopped in 2015, so there is no global warming” is perfectly believable and even logical in their world—–if there is NO arctic sea ice left in the summer, how can it “decline”? I wonder how they will explain the “decline” of winter ice as the Arctic continues to warm?
Considering the albedo feedback that this is likely to generate, combined with an incipient El Niño, 2015 is shaping up to be a very warm year indeed.